FinTech und Venture Capital

Transcrição

What the FinTech?! #2
FinTech & Venture Capital
Startplatz Köln
8. Oktober 2015
What is FinTech?
Jeder hat so seine eigene Definition
Big Data, CloudComputing,
Smartphones,
Laptops, etc.
FinTech
Unternehmen
ECommerce
Crowdlending
MobilePayment
Business
Intelligence
FinTech
Übernahme von
Marktanteile der
Banken
Banken
 FinTech: Moderne Technologie zur Bereitstellung finanzieller Dienstleistungen durch

Unternehmen, die (ursprünglich) aus dem Nichtbankenbereich stammen
Überwindung der Markteintrittshürde (Banklizenz) durch alternative Methoden
2
What is FinTech?
3
German Universe/Global Universe
German FinTech Startup Universe
Global FinTech Universe
n=332
n=1.232
Lending
Alt. Finance
Investment
Payment Solutions
16%
Insurance
Payment P2P
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
4%
3%
3%
3%
37%
Restau/Till
Bitcoin/Crypto
Other
ERP
Online-Ident
6%
8%
11%
Finance Aggregation
Payments
3%2%
3%3%
4%
4%
4%
20%
Personal Finance
Equity Financing
5%
Retail Investment
20%
6%
Small Business Tools
7%
9%
10%
Banking Infrastructure
Spenden
API/Infrastructure
Institutional Investment
Real Estate
Source: paymentandbanking.com, crowdfunding.de, Maik Klotz, Signed.VC, Barkow Consulting
Source: Venture Scanner, Barkow Consulting
 >300 FinTech-Unternehmen in Deutschland
 >1.200 FinTech-Unternehmen global erscheint sehr konservativ
3
What is Venture Capital?
4
Erhebliche Differenzen in den Statistiken für Deutschland
VC-Investitionen in Deutschland
Dt. VC-Lücke > €27Mrd.
Deutsche Venture Capital-Investitionen in €Mrd. p.a.
Dt. VC-Investitionslücke im Vgl. zu USA in €Mrd. p.a.
Min
Max
7,1
Ø
2,3
Ʃ 27,2
1,5
4,3
2,8
0,6
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: BVK, Dow Jones VentureSource, EVCA, EY, Majunke Consulting, Pitchbook, Barkow
Consulting
2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Sou4ce: BVK, CB Insights, destatis, Dow Jones VentureSource, EVCA, EY, NVCA/PwC
MoneyTree, Pitchbook, United Nations National Accounts Main Aggregates Database, US
Census, Barkow Consulting
 Dt. VC-Investitionen 2014: Je nach Quelle zwischen EUR0,6Mrd. und EUR2,3Mrd.
4
5
FinTech Venture Capital
Deutschland: Pick a Number
FinTech Venture Capital in Germany 2014
FinTech Venture Capital Investitionen in €Mio. p.a.
643
331
308
175
82
CB Insights
Techfluence
Dow Jones Venture
Source
PitchBook
Ø
Source: CB insights, Dow Jones VentureCource, Techfluence, Pitchbook, Barkow Consulting
 Auch im FinTech-Segment dramatische Unterschiede in den Zahlen
=> Geringe Markttransparenz
5
6
Europa & Global
FinTech Venture Capital in Europe
FinTech Venture Capital Global
FinTech Venture Capital Investitionen in €Mrd. p.a.
FinTech Venture Capital Investitionen in US $ Mrd. p.a.
12,21
1,68
0,74
0,64
4,00
0,20
0,05
0,06
2010
2011
0,64
2012
2013
2014
H12015
Source: Pitchbook, Barkow Consulting
2012
2013
2014
Source: EY/CB Insights, Barkow Consulting
 Explosion von FinTech VC seit 2012
 Wachstumstrend in 2015 (noch) intakt
6
7
Deutschland: Unsere Money Map Zahlen
FinTech Venture Capital in Germany
All FinTech Investments in 2015
FinTech Venture Capital Investments in US$m
FinTech Investments in US$m
VC
Debt
M&A
294
294
161
803
39
2012
56
2013
Source: Barkow Consulting ‚FinTech Money Map‘
453
2014
2015YTD
 FinTech VC auch in Deutschland mit starkem Anstieg
 In 2015 bislang EUR1,5Mrd. Investiert …
 … dominiert von M&A und Fremdkapital
7
8
Moore‘s Law & die 2. Hälfte des Schachbretts
The Second Half of the Chessboard
Market Share in %, CAGR 100%
Growth Co
Perception Hurdle
4 years
51%
2%
t0
t1
t2
t3
t4
t5
t6
t7
t8
t9
t10
t11
Source: destatis, Dowjones Venture Source, United Nations National Accounts Main Aggregates Database, University of
Camebridge/EY, US Census, Barkow Consulting
 Der Grund für den FinTech VC Boom: Technologischer Wandel beschleunigt sich;
Banken beschleunigen ihren eigenen Wandel nicht entsprechend
8
9
Barkow Consulting FinTech Money Map
Introducing our 5-Star-Database
ca. 200
FinTech Cos
> 350
Investoren
> 600
Investments
> 3 Mrd.
Investments
> 250
Finanzierungs
-runden
 Unsere Money Map als ein Schritt zur Erhöhung der Markttransparenz
 Die wohl umfangreichste FinTech VC-Datenbank in Deutschland
 Vielleicht eine der grössten VC-Datenbanken in Deutschland generell
9
10
Wer investiert?
FinTech VC: Most Active Investors in Germany (in # of portfolio companies)
Investors by number of FinTech investments
12
11
10
No 22
No 22
No 22
No 22
No 19
No 19
No 19
No 17
No 17
No 15
No 15
No 13
No 13
No 12
No 10
No 10
SAP
Rocket
Point Nine
b-to-v
DvH V.
G Startups
YouisNow
HTGF
Holtzb V
9
 Die üblichen Verdächtigen?!
10
11
Regionaler Split
Investors in German FinTech (# of Investors by Country of Origin)
Number of Investors by Country of Investor Origin
13
12
8
5
4
5
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
UK
Russia
France
Sweden
Netherlands
Italy
Hong Kong
Singapore
Ukraine
Spain
Australia
Denmark
Poland
Japan
Ukraine
Brasil
EU
USA
Germany
25
Switzerland
274
 Deutschland dominiert
 USA auf Position Nr. 2
 Und Russland auf Nr. 5
11
12
Sektoraler Split
Investors in German FinTech
Number of Investors by Investor Background
Number of Investors by Type of Investor
Investor
VC
FinTech
5%
IT
Strategic Investor
2%2%
2%
3%
Banks
4%
Corporate VC
5%
32%
Retail
5%
Insurance
76%
Incubator
Company Builder
Accelerator
15%
Telco
Public VC
Stock Exchange
Family Office
Internet
Luxury Goods
Angel
Media
3%1%
Hedge Fund
34%
Crowd
Payments
Capital Markets
Consulting
Private Equity
 Finanzinvestoren dominieren (insbesondere Business Angels)
 Medien investieren mehr als Banken
 Versicherungen (fast) NO SHOW
12
13
Deutschland hat noch FinTech-Potential
Barkow Consulting FinTech Country Rating
FinTech Country Rating (Ø of Alternative Finance/GDP & of FinTech VC/GDP)
Belgium
Denmark
Spain
Greece*
Lux.*
Germany
Czech Rep.
France
Finland
Ireland*
Netherl.
Sweden
USA
UK
Israel
In % of GDP
Source: destatis, Dowjones Venture Source, United Nations National Accounts Main Aggregates Database, University of
Camebridge/EY, US Census, Barkow Consulting
 Verpasst Deutschland (mal wieder) den Anschluss?
13
14
Die dt. VC-Lücke, wie groß war die noch?
Dt. VC-Lücke > €27Mrd.
Deutsche Venture Capital-Investitionen in €Mrd. p.a.
Dt. VC-Investitionslücke im Vgl. zu USA in €Mrd. p.a.
Min
Max
7,1
Ø
2,3
Ʃ 27,2
1,5
4,3
2,8
0,6
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: BVK, Dow Jones VentureSource, EVCA, EY, Majunke Consulting, Pitchbook, Barkow
Consulting
2014
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Sou4ce: BVK, CB Insights, destatis, Dow Jones VentureSource, EVCA, EY, NVCA/PwC
MoneyTree, Pitchbook, United Nations National Accounts Main Aggregates Database, US
 Dt. VC-Investitionen 2014 - Große Unterschiede in der Datenbasis
 Dt. VC-Lücke > €27Mrd. seit 2009
 Dt. VC Lücke auf Rekordniveau in 2014
14
15
US VC Investitionen 7,5x so hoch
VC-Investitionen in den USA
Venture Capital Investitionen in %0 des BIP
Venture Capital Investitionen in %
0
des BIP
3,39%0
Min
Max
Max
Min
Max
2,72%0
0,79%0
0,22%0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2009
Source: BVK, Dow Jones, VentureSource, EVCA, EY, Majunke Consulting, Pitchbook, destatis, Barkow
Consulting
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: CB Insights, Dow Jones VentureSource, NVCA/PwC MoneyTree, EY, Pitchbook, US
 US VC Investitionen sind 7,5x so hoch wie in Deutschland
15
16
FinTech VC: Deutschland vs London
FinTech VC in Deutschland und London
VC Investment Volumen in US$m
Germany
London
554
487
294
161
2014
2015 YTD
Source: Barkow Consulting ‚FinTech Money Map‘, CB Insights/London & partners
 London allein zieht mehr FinTech VC an als ganz Deutschland
 Aber: Lücke in 2015 scheint kleiner zu werden
16
Barkow Consulting Strategic Innovation Tree
Innovation Strategies
Reinvent
Yourself
Alone
Found Tech
Subsidiary
Alone
Cooperation
www.BarkowConsulting.com
JV / Cooperation
Investment
M&A
VC
Traditional
VC
Corporate
VC
Fund
Accelerator
Incubator
Company
Builder
Incumbents & Disruption
I
Ignorance
What are you
talking about?
Never heard
of it!
VIII
Investment
Hm, if we
can‘t beat
them, we
invest in
them!
II
Underestimation
This is just
a short term
fad!
IX
M&A
Wrong
investments,
let‘s buy the
winners instead
…
Source: Barkow Consulting
III
Denial
Come on, we
are much too
strong, they will
never succeed
X
Write Off
Once
successful,
now (with us)
they struggle
…
IV
V
Surprise
Frustration
Hm, they are
not going
away …
Oops , we are
really losing
market share!
XI
Buy Real
Survivors
Now let‘s
buy real
survivors!
XII
Buy Out
Hope
Waited too
long,
survivors too
expensive,
now hope
they buy us!
VI
Copy
Sh…, we have
to do that too!
XIII
No Interest
Tech Cos not
interested in
bricks &
mortars, legacy
systems etc. …
VII
Resignation
Sh…, we are
not getting it
done! Are we
too late?
XIV
Open end …
19
Deutschen Banken auch noch mit Potential
Dt. Banken investieren kaum
German Banks FinTech Investments
Number of Companies
Commerz
Sparkassen
3
2
2
1
main incubator
Commerz Ventures
DSGV
DSV Gruppe
Source: Barkow Consulting "FinTech Money Map"
 Commerzbank als absoluter Marktführer
 Aber auch die Sparkassen sind im Markt aktiv …
 … wenn auch mit anderem Investment-Ansatz
19
20
Banken & FinTech Investments: D vs USA
FinTech Investments: Germany vs US
Number of Companies
USA
27
Germany
24
24
20
16
14
8
Amex
Citi
GS
PayPal
JP Morgan
Visa
MS
5
3
Commerz Sparkassen
Source: Barkow Consulting "FinTech Money Map"
 Deutsche Banken als Nebenakteure (blau, rechts aussen!)
 US Banken & Kreditkartenunternehmen extrem aktiv
20
21
FinTech Unicorns vs German Banks
German Listed Banks vs. Global FinTech Unicorns
Valuation in US$ bn
49,0
45,1
Public
German
Bank
Private
16,5
Adyen
comdirect
Lakala*
Dataminr*
Biz2Credit
PBB
Affirm*
Prosper
One97
CommonBond
Aareal
Xero
Klarna
Powa
CreditKarma
Zenefits
Zillow
Stripe
Wirecard
LendingClub
6,0 5,6 5,1 5,0 4,8 4,5
3,5 2,7 2,5 2,4 2,3 2,0 2,0 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,7 1,6 1,6
1,5 1,5
Square
Zhong An
Lufax
CBK
DB
PayPal
9,6 8,0
Source: Finovate, Bloomberg, Pitchbook, Barkow Consulting
 PayPal > Deutsche Bank
21
22
Top 5 vs Top 5
Top5: FinTech vs listed German Banks
In US$ bn
78
67
Fintech 5
German Banks
Source: Finovate, Bloomberg, Barkow Consulting
 FinTech Top 5 schlägt deutsche Banken Top 5 …
 … zumindest aktuell
22
23
Auch FinTechs noch mit Potential?
PayPal vs Next 8
PayPal vs Next 8 FinTech Unicorns
In US$ bn
49
49
PayPal
Next 8
Source: Finovate, Bloomberg, Barkow Consulting
 PayPal ist soviel Wert wie die nächstfolgenden 8 FinTech-Unternehmen zusammen
23
24
Deutschland noch mit VC-Potential
Es gibt keine großen VC-Runden in Deutschland?
German Mega Rounds by Size
Venture Capital Funding Rounds > US$ 50 m
568
445
350
75
60
50
50
50
Sound Clould
Sound Clould
Delivery Hero
Windeln.de
85
Delivery Hero
85
Hello Fresh
86
WestWing
88
Delivery Hero
92
Kreditech
Delivery Hero
Auto1
Home24
Hello Fresh
Zalando
Delivery Hero
Rocket Internet
Delivery Hero*
126 120 118
110
Blue Yonder
191
Source: Crunchbase, Gründerszene, deutsche startups, div., Barkow Consulting
 Doch es gibt sie!
24
25
Megarunden auch in Deutschland mit steigender Tendenz
German Mega Rounds Rising
Rocket Internet Involved in Most Mega Rounds
Number of Venture Capital Funding Rounds > US$ 50 m
Number of Venture Capital Funding Rounds > US$ 50 m
9
Rocket
Others
6
5; 28%
2
1
2012
2013
13; 72%
2014
2015 YTD
 Anzahl der Megarunden steigt an
 Aber: Megarunden sind ‘Rockets Reich’
 US VCs die mit Abstand häufigsten Lead-Investoren
25
26
FinTech: Largest VC-Investments Germany/Global
Die größten Fundingrunden in Deutschland
Biggest Global FinTech VC Fundraisers
Fundingrunden in US$ m
Kulumiertes Fundinvolumen in US$ m
1.766
92
≠
90
SoFi
Square
One97
Zenefits
Lufax
Cr. Karma
Prosper
Mozido
Oscar
Klarna
Adyen
ComBond
Zuora
Qufenqi
Stripe
Fin. Force
Powa
Fund.Circle
Housing.com
Jimubox
iZettle
TransferWise
SumUP
Paymill
Traxpay
smawa
auxmoney
SumUP
Saving
Global
Lendico
Kreditech
Kreditech
13
Source: Finovate, Bloomberg, Business Insider, CB Insights, Pitchbook, Barkow Consulting
 Deutsche FinTech-Fundingrunden sind im internationalen Vergleich noch klein
26
27
Barkow Consulting FinTech Club of 20
Another 5-Star-Database
Only one Non
US-Investor
29 Investors
Countless
Unicorns
>750
Investments
Several US$
billions
invested
 Barkow Consulting FinTech Club of 20 …
 … die 29 wichtigsten FinTech Investoren weltweit
27
28
An Exclusive Members List
Global FinTech VC: Big Spenders
In Number of FinTech Investments/portfolio companies
VC
Bank
Payments
IDG
Redpoint
Union Sq
Intel
PayPal
Battery
Bessemer
Index
QED
KPCB
NEA
Khosla
Accel
Mastercard
Lightspeed
Ribbit
Goldman
Citi
Route 66
SV Angel
Y Comb*
Summit
Spark
Greylock
Amex
a16z
28 28 27 27 28 26
25 24 24 24 24 23 23
22 22 22 22 22 22 21 21 21 21 20 20 20 20
First Round
33
RRE
Google V
38
Tech
Source: Company data, AngelList, CB Insights, Crunchbase, PYMNTS.com, Barkow Consulting 'FinTech Money Map'
 Google ist der Über-FinTech VC Investor
28
29
The Club of 20 by Sector
Investors in Global FinTech
Investors in Global FinTech
Number of FinTech Portfolio Companies in %
Number of FinTech Portfolio Companies by Country of Investor
4%
10%
7%
US
VC
9%
UK
Tech
Russia
Bank
Spain
Payments
Germany
74%
96%
Source: Company data, AngelList, CB Insights, Crunchbase, PYMNTS.com, Barkow Consulting 'FinTech Money Map'
Source: Company data, AngelList, CB Insights, Crunchbase, PYMNTS.com, Barkow Consulting 'FinTech Money Map''
 Traditionelle VCs dominieren
 A US Members Only Club (Almost)
29
30
The Club of 20 in Germany
Share of German investments
Number of Investors by Type of Investor
Number of Investments
2%
Active
Not Active
Germany
Others
8
21
98%
Source: Company data, AngelList, CB Insights, Crunchbase, PYMNTS.com,
Barkow Consulting 'FinTech Money Map'
Source: Company data, AngelList, CB Insights, Crunchbase, PYMNTS.com,
Barkow Consulting 'FinTech Money Map'
 8 Co20 Investoren mit deutschen Investments
 Dt. Investments aber <2% Anteil an Co20 FinTech Investments
30
31
The Club of 20 in Germany
Leading FinTech VCs With German Investments
German FinTech Cos With Leading FinTech VCs
Number of German Investments
Number of Leadings VCs
Source: Barkow Consulting 'FinTech Money Map'
Union Sq
PayPal
1
1
1
1
Billsafe
Summit
1
Smple
Surance
Ribbit
1
Vaamo
NEA
1
Payleven
1
Catawiki
1
Check24
1
360T
1
2
auxmoney
1
Saving
Global
2
2
Route 66
2
Index
Accel
2
 Drei Co20 Investoren sogar mit zwei deutschen Investments
 Zwei deutsche FinTechs sogar mit zwei Co20 Investoren
31
32
Who Attracts Smart Money VCs?
Companies Attracting Most Co20 Investors
7
6
5
4
Stripe
FundersClub
iZettle
robinhood
Upstart
coinbase
No 7
No 7
No 7
No 7
No 7
No 7
No 7
No 14
No 14
No 14
No 14
No 14
No 14
No 14
No 14
No 14
No 14
No 14
No 14
No 14
No 14
No 14
No 14
No 14
3
 Stripe & FundersClub mit den meisten Co20 Investoren
32
33 Boom & Bust
Gartner Hype Cycle
Saturation
Peak
Sustainable
Growth
Trough
Start
 Gartner Hype-Zyklus beschreibt den typischen Verlauf der Erwartungen an technologische
Innovationen
33
34
Boom & Bust
Gartner Hype Cycle & Google Trends
FinTech auf Google Trends
Anzahl Suchanfragen relativ zu Gesamtsuchanfragen
Source: Google Trends
 Looks like the beginning of a Hype Cycle
34
35
Boom & Bust
Gartner Hype Cycle - Dt. Sonderweg für Finanzinnovationen
Peak
Deutscher
Sonderweg
R.I.P.
Aktienkultur
Neuer Markt
Mezzanine Fonds
Mittelstandsanleihen
To be Continued …
Start
 Die deutsche Finanzindustrie hat allerdings ihren eigenen Hype-Zyklus
35
36
Fragen
Antworten
?
36
Kontakt:
Peter Barkow
Barkow Consulting GmbH
Rethelstr. 38
D-40237 Düsseldorf
PH: +49 (0) 211 17 17 256
[email protected]
www.BarkowConsulting.com
@BarkowConsult
Peter Barkow
Peter Barkow
Peter Barkow
DISCLAIMER
This presentation was prepared by Barkow Consulting GmbH (“The Author”) as a basis for discussion of certain financial issues
described herein. This presentation may not be reproduced, summarized or disclosed, in whole or in part, without the prior
written authorization of The Author, and by accepting this presentation, you hereby agree to be bound by the restrictions
contained herein.
This presentation is based on publicly available data which has not been independently verified by The Author. Any estimates
and projections contained herein involve significant elements of subjective judgment and analysis, which may or may not be
correct. None of The Author, any of its affiliates, or any of its direct or indirect shareholders, or any of its or their respective
members, consultants, employees or agents provides any guarantee or warranty (express or implied) or assumes any
responsibility with respect to the authenticity, origin, validity, accuracy or completeness of the information and data contained
herein or assumes any obligation for damages, losses or costs (including, without limitation, any direct or consequential losses)
resulting from any errors or omissions in this presentation.
The economic valuations contained in this presentation are necessarily based on current market conditions, which may change
significantly over a short period of time. Changes and events occurring after the date hereof may, therefore, affect the validity of
the conclusions contained in this presentation and The Author assume no obligation to update and /or revise this presentation
or the information and data upon which it was based.

FinTech und Venture Capital

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