Strauch_Prod-Agua_2012

IWAS
Brazil
ÁGUA-DF
The impact of conservation management practices on
simulated streamflow and sediment loss in the
Pipiripau River basin.
Michael Strauch, Albano Araújo, Jorge E.F.W. Lima,
Martin Volk, Carsten Lorz, Franz Makeschin
1a. Oficina sobre Monitoramento Hidroambiental da bacia do Pipiripau
Brasília, September 28 2012
Funded by
Patrocinado
por
1
1a. Oficina sobre Monitoramento Hidroambiental da bacia do Pipiripau
IWAS
Brazil
ÁGUA-DF
1
Motivation & Objectives
Population in thousands in the DF
Rural
 Increasing risk of water scarcity due to
 population growth & land use change
 in the Federal District, Brasilia (DF)
Urban
 IWAS/Água-DF: Research project to
 support IWRM for the DF
 Program ‘Produtor de Água’: Support of
 sustainable management by Payments
 for Environmental Services (PES)
Lorz et al. 2011
Land use change in the DF
Other
Urban
Agriculture
How effective are Best Management
Practices (BMPs) in reducing sediment
loads and what is their effect on water
quantity?
Cerrado
Mata
1954 1964 1973 1984 1994 1998 2001 2006
Lorz et al. 2011
2
1a. Oficina sobre Monitoramento Hidroambiental da bacia do Pipiripau
IWAS
Brazil
ÁGUA-DF
2
Methods
The SWAT model
(Arnold et al., 1998)
 Integrated watershed modeling system
 Process-based, semi-distributed (HRUs)
 Model components include: weather,

hydrology,

erosion/sedimentation,
ArcSWAT

plant growth,

nutrients,

pesticides,

agricultural management

…
http://swatmodel.tamu.edu/
ArcGIS
Source: http://geo.arc.nasa.gov (modified)
3
1a. Oficina sobre Monitoramento Hidroambiental da bacia do Pipiripau
IWAS
Brazil
ÁGUA-DF
2
Methods
Study area
Pipiripau River Basin (PRB)
(catchment of gauge Montante Captação 188 km²)
Source: BRASIL (2010)
4
1a. Oficina sobre Monitoramento Hidroambiental da bacia do Pipiripau
IWAS
Brazil
ÁGUA-DF
2
Methods
Rain input ensemble and model calibration
TAQ
TAQM
THIE
TRMM
gauge Taquara
uniform rainfall
Moving average of TAQ
uniform rainfall
Thiessen polygons
spatial distributed rainfall
TRMM radar data
spatial distributed rainfall
Sensitivity Analysis (van Griensven et al., 2006) to identify calibration parameter
Automatic model calibration (SUFI-2, Abbaspour et al., 2004)
5
1a. Oficina sobre Monitoramento Hidroambiental da bacia do Pipiripau
IWAS
Brazil
ÁGUA-DF
3
Results
Model calibration
6
1a. Oficina sobre Monitoramento Hidroambiental da bacia do Pipiripau
IWAS
Brazil
ÁGUA-DF
3
Results
Model performance - Streamflow
(R²: 0.68) (R²: 0.79)
(NSE: 0.67) (NSE: 0.57)
7
1a. Oficina sobre Monitoramento Hidroambiental da bacia do Pipiripau
IWAS
Brazil
ÁGUA-DF
3
Results
Model performance – Sediment load
(R²: 0.37)
(R²: 0.52)
(R²: 0.37)
0.73) (NSE:
(R²: -2.10)
0.64)
(NSE:
(NSE: 0.71) (NSE: -2.08)
8
1a. Oficina sobre Monitoramento Hidroambiental da bacia do Pipiripau
IWAS
Brazil
ÁGUA-DF
2
Multi-diverse crop rotation (ROT)
Methods
 implemented on cropland instead
 of soybean and corn monocultures
BMP scenarios
Terraces (TER)
Source: BRASIL (2010)
 implemented on pasture and
 cropland
 USLE P-Factor: 0.5 => 0.12
 Curve Number: calibr. value -5
Barraginhas (BAR)
Source: BRASIL (2010)
 simulated as ponds in different
 quantities
 pond parameters derived by
 GIS and expert knowledge
 SWAT code modification:
 only surface runoff is routed
 through ponds
 all scenarios were run in different quantities of
 implementation
9
1a. Oficina sobre Monitoramento Hidroambiental da bacia do Pipiripau
IWAS
Brazil
ÁGUA-DF
BMP scenario results
Average percentage changes to Baseline scenario (without BMP)
10
1a. Oficina sobre Monitoramento Hidroambiental da bacia do Pipiripau
IWAS
Brazil
ÁGUA-DF
3
Results
BMP scenarios
Cumulative distribution of daily model
predictions for period 2004-2009…
11
1a. Oficina sobre Monitoramento Hidroambiental da bacia do Pipiripau
IWAS
Brazil
ÁGUA-DF
3
Results
BMP scenarios
Costs of implementation (BRASIL, 2010)
12
1a. Oficina sobre Monitoramento Hidroambiental da bacia do Pipiripau
IWAS
Brazil
ÁGUA-DF
3
Results
BMP scenarios
Cost-Benefit-Analysis
13
1a. Oficina sobre Monitoramento Hidroambiental da bacia do Pipiripau
IWAS
Brazil
ÁGUA-DF
4
Summary and Conclusions
 Considering the water provisioning service and ecological low-flow requirements
for the PRB...
… Crop rotation with irrigation during dry season is no option!
… Erosion control / sediment constructions are promising BMPs
(not effective on low flow / total water yield, but up to 40% reduction
of sediment load)
 Model results plausible, however problems regarding…
… Model performance (sediment loads)
… Rain input (ensemble is advantageous but has limitations)
… Reference data (sediment)
… Process representation in general (semi-humid tropics!) and for BMPs
 Pilot program ‘Produtor de Água‘ as a chance to study the effects of BMPs
 (monitoring!) and thus to evaluate process / BMP representation in SWAT
14
1a. Oficina sobre Monitoramento Hidroambiental da bacia do Pipiripau
IWAS
Brazil
ÁGUA-DF
Muito obrigado!
Abbaspour, K.C., Johnson, C., van Genuchten, M.T., 2004. Estimating Uncertain Flow and Transport Parameters Using a
Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Procedure. Vadose Zone Journal, 3: 1340-1352.
Arnold, J.G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R., Williams, J., 1998. Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment part I: Model
development. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 34: 73-89.
BRASIL, 2010. Programa Produtor de Água - Relatório de Diagnóstico Socioambiental da Bacia do Ribeirão Pipiripau.
Brasília, DF, pp. 59
Lorz, C., Abbt-braun, G., Bakker, F., Borges, P., et al., 2011. Challenges of an integrated water resource management for the Distrito
Federal, Western Central Brazil: climate, land-use and water resources. Environmental Earth Sciences, 65: 1575-1586.
van Griensven, A., Meixner, T., Grunwald, S., Bishop, T., Diluzio, M., Srinivasan, R., 2006. A global sensitivity analysis tool15
for
the parameters of multi-variable catchment models. Journal of Hydrology, 324: 10-23.
1a. Oficina sobre Monitoramento Hidroambiental da bacia do Pipiripau
IWAS
Brazil
ÁGUA-DF
Rating curve to derive daily turbidity
Correlation between TU and CSS: CSS = 1.114 TU + 1.4731
[R² = 0.958]
16
1
IWAS
Overview – Phd thesis
Rainfall uncertainty & SWAT
Rainfall input ensemble
Brazil
ÁGUA-DF
Tropical plant growth & SWAT
Modification plant growth module
• Heat unit cycle triggered by
• moisture in upper two soil layers
Model calibration & uncertainty
• Parameter uncertainty
• Output uncertainty
• Ensemble combination
Plausibility of simulations
• Temporal LAI (MODIS)
Scenario simulations / impact analyses using SWAT
Conservation Practices / BMPs
• Terraces
• Barraginhas (sediment basins)
• Multi-diverse crop rotation
Urbanization
Climate
• Urban Structure Types
• GCM / RCM
Impact on water and sediment yield?
17