livro verde do etanol

LIVRO VERDE DO ETANOL
Bio based Chemicals in Brazil
Market achievements and opportunities
Brazilian Development Bank – BNDES
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Agenda
LIVRO VERDE DO ETANOL
1. BNDES introduction
2. Recent Programs in Brazil and its results
3. New Finds: Brazilian Chemical Industry Diversification Study
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BNDES HighlightsLIVRO
VERDE DO ETANOL
 Founded on June 20th, 1952.
 100% state-owned company under private law.
 Key instrument for implementation of Federal Government’s
industrial and infrastructure policies.
 Main provider of long-term financing in Brazil.
 Emphasis on financing investment projects.
 Support to micro, small and medium-sized companies.
 Support to Export and Internationalization of Brazilian companies.
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BNDES Time Line LIVRO
50’s
60’s
VERDE DO ETANOL
70’s
80’s
90’s
00’s
Today
Infrastructure
Heavy Industry – Consumer Goods
Technological Development
Imports
Substitution
Energy
Agribusiness
Exports
Privatization Program
Urban and Social Development
Social Inclusion
Innovation
Sustainability
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Small Business
BNDES Scope of Action
LIVRO
VERDE DO ETANOL
Investment Financing
Innovation
Infrastructure
Aquisition of Capital
goods for Small and
Medium Companies
Aquisition of Machinery and
Equipment
Exports
Capital Markets 5
BNDES vs. Multilateral
Banks
LIVRO
US$ million
Total Assets
Shareholders´ Equity
Net Income
Loan Disbursements
Capitalization (%)
ROA (%)
ROE (%)
VERDE DO ETANOL
BNDES
IADB
World Bank China DB
31/12/2012 30/06/2012 30/06/2012 31/12/2011
350.128
25.529
4.004
78.712
7.3
18.8
1.3
95.522
20.194
189
2.046
21.1
0.2
0.9
338.178
36.685
783
19.777
10.8
0.3
2.1
993.217
70.739
7.244
N/D
7.1
0.9
11.5
IADB = Inter-American Development Bank
World Bank
China DB = China Development Bank
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BNDES’ priority: Innovation Policy and instruments to support all
companies
LIVRO VERDE DO ETANOL
BNDES INNOVATION Credit Line
FIXED / VARIABLE
INCOME
PROSOFT, PROFARMA, PROTVD, PAISS, PRO-Aeronautical,
PRO-Engineering, BNDES O&G, INOVA Programs
SECTORIAL Programs
BNDES Card
PRODUCTS for
SMEs
BNDES AUTOMATIC
Closed and Open Mutual Funds
EQUITY
Direct Participation (stake in the company)
Criatec Program (Seed Money)
NON-REIMBURSABLE
INVESTMENT
FUNTEC
Technological Fund
Projects, including Research,
development and innovation in areas of
national interest
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Agenda
LIVRO VERDE DO ETANOL
1. BNDES introduction
2. Recent Programs in Brazil and its results
3. New Finds: Brazilian Chemical Industry Diversification Study
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Well established sugarcane
industryVERDE
LIVRO
Brazil has more than 400 sugarcane
mills that can crush around 700 million
tons per year. Besides that, due to the
lack of financial/technological assets,
the majority still processing only the
sugarcane juice…
DO ETANOL
… which represents a great
opportunity for those who are able to
develop/adapt new technologies to be
integrated to these plants, generating
synergies and cost reductions for both
1st and 2nd gen ethanol process.
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Land availabilityLIVRO VERDE DO ETANOL
By improving the low yield of cattle
production it will be possible to free large
amount of land for other purposes.
Brazilian federal agricultural zoning
considered up to 64 Mha able to produce
sugarcane w/o irrigation.
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Lowest carbon footprint
LIVRO VERDE DO ETANOL
Energy efficiency - BOE output/ BOE input
Corn USA average
2.3
Sugarcane biomass can provide all primary
energy required in its own industrial
process and also generate a surplus that
can be added to the power grid.
Sugar cane Braziltop
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Sugar cane Brazilaverage
Sugar cane Brazilbottom
Source: USDA apud Villela Filho (2011)
9.3
6.7
BOE = barrel of oil equivlent
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Public Policies andLIVRO
the technology
run
VERDE
DO ETANOL
EUA:
- Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) – EUA
- Programa de grants do Departamento de Energia (DOE)
Europa:
- European Commission Inniciatives (EU ETS, NER300,
etc.)
Brasil:
- PAISS
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PAISS - Results
LIVRO VERDE DO ETANOL
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Commercial Projects – Industrial Biotech
LIVRO VERDE DO ETANOL
BNDES Financing for Investment: > US$ 500 M (2011-2014)
• Braskem - Green PE 200 kt - 2011 - Triunfo/RS
US$240M BNDES financing for pilot and commercial scale
• Amyris - Farnesene - 2013 - São Paulo
US$ 35M BNDES financing for demo and commercial scale
• Solazyme - Specialty oils - 2014 - São Paulo
US$107M BNDES financing for commercial scale
• GranBio - Cellulosic ethanol - 2014 - Alagoas
US$130M BNDES equity and financing
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Project Perspectives
LIVRO VERDE DO ETANOL
BNDES Financing Forecast: > US$ 1 bi (2015-2017)
Announced projects:
• Solvay-Rhodia / Granbio - butanol
BNDES financing and grant (Funtec) for research
• DSM – Succinic acid from sugar cane - Grant (Funtec) from BNDES
• Elekeiroz / Coskata – butanol
• PHB – Demo plant
BNDES financing for demo plant
• Biobased chemicals research pipeline
Braskem/Solvay-Rodhia/DSM/Elekeiroz/Oxiteno/CTC – CTBE/Embrapa
BNDES and Finep financing and grants for research
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Agenda
LIVRO VERDE DO ETANOL
1. BNDES introduction
2. Recent Programs in Brazil and its results
3. New Finds: Brazilian Chemical Industry Diversification Study
public reports at...
www.bndes.gov.br
google: “BNDES Química Diversificação”
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Brazilian Chemical LIVRO
Industry - 2013
VERDE DO ETANOL
Trade balance - Chemicals
Imports
Exports
US$ billions FOB
Source: MDIC/Secex
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Study – main objectives
LIVRO VERDE DO ETANOL
Atract investments
Diversify the industry
Reduce trade balance’s shortage
Design industrial policies that promote investments
Post-study : execution focus
Authors:
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The study is at its final
stage
LIVRO
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
VERDE DO ETANOL
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Mapping and
S Seminars
Initial
Segmentation Prioritization
of segments
S1
1st July 13
June
July
Aug
Sept
SP Specialists Panel
S2
9th Sept 13
Characterization of selected segments
Final
Prioritiz
ation of
Opportu
nities
Economics detailing
Business models drawing
S3
Report 3
Mapping and best practices
for development policies
Report 4
Drawing of development
policies
Report 5
Report 6
Prioritization and
validation
SP
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S4
16th
Report 7
Sept
(Final)
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64 segments and a business
perspective
LIVRO
VERDE DO ETANOL
Chain
Organics
Inorganics
Acrylic Metacrylic Fatty
Butadiene, Cellulose
Inorganic
acid and acid and acids and Aromatics isoprene
and
acids
deivati
deriv.
and deriv. deriv.
deriv.
Alumi
num
deriv.
Boron
deriv.
Chlorine
and
Alkalis
Cobalt
deriv.
Phospho
rus and
deriv.
Waxes
and
paraffins
Iodine
and
deriv.
Radio
active
mat.
Niobium
deriv.
Nickel
deriv.
Titanium
dioxide and
deriv.
Lubricants
Copoly
mers
Cumene
and
deriv.
Methane
deriv.
Tar
deriv.
Ethylene
oxide and
deriv..
Elasto
mers
Propene
deriv.
Ethylene Industrial
deriv.
gases
Vinyl
deriv.
Silicon
deriv.
Rare earth
Sulfphates
deriv.
Elemental
carbon
deriv.
Uranium
Market
Fine chemicals intermediaries
Aramids
Polymers intermediaries
Industrial intermediaries
Special Polymers
Catalysts and additives
Carbon
fibers
Polibutilene
terephthalate
Special
High tenacity Polyether polyols
polyamides polyester and polyurethane
Dyes, pigments and
coatings
Syntetic
dyes
Printing
inks
Coating
Polycarbonates
Polycetals
Food additives
Construction
chemicals
Leather
chemicals
Mining
chemicals
Politetrametileno
éter glicol
Resinas
epóxidas
O&G
Chemicals
Polymers
additives
Catalysts
Flavor and
fragrances
Soaps, cleaning and
Glues and
Pesticides
cosmetics
sealants
Glues,
Cleaning
adhesives
Cosmetics Pesticides
and
products
sealants
Note: Pharmaceuticals, fertilizers and commodity plastics resines (HDPE, PP, PVC and PET are out of the scope of the study.
Photo
graphics
Photo
graphics
Other
Explo- Refrigera
Reagents
sives
nts
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Market and production factors
guided the selectionLIVRO
of segmentsVERDE
to deep dive DO ETANOL
CRITERIA
INDICATORS
• Imports +Exports (US$)
- Average 08-12
• Production (US$)
Quantitative
Demand Conditions
• Size
- Average 07-11
• Growth
• CAGR imports + exports (%)
• Value-added
• Unit Price (US$/kg)
• Aliceweb
• Associations
• PIA
• Aliceweb
-Average 08-12
Qualitative
• Trends
Factors of Production
SOURCE
• Trends in Demand
• Raw Materials
• Degree, current and future, of availability and cost
competitiveness of raw materials
• Technology
• Degree of technological dominion and the potential
to develop or purchase it
Labor
Legal
Environ.
Infrastructure
Capital
• Availability of qualified labor
• Global Insight
• Macro tendencies
• Consortium
• Validation from the
school of chemistry
• Quality of available infrastructure
• Regulatory restrictions
• Necessity for investment
A multi-criteria analysis tool was used to ensure the robustness of the results
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19 segments were considered highly attractive and were studied in more detail
LIVRO VERDE DO ETANOL
Market BR
( US$B,
2012)
Brazilian
Share
(%)
Global growth
(12-07)
Brazilian
Growth
(12-07)
Imports
(US$ M)
Exports
(US$ M)
Unit Price
(US$ /kg)
+ Cosmetics
41.8
9.7%
4.1%
12.4%
830
580
5.4
Defensives
9.7
20.5%
7.6%
16.1%
5,400
500
11.3
Animal feeding additives1
1.10
10.0%
3.7%
10.1%
458
310
2.5
Butadiene, Isoprene
1.95
5.7%
1.1%
3.2%
860
740
2.5
Flavors and fragrances
1.20
5.1%
3.3%
6.5%
295
317
5.2
Oilfield chemicals
0.71
3.6%
11.2%
24.6%
85
9
1.7
Surfactants
1.54
5.7%
3.0%
6.9%
315
185
3.0
Aromatics2
2.52
1.6%
3.8%
5.2%
1,154
0
1.2
Polyurethanes
1.50
3.5%
1.6%
5.8%
944
83
2.7
Cellulose derived products
0.33
1.3%
6.3%
1.1%
190
37
3.5
Lubricants
4.5
3.5%
1.0%
2.6%
1,127
209
2.4
Food additives*
0.65
3.0%
3.8%
4.1%
367
625
2.8
Oleo chemicals
0.66
2.8%
8.1%
23.2%
230
179
1.7
Carbon Fiber
0.10
9.4%
7.9%
107.4%
97
0
24.4
Mining chemicals
0.19
4.1%
2.3%
7.6%
93
8
2.2
Leather chemicals
0.38
8.1%
2.8%
3.7%
111
83
1.7
Silicon Derived Products
0.42
3.0%
3.7%
5.2%
190
536
2.5
Construction chemicals
0.17
1.7%
3.7%
5.0%
30
4
Polyamides
1.28
1.7%
1.9%
-5.2%
509
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Competitiveness
Segment
-
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1.1
3.4
Main opportunities: relevant and growing local markets
or local feedstock availability
LIVRO VERDE DO ETANOL
DEMAND DRIVER
FEEDSTOCKS
Currently feedstock availability
CHEMICALS
FROM PULP
Strong local market
CROP
PROTECTION
FOOD ADDITIVES
FLAVORS AND
FRAGRANCES
.
Potentially feedstock availability
COSMETICS
PETROCHEMICALS
OLEOCHEMICALS
CADEIAS A
JUSANTE
OIL PRODUCTION
CHEMICALS
Feedstocks available/ emerging
technology
RENEWABLE
CHEMICALS
CADEIAS A
JUSANTE
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Sugarcane and maize represent ~60% of 1st generation carbohydrate feedstocks; Brazil owns ~ 30%
of this total
LIVRO VERDE DO ETANOL
CARB. - 1ST GEN.
* Other includes barley (133MT), sweet potatoes (105MT), sorghum (58MT) and yam (57MT)
Source: FAOStat (2014) for 2011/2012 season
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In addition to being the most available culture, sugarcane is one of the most competitive feedstocks
LIVRO VERDE DO ETANOL
CARB. - 1ST GEN.
Note: The fermentable weight corresponds to carbohydrates that are consumed in the fermentation
Source: Nexant (2013), Next Generaton Biofeedstocks: Resources IS Renawables ; Südzucker (2014); Bayer. Landesanstalt Für Landwirtschaft (2014)
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Brazil is responsible for ~40% of the global production of sugarcane residues
LIVRO VERDE DO ETANOL
AGROIND. RESIDUE
Source: FAO (2014), harvest 2011/2012; Nexant (2013), Next Generaton Biofeedstocks: Resources IS Renawables ; Bain / Gas Energy Analysis.
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Sugarcane residues are the most competitive of all the agroindustrial residues
LIVRO VERDE DO ETANOL
SUGARCANE WASTE FEATURES ONE OF THE
LOWEST PRODUCTION COSTS...
... AND THE LOWEST COST WHEN
THE CONTENT OF FERMENTABLES IS
CONSIDERED
* Cost of bagasse considered as opportunity cost of input, which can be sold for the generation of electric energy
Note: The percentages of hemicellulose and cellulose of each residue were considered in the calculation of the cost per fermentable tone
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Source: Nexant (2013), Next Generaton Biofeedstocks: Resources IS Renawables; Kim & Day (2011); Franco, H. C. J. et. All (2013); North Central Sun Grant Center & South
Dakota State University (2013); Iqbal ET al. (2013); Bain/Gas Energy Analysis
Biofuels industry will allow evolution of the 2G sugar experience curve
LIVRO VERDE DO ETANOL
Retrofit of
existing plant
can reduce
Capex
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Note: Use of ethanol by Braskem estimated by considering a stoichiometric yield of 54% for the installed capacity of 200 Ktpy
Source: CONAB (2013); Braskem (2013); PECEGE/ESALQ (2012 e 2014); CTBE (2013); CTC (2013); Novacana (2014); expert interviews; Bain/Gas Energy analysis
2nd biggest concentration of production capacity of chemicals from biomass is found
in Brazil
LIVRO VERDE DO ETANOL
*Includes projects with undefined location or with location in countries as Italy, India, Canada and others.
Note: the data presented on the graph is related to projects that were publicly announced for renewable chemical classes 1 and 2, i.e. the alternative route based on
biomass is emerging or in the beginning of business stage.
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Source: Nexant (2012), Bio-based Chemicals: Going Commercial; Green Chemicals Blog (2012-2014); Biofuels digest (2012-2014); websites of different companies
(renewable and conventional chemicals); interviews with experts.
Investments are shifting from biofuels to biochemicals
LIVRO VERDE DO ETANOL
In Brazil: information asymmetry and shyness of the local
agents (VC and biotech companies)
Source: Cleantech Group
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LIVRO VERDE DO ETANOL
Thank you!
[email protected]
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