Untitled - Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies

Untitled - Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ×ÏÍÃÉ
GEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
eqspertis azri
liana jervaliZe
rusuli gazis axali gza evropisaken,
ukrainis gverdis avliT - TurqeTze
politika da perspeqtivebi
39
2015
publikacia daibeWda amerikis SeerTebuli
Statebis saelCos finansuri mxardaWeriT.
redaqtori:
rusudan margiSvili
teqnikuri redaqtori:
artem meliq-nubarovi
saavtoro uflebebi daculia da ekuTvnis saqarTvelos strategiisa da
saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fonds. werilobiTi nebarTvis
gareSe wignis arc erTi nawili ar SeiZleba gadaibeWdos nebismieri,
maT Soris, eleqtronuli an meqanikuri formiT.
© saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso
urTierTobaTa kvlevis fondi 2015 weli
ISSN 1512-4835
ISBN 978-9941-0-7723-4
2014 wlis 1 dekembers prezidentma putinma TurqeTSi
vizitis dros ganacxada ruseTis gadawyvetilebis Sesaxeb,
gaauqmos samxreTis nakadis proeqti, vinaidan am proeqts evrokavSiri mxars ar uWers. putinma aseve ganacxada ruseTisa da
TurqeTis survilis Sesaxeb, aaSenon axali 63 mld m3 simZlavris
urTierTdamakavSirebeli gazsadeni, romelic „samrxeTis nakads“ Caanacvlebs, rogorc ukrainis gazis transportirebis
infrastruqturis gverdis avlis proeqti da uzrunvelyofs
TurqeTis didi xnis ocnebas _ gaxdes evropis energomomaragebis habi.
prezident putinis es gancxadeba sruli moulod­
neloba aRmoCnda da bevri kiTxvac warmoSva imis Sesaxeb, Tu
ramdenad aris SesaZlebeli samxreTis nakadis TurqeTze gada­
misamarTeba da ras moutans es rogorc rusul da Turqul,
ise sxva dainteresebul mxareebs.
rusuli gazis eqsportis pozicia evrokavSiris bazarze:
2013 wels gazpromma evrokavSirs miawoda 161 mld.m3 gazi,
rac am ukanasknelis moxmarebis daaxloebiT 30-32%-s Sead­
gens. aqedan 86 mld.m3 Setanil iqna ukrainis infrastruqtu­
riT. ruseTs evropis mimarTulebiT aqvs kidev sami milsadeni
_ Nord Stream _ 55 mld.m3, Yamal _ 32 mld.m3 da Blue Stream _ 16
mld. m31. rusuli da Turquli mxareebi SeTanxmdnen, rom am
ukanasknelis gamtaroba 2020 wlisaTvis wliur 19 mld.m3-mde
aiyvanon. am milsadenebis maqsimalurad datvirTvis SemTx­
vevaSi, gazproms SeeZleba ukrainis gverdis avliT daaxloe­
biT 100 mld.m3 gazi gaitanos evropaSi. Tu evropaSi gazis
bazari SeinarCuna (161 mld.m3 2013 wels), axali milsadenis
(Turquli nakadi?) aSenebamde 60 mld. m3 gazis gatana isev
ukrainis infrastruqturis gamoyenebiT mouwevs. oficial­
uri informaciiT, „Turquli nakadis“ simZlavre 63 mld.m3
unda iyos, rac imas niSnavs, rom gazproms ganzraxuli aqvs
srulad auaros gverdi ukrainas.
amasTan, rusuli gazis evrokavSirSi eqsportis 50%ze meti (87 mld.m3) TurqeTis gavliT iqneba gatanili.
eqspertTa didi nawili Tanxmdeba imaze, rom evrokav­
Siri ver SeZlebs 2020 wlamde (SesaZloa, verc 2025 wlamde)
rusuli gazi 50 da, miT umetes, 100 procentiT sxva mimwodeb­
1 www.gasprom.com
3
lis gaziT Caanacvlos da Tanac alternatiuli gazi rusul
gazze ufro dabal fasad miiRos.
samxreTis nakadis mniSvneloba ruseTisaTvis: „samxre­
Tis nakadi“ iyo geostrategiuli mniSvnelobis proeqti, ro­
melic ara marto gverds auvlida ruseTisTvis „rTul sa­
tranzito partniors _ ukrainas“, aramed uzrunvelyofda
ruseTis energetikul da ekonomikur eqspansias samxreT-aR­
mosavleT da centralur evropaSi.
aRniSnulidan gamomdinare da imis gaTvaliswinebiT,
rom ruseTi ekonomikurad (realuri mSp _ 2,017 trilioni
dolari)2 da samxedro TvalsazrisiT bevrad CamorCeba ev­
rokavSirs (realuri mSp _ 17,372 trilioni dolari)3, mas
dasavleTTan samxedro dapirispireba da konfliqti xels ar
unda aZlevdes. Tumca zogjer politikuri gadawyvetilebebi
logikas ar eqvemdebareba.
„samxreTis nakadis“ blokireba da „TurqeTis nakadis“
ganxorcieleba sruliad axal realobebs qmnis rogorc evro­
kavSiris, ruseTisa da TurqeTisaTvis, ise kaspiispireTis re­
gionisTvis. es realobebi SeiZleba mdgomareobdes SemdegSi:
ruseTis savaraudo mokle- an saSualovadiani taqtikuri amocanebi: TurqeTi evrokavSiris wevri ar aris, amitom
masze mesame energetikuli paketis moTxovnebi ar vrcelde­
ba. ruseTi „samxreTis nakadis“ TurqeTze gadamisamarTebiT
cdilobs Tavi aaridos mesame energetikuli paketis moqmede­
bas da SeinarCunos evrokavSiris bazari SeZlebisdagvarad
misTvis misaReb farglebSi, gaamyaros geostrategiuli da
geoenergetikuli urTierTobebi TurqeTTan, xeli Seuwyos
TurqeTsa da dasavleTs Soris warmoqmnili uTanxmoebis
gaRr­mavebas, rogorc natos formatSi, ise evrogaerTianebis
da savaWro formatSi, gaaRrmavos interesTa dapirispireba
TviTon evrokavSiris Zvel wevrebsa da samxreT-aRmosavleT
evropis axal wevrebs Soris, romlebic samxreTis nakadis
gauqmebiT ekonomikurad dazaraldenen, da gamoiyenos es da­
pirispireba sakuTari interesebisaTvis, maT Soris _ evropaSi
eqspansiisTvis.
2 www.statista.com
3 www.nankrate.com
4
TurqeTis savaraudo strategiuli monaxazi: TurqeTis
didi xnis gacxadebuli amocana aris gaxdes evrokavSiris
sruli wevri, transatlantikuri Tavisufali vaWrobis Sesa­
xeb mimdinare molaparakebebis sruluflebiani mxare, ev­
rokavSiris gaziT momaragebis habi, anu ara mxolod gaata­
ros, aramed iyidos da gadayidos iranuli, azerbaijanuli,
Turqmenuli, CrdiloeT erayis da axla ukve ruseTis gazi.
CamoTvlili savaraudo mimwodeblebidan yvelaze sando, ro­
gorc resursuli bazis, ise geopolitikuri TvalsazrisiT,4
aris ruseTi, miT umetes, Tu laparakia arsebuli resursebis
ukrainuli satranzito mimarTulebidan gadamisamarTebaze.
TurqeTis mokle- da saSualovadiani taqtikuri amocanebi _ ruseTTan strategiuli daaxloebis afiSirebiT
dasavleTis yuradReba miipyros grZelvadiani strategiuli
amocanebis Sesasruleblad.
oficialuri mediis da wyaroebis mixedviT, TurqeTi
ukmayofiloa imiT, rom miuxedavad ramdenime aTeuli wlis
asocirebis SeTanxmebisa, ver xdeba evrokavSiris sruli
wevri, axlo aRmosavleTSi mimdinare procesebi ar mimdin­
areobs TurqeTis, rogorc natos mniSvnelovani samxedro
Zalis mqone qveynis interesebis sruli gaTvaliswinebiT da,
piriqiT, es procesebi SeiZleba swored mis winaaRmdeg Semob­
rundes. amasTan, TurqeTi ar aris miwveuli mxared Tavisu­
fali vaWrobis Sesaxeb aSS-sa da evrokavSirs Soris mimdinare
molaparakebebSi.5
evrokavSiris gaziT momaragebis „haboba“, anu „samxre­
Tis nakadis“ gadamisamarTeba TurqeTs rogorc dasavleTis­
Tvis (evrokavSiri, aSS), ise aRmosavleTisaTvis (kaspiispire­
Ti, axlo aRmosavleTi da Tavad ruseTi umniSvnelovanesi
Zalis poziciaze gaiyvans). ruseTisTvis ki „samxreTis naka­
dis“ arsebuli saxiT SenarCuneba ufro mniSvnelovani iyo,
vinaidan SeTanxmebebi dadebulia im formiT, rogoric uz­
4
ruseTisa da TurqeTis interesebi srulad emTxveva erTmaneTs Savi
zRvis regulirebis da am sivrceSi usafrTxoebis sakiTxebSi.
5 2015 wlis ianvris Sua ricxvebSi karl biltisa da havier solanas mier
gamoqveynebul Ria werilSi miTiTebulia aSS-sa da evrokavSirs Soris
Tavisufali vaWrobis Sesaxeb mimdinare molaparakebebSi TurqeTis
CarTvis aucileblobaze.
5
runvelyofs ruseTis gavlenis gazrdas samxreT-aRmosav­
leT evropaze xangrZlivi drois ganmavlobaSi. TurqeTTan
energetikuli urTierTobebis axali formati ki misi sagareo
urTierTobebis srul revizias moiTxovs, rac veravin ityvis,
Tu rogori SedegiT dasruldeba. amasTan TurqeTi, rogorc
azerbaijanisa da iranis gamocdileba aCvenebs, ar aris mar­
tivi savaWro da satranzito partniori.6
raSi mdgomareobs „TurqeTis nakadi“ _ es gulisxmobs
4 paraleluri milis7 aSenebas Savi zRvis fskerze, ruseTis
napiridan TurqeTis evropul nawilamde. igi ar uerTdeba
dagegmil tanapis _ TANAP gazsadens, romelic samxreTis ga­
zis koridoris nawilia da romelmac azerbaijanuli gazi
unda miawodos evropas. „TurqeTis nakadis“ gamtaroba 63
mld.m3 unda iyos. pirveli 15 mld.m3 gamtarobis milis gay­
vana 2016 wlis dekemberSi unda dasruldes. gazproms am ra­
odenobis gazis gayidva TurqeTSi, bulgareTsa da rumineTSi
Tavisuflad SeuZlia. Tumca danarCeni 45 miliardi m3-isa ev­
ropaSi gauWirdeba, iq saTanado infrastruqtura ar aris da
mis aSenebas gazpromi arc apirebs8. amitom, rogorc rusuli
mxare acxadebs, Tu evrokavSirs rusuli gazis miReba surs,
infrastruqturis Seqmnaze Tavadve unda izrunos.
„samxreTis nakadis“ „TurqeTis nakadad“ gadaqceva
sruliad axal viTarebas qmnis rogorc ruseTisa da Turqe­
TisaTvis, ise ukrainisa da evrokavSirisaTvis.
ukraina _ gazpromis kontraqti naftogazTan gazis
miwodebis da evropaSi gazis tranzitis Sesaxeb 2019 wels
iwureba. mxareebi ar awarmoeben molaparakebebs gazis miwo­
debis da tranzitis Sesaxeb. amdenad, Tu axali kontraqti ar
daido, ukrainis gverdis avla bunebrivad moxdeba. ukraina
dakargavs rusuli gazis tranzits da masTan erTad zemoq­
medebis berkets ruseTze.
6 TurqeTsa da azerbaijans Soris gazis fasis Sesaxeb molaparakebebi
ori wlis, 2008-2010 ww., ganmavlobaSi mimdinarebda, TurqeTi mudmivad
iTxovs momwodeblisgan (ruseTi, irani) gazis fasis daklebas.
7 gazpromi apirebs gamoiyenos „samxreTis nakadisTvis“ gamzadebuli mile­
bi.
8 www.caspianbarrel.org, Michael Korchemkhin, East European Gas Analysis
6
aRmosavleT evropis satranzito qveynebi _ rusuli gazis tranzitis dakargva da satranzito Semosavlebis dakargva:
gazproms milsadenebis gamoyenebis an gadaxdis Sesaxeb e.w.
use or pay valdebuleba aqvs evrokavSiris yvela satranzito
qveyanasTan, romelzec gadis rusuli gazi9. am kontraqtebis
ZiriTadi nawili ZalaSia 2025 wlamde, rac ukrainas saSuale­
bas aZlevs ivaraudos, rom rusuli gazis tranziti misi ter­
itoriis gavliT 2025 wlamde gagrZeldeba.10 Tumca aq sagu­
lisxmoa, rom gazproms es kontraqtebi da maTgan momdinare
valdebulebebi gaTvaliswinebuli eqneba, vinaidan „samxreTis
nakadze“ muSaoba 2006 wels daiwyo.
gazproms „samxreTis nakadis“ ganxorcielebis SemTx­
vevaSic mouxdeboda slovakeTis da SesaZlo sxva satranzi­
to qveynebis gazsadenebis gamouyeneblobis gamo use or pay-s11
pirobiT pirgasamtexlos gadaxda. savaraudoa, rom gazpro­
mi „samxreTis nakadis“ datvirTvas ukrainis da slovakeTis
mimarTulebiT arsebuli satranzito kontraqtebis vadis
amowurvis paralelurad gazrdida.
gazis tranzitis sezonuri regulireba: ukrainis sa­
tranzito mimarTuleba idealuria rusuli gazis evrokav­
SirSi gasatanad ukrainaSi arsebuli ara mxolod gazsadenebis
infrastruqturis, aramed gazsacavebis gamoc12.
gazis eqsportis sezonuri regulirebisaTvis „cis­
feri nakadiT“ an „samxreTis nakadiT“ gazproms ruseTis
samxreT nawilSi aqvs ganTavsebuli 5 mld.m3-ze meti Semcve­
lobis gazsacavebi krasnodaris da stavropolis mxareSi. amas
garda, gazproms srul (0,2 mln m3) an nawilobriv (4,5 mld.m3)
marTvaSi aqvs aRebuli gazsacavebi holandiaSi, germaniaSi,
9 What Are the big European Suppliers Going to Do to Model Their Supply to European
Market? Tatiana Mitrova, Head of Oil and Gas Department, Energy Research Institute of
RAS, Vienna, January 29, 2014
10 Michail Korchemkin, “Can Russia, Ukraine and EU Reach a Gas Agreement?” East European Gas Analysis, Malvern, Pennsylvania, USA, Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace, Washington DC, October 2013
11use or pay gulisxmobs milsadenebis gamouyeneblobis SemTxvevaSi pir­
gasamtexlos gadaxdas, amasTan gansazRvrulia minimaluri simZlavre,
romelze naklebi simZlavris gamoyenebis SemTxvevaSic moijare valde­
bulia gadaixados pirgasamtexlo.
12 ukraina-slovakeTis sazRvarze ukrainas aqvs 30 mld. m3 gazsacavebi,
didi Semcvelobis gazsacavebia slovakeTSic.
7
italiaSi, CexeTsa da serbeTSi13. savaraudoa, rom gazproms
`samxreTis nakadis~ formatSi hqonda ijariT aRebuli ze­
moT aRniSnuli gazsacavebi, radgan ukrainis da slovakeTis
gazsacavebze gaTvlas veRar gaakeTebda14. amitom TurqeTze
gadamisamarTebis SemTxvevaSi problemad darCeba saxmeleTo
gazsadenebis statusi, mimarTuleba da gayidvis adgili da
ara _ gazsacavebi.
TurqeTis oficialuri wyaroebis cnobiT, TurqeTi
apirebs Tavisi satranzito potenciali _ milsadenebis gam­
taroba _ 110 mld m3 aiyvanos, rac tanapis garda kidev erTi
an ori milsadenis aSenebas gulisxmobs15. amasTan, TurqeTs
SesaZlebloba eqneba moizidos saerTaSoriso dafinanseba
(ruseTisgan gansxvavebiT).
TurqeTi evrokavSiris momaragebis habi, teqnikuri
aspeqti: imisaTvis, rom TurqeTi evrokavSiris gazis habi gax­
des, unda akmayofilebdes ramdenime pirobas: hqondes didi
simZlavris gazsadenebis infrastruqtura, mniSvnelovani
simZlavris gazsacavebi da myidvelebi da gamyidvelebi unda
SeTanxmdenen TurqeTze, rogorc gazis yidva/gayidvis adgil­
ze, rac saTanado savaWro finansuri platformebis arseboba­
sac gulisxmobs TurqeTSi. TurqeTi dRes arc erT am pirobas
ar akmayofilebs da mniSvnelovani dro, energia da finansuri
resursebi iqneba saWiro imisaTvis, rom TurqeTi evrokav­
Siris gazis habis kondiciamde mivides.
TurqeTi _ evrokavSiris momaragebis habi, geopolitikuri aspeqti: TurqeTi didi oceulis wevri mzardi ekonomikis
da ruseTis Semdeg meore samxedro Zalis mqone regionuli
qveyanaa. igi awarmoebs damoukidebel sagareo politikas da
cdilobs sakuTari interesebi gaitanos rogorc regionul,
ise saerTaSoriso asparezze. aseT mZlavr partniorze mTeli
axlo aRmosavleTis, ruseTis da kaspiispireTis resursebis
tranzitis mindoba da habad Camoyalibeba SeiZleba samo­
mavlod mniSvnelovan riskebs Seicavdes. Tumca SesaZloa
TurqeTi misaReb da sando momrigebel-Suamaval Zaladac
13 www.gasprom.com
14 vinaidan samxreTis nakadi orives gverds auvlida, rac, bunebrivia, maT
ukmayofilebas gamoiwvevda.
15 Turkey’s Role as a Mega Energy Hub, Natural Gas Europe, www.naturalgaseurope.com
22 December 2014
8
Camoyalibdes regionSi, Tu igi gaxdeba evrokavSiris sruli
wevri da Tavis Sida bazarze danergavs mesame paketiT gaTva­
liswinebul regulaciebs16.
ruseT/TurqeTis energetikuli aliansi, TurqeTis sruli wevroba evrokavSirSi: evrokavSirSi ekonomikuri recesiaa,
TurqeTi ki ekonomikur zrdas da stabilurobas aCvenebs.
TurqeTis energetikul habad gadaqceva saintereso iqneba
evrokavSirisaTvis, Tu is evrokavSiris sruli wevri gaxdeba,
aqedan gamomdinare yvela SedegiT (harmonizacia, mesame pa­
keti da a.S.). amasTan, evrokavSiris wevrobis SemTxvevaSi, is
ver iqneba meorexarisxovani wevri qveyana, is iqneba rogorc
mosaxleobidan, ise ekonomikidan da samxedro siZlieridan
gamomdinare, rigiT meore Tu ara, mesame qveyana. aseT SemTx­
vevaSi TurqeTi evrokavSiris SigniT gadawyvetilebebze gav­
lenas moipovebs. aqamde amas ewinaaRmdegebodnen evrokav­
Siris wamyvani (germania, safrangeTi) qveynebi.
TurqeTs ainteresebs agreTve gaxdes transatlanti­
kuri Tavisufali vaWrobis Sesaxeb molaparakebebis monawile
mxare (molaparakebebi mimdinareobs aSS-sa da evrokavSirs
Soris).
amdenad, ruseT-TurqeTis daaxloebis strategiul
partniorobad Camoyalibeba damokidebuli iqneba imaze,
ramdenad miiRebs TurqeTs Tanasworuflebian partniorad
dasavleTi, atlantikis orive mxares. amitom savaraudoa, rom
TurqeTi ruseTTan daaxloebis SesaZleblobas dasavleTze
gavlenis iaraRadac iyenebdes iseve, rogorc `TurqeTis na­
kadis~ wamowevas _ „samxreTis nakadis“ arsebuli formatiT
ganxorcielebisaTvis.
„samxreTis nakadis“ TurqeTze gadamisamarTebis SesaZ­
lo Sedegebi samxreTis gazis derefanze
samxreTis nakadi ar iyo gaTvlili axal resursul ba­
zaze, mas igive resursebi ukrainis gverdis avliT unda mi­
etana evrokavSiris bazarze. amitom azerbaijanuli mxare am
proeqts konkurentul proeqtad ar ganixilavda. Tu samxre­
16 evrokavSirTan sruli wevrobis saSualebiT, ris Semdegac misi Sida
regu­
laciebi TurqeTis energetikul seqtorzec gavrceldeba, Turqe­
Tis nakadi rom aSendes, rusuli gazi iseve Sav zRvaze SeizRudeba.
9
Tis nakadi TurqeTis gavliT imave formatSi darCa (mxolod
ukrainaze gamavali nakadebi gadaamisamarTa), igi ver iqneba
samxreTis gazis koridoris konkurentuli, romelic axal
resursul bazaze aris gaTvlili da Teoriulad evropis
gazis mopovebis Sida wyaroebis dacemis Sedegad warmoqm­
nili mzardi deficiti unda Seavsos. amitom am deficitis
Sesavsebad azerbaijanuli, iranuli da/an Turqmenuli gazis
garkveul raodenobaze moTxovna evrokavSiris bazarze mainc
iqneba (Tu evrokavSiris gazis bazarze moTxovna arsebul do­
neze mainc iqna SenarCunebuli).
amasTan, savaraudod, `TurqeTis nakadis“ winswrebiT
ganxorcieleba Tu ar Seaferxebs, Seanelebs mainc Turqmenu­
li an/da iranuli gazis CarTvas samxreTis gazis koridorSi.
rac, rasakvirvelia, saqarTvelos, rogorc satranzito qvey­
nis, interesebze uaryofiTad aisaxeba.
aseve sayuradReboa, rom „samxreTis nakadis“ axali
varianti, e.w. „TurqeTis nakadi“, evrokavSirSi unda Sevi­
des imave TurqeT-saberZneTis gziT, iseve, rogorc azerbai­
januli, iranuli, CrdiloeT erayuli an Turqmenuli gazi.
saberZneTSi ki bolo arCevnebSi evroskeptikurma memarc­
xene partiam gaimarjva, rac bevr kiTxvas badebs saberZneTis
evrokavSirSi darCenasTan Tu ara, mis saimedo satranzito
partniorobasTan dakavSirebiT.
garda saberZneTis gzisa, gazis es nakadi SeiZleba ga­
dasrolil iqnes bulgareTis gavliTac e.w. nabuqo vestis
(Nabucco West) trasiT avstriis baumgartneramde. amgvarad,
TurqeT-saberZneTis sazRvridan gazi SeiZleba gadasrolil
iqnes rogorc tapis _ TAP _ transadriatikuli gazsadenis,
ise Zveli nabuqo vestis (Nabucco West) trasiT. an SesaZloa
gamoyenebul iqnes bulgareT/TurqeTis damakavSirebeli e.w.
dasavleTis milsadeni, romliTac rusuli gazi miewodeba
stambolis aglomeracias, rasakvirvelia, am milsadenis re­
versirebis SemTxvevaSi, vinaidan arsebul formatSi (Crdil­
oeTidan samxreTisaken) am milsadenis gamoyenebas vada 2022
wels ewureba.
rogorc TurqeTis oficialuri pirebi iuwyebian,
tanapi da azerbaijanTan strategiuli partnioroba priori­
tetulad rCeba TurqeTisaTvis. amasTan, aSkaraa da swrafi
10
tempebiT mimdinareobs azerbaijanis daaxloeba ruseTTan,
romelic 2012 wels daiwyo.
bulgareTi, rogorc „samxreTis nakadis“ ganxor­
cielebaSi dainteresebuli mxare, ganagrZobs moqmedebas am
proeqtis garkveuli formiT SesanarCuneblad. 2014 wlis 15
dekembers bulgareTis premier-ministri boiko borisovi ger­
manias ewvia, sadac germanul mxares sTxova mxari dauWiros
„samxreTis nakadis“ ganxorcielebas imgvarad, rom bulgareTi
gaxdes rusuli gazis `habi~ evrokavSirisaTvis.17 am winadade­
bas jer oficialuri mxardaWera ar mohyolia, arc ruseTis
mxaris komentarebi gavrcelebula. sazogadod, rusuli ga­
zis habi _ gayidvis adgili bulgareTSi an TurqeTSi zRudavs
ruseTis strategiul eqspansias samxreT-aRmosavleT evro­
paSi, rasac, garda gazis miwodebisa, emsaxureboda „samxreTis
nakadi“.
aRniSnulidan gamomdinare, ruseTisTvis yvelaze
mniSv­nelovani proeqti iyo „samxreTis nakadi“ arsebuli for­
miT, bulgareTsa da TurqeTSi habis gareSe. amdenad, „Turqe­
Tis nakadis“ SeTavazebuli proeqti iZulebiTi nabiji unda
iyos ruseTisaTvis evrokavSiris winaaRmdegobis sapasuxod.
TurqeTisaTvis es Slis evrokavSiris gaziT momaragebis
habad Camoyalibebis perspeqtivas.
daskvnis saxiT
teqnikuri TvalsazrisiT
• „TurqeTis nakadis“ aSeneba, gansakuTrebiT misi pirveli
da SeiZleba meore milsadenisac, SesaZlebelia, vinaidan
`gazpromi~ gamoiyenebs „samxreTis nakadisTvis“ gamzade­
bul milsadenebs, damatebiTi xarjebis gawevis gareSe;
• TurqeTSi gazis habis CamoyalibebisaTvis sakmao dro, fi­
nansebi da Zalisxmeva iqneba saWiro, amasTan mxareebi (ev­
rokavSiri da ruseTi da sxva mimwodeblebi) unda SeTanxm­
dnen TurqeTSi gayidvis `habis~ Seqmnaze. es procesic
droSi xangrZlivi da Sromatevadi iqneba;
17 Natural Gas Europe, www.naturalgaseurope.com
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• TurqeT-saberZneTis sazRvris Semdeg gazis transporti­
re­bis infrastruqtura ar arsebobs da misi Seqmna evrokav­
Sirs Tavad mouwevs, aqedan gamomdinare finansuri xarje­
biT.
geopolitikuri TvalsazrisiT
ruseTisa da TurqeTis geostrategiuli da geoenerge­
tikuli daaxloeba:
• xels Seuwyobs TurqeTsa da dasavleTs Soris warmoqmni­
li uTanxmoebis gaRrmavebas rogorc natos formatSi,
ise evrogaerTianebis da savaWro formatSi, gaaRrmavebs
inte­resTa dapirispirebas TviTon evrokavSiris Zvel wev­
rebsa da samxreT-aRmosavleT evropis axal wevrebs So­
ris, romlebic samxreTis nakadis gauqmebiT ekonomikurad
dazaraldnen.
• azerbaijanis da, savaraudod, kaspiispireTis sxva qveyne­
bis CarTuloba am orbitaze sruliad moSlis dasavleT/
aR­mosavleTis energetikuli derefnis, rogorc rusuli
derefnis, alternativis ganviTarebis perspeqtivebs yve­
la misi SedegiT.
• ruseT-TurqeTis daaxloebis energetikis sferoSi stra­
te­giul partniorobad Camoyalibeba safrTxes Seuqm­
nis samxreTis energetikuli koridoris Camoyalibebas
TurqmeneTis (SesaZloa iranis) monawileobiT da saqarT­
velos, rogorc satranzito qveynis, pozicias regionSi.
• ruseT-TurqeTis daaxloeba pirveli msoflio omis Sem­
deg saqarTvelos gasabWoebiT dasrulda. SeiZleba ru­
seT-TurqeTis daaxloebas da mis gadazrdas strategiul
partniorobaSi isev arasasurveli Sedegebi mohyves. aseTi
strategiuli partniorobis SemTxvevaSi, saqarTvelos da­
moukidebloba arsebul teritoriul farglebSi mxolod
aSS-isa da evrokavSiris sruli mxardaWeriT gaxdeba SesaZ­
lebeli.
12
bibliografia:
1.
Katja Yafimava, The Transit Dimension of EU Energy Security, Russian Gas Transit
Across Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova, Oxford Institute Energy Studies,2011
2.
What Are the Big European Suppliers Going to Do to Model Their Supply to European
Market? Tatiana Mitrova, Head of Oil and Gas Department, Energy Research Institute
of RAS, Vienna, January 29, 2014
3.
Michail Korchemkhin, “Can Russia, Ukraine and EU Reach a Gas Agreement?” East
European Gas Analysis, Malvern, Pennsylvania, USA, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington DC, October 2013
4.
Kemal Kirisci, “Turkey and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Boosting the Model Partnership with the United States”, The Center on the US and Europe
at Brookings, Turkey project policy paper Number 2 • September 2013
5.
Turkey’s Role as a Mega Energy Hub, Natural Gas Europe, 22 December 2014
6.
www.naturalgaseurope.com
7.
www.gasprom.com
8.
www.eucommission.org
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