enovos trendwatch

Transcrição

enovos trendwatch

enovos trendwatch
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table of contents
Introduction by Etienne Schneider
4
Foreword by Romain Becker
6
Foreword by Jean Lucius
8
Management Summary by Dr. Sabine Graumann
10
Chapter A
Smart Energy
The Energy Transition
1. A new energy supply system is needed – but where to find one? 20
2.The energy mix of the future – the project of the century
24
3.Can energy producers and grid operators cope
with these challenges?
4.Energy suppliers’ new business models
29
36
5.Will private consumers be prepared to pay
for the energy transition?
41
6.How efficient are the measures introduced by politicians?
46
Chapter B
Smart Grid – Smart Meter
Intelligent Grids and Meters
1. Intelligent grids and meters as the backbone
of the energy transition
52
2.Renewable energies: From Cinderella to Centre Stage
58
3.Upgrading the electricity grids to smart and super grids
64
4.How quickly will smart meters catch on in private households?
72
5.How smart are smart meters?
84
6.The dilemma of smart meter expansion
86
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Chapter C
Smart Home – Smart Building
Energy Efficiency in Buildings
1. End of the energy guzzlers in sight?
2.The buildings of the future will be self-supplying
88
102
3.Functional buildings will become smart buildings and will
be able to do more than increase energy efficiency
107
4.The private house, the smart home of the future –
lower energy consumption, greater convenience
111
5. New ways of living and dwelling will also
become accepted in the private home
120
6.Economic opportunities from new business areas
127
7.Drivers for smart home and smart building solutions
132
8.Barriers to smart home and smart building solutions
134
Chapter D
Smart Mobility
Electric Vehicles and Modern Mobility Concepts
1. The market for electric vehicles
136
2.The key to success: Advances in technology and
in the infrastructure 152
3.The change in private transport:
Future mobility and transport concepts 161
4.Electromobility 2020
168
5.Drivers for electric vehicles and modern mobility concepts
174
6.Barriers for electric vehicles and modern mobility concepts
176
Appendix
178
Survey fact file| Authors
180
Project team
181
Partners
182
Bibliography
186
Legal notice
191
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introduction | etienne schneider
INTRODUCTION
Against the backdrop of rising energy prices,
climate change and the increasing scarcity of
fossil fuels, an intelligent energy supply system is essential to every business location.
This also applies to Luxembourg.
etienne schneider
minister for economic affairs
and foreign trade Luxembourg,
LUXEMBOURG
LUXEMBOURG’S HIGH DEPENDENCY ON ENERGY IMPORTS
That being said, only 30% of Luxembourg’s ex-
The ENOVOS TRENDWATCH 2020 shows
perts in this study believe that we will achieve
that dependency on energy imports in Lux-
the EU's targets for a supply based on renew-
embourg is the highest in a comparison of the
able energies. All the more reason then for us
four countries at 98%. The most significant
to keep the National Renewable Energy Action
imported energy sources are mineral oil prod-
Plan in mind and to adhere to the interim goals
ucts at above 60% and natural gas at above
specified in it.
24%. All petroleum products are imported in
their refined form primarily by road and rail as
OUR ROADMAP TO THE ENERGY TRANSI-
there are no refineries in the country. This is
TION IN LUXEMBOURG
aggravated by the fact that we have absolute-
The national strategy for renewable energies,
ly no gas storage capacities due to the lack of
or Luxembourg’s action plan, will expedite
geological possibilities.
three key approaches to establishing a sus-
For Luxembourg as a business location
tainable energy system.
in general and for the industrial enterprises
in particular, security of supply in the energy
1. Firstly, the use of national energy sources
sector is crucial. In this respect, it is vital for
based on decentralised, local solutions for
the power supply that Luxembourg has intact
production and energy utilisation with spe-
connections with foreign countries, such as
cific focus on wind and biomass. In future,
Germany, France or Belgium.
they will represent the two main sources of
power in the renewable energy sector and
TAPPING THE FULL POTENTIAL OF RENEW-
will also bring with them the development of
ABLE ENERGIES
a local grid-connected heat supply. Energy
On the other hand, we still have huge poten-
users will increasingly fall back on biomass,
tial when it comes to renewable energies. Lux-
solar thermal energy and heat pumps. In
embourg’s share of renewable energies in the
connection with this, Luxembourg will pur-
gross final consumption of energy was approx.
sue the promotion of renewable energies in
2.8% in 2010.
the electricity sector by means of feed-in
It is important to push ahead with the devel-
tariffs and will award investment grants for
opment of renewables with the aim of reduc-
technologies in the renewable heat sector.
ing dependency on energy imports in the long
2.Secondly, efforts will be made in the mo-
term and, bearing in mind the economic costs,
bility sector to achieve the prescribed 10%
of developing new sectors of the economy
goal for sustainable biofuels by means of a
which will also lead to the creation of new jobs.
mandatory blending quota. In the transport
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enovos trendwatch
sector, the development of electromobility
ing for decentralised renewable energies for
will also be important even if it only plays
which they will receive state aid. We are there-
a limited part in achieving the target in the
fore on the right track to a sustainable energy
renewable energies sector.
supply for Luxembourg.
3. Last but not least, Luxembourg, due to its
limited national potential, is reliant upon
A CONTINUOUS DIALOGUE IS ABSOLUTELY
cooperation mechanisms that function well,
ESSENTIAL
i.e. the transfer of energy from renewable
With the first ENOVOS FUTURE SUMMIT in
sources from other member states or third
November last year and publication of the
countries. It is impossible without recourse
ENOVOS TRENDWATCH 2020, the Enovos
to cooperation mechanisms to achieve Lux-
Group initiated the first international dialogue
embourg’s goal of 11% of the gross final
with energy suppliers, grid operators, user in-
consumption of energy by 2020.
dustries and politics regarding one of the most
important questions of the future. We need a
With regard to the energy efficiency and en-
common and sustainable energy policy in Eu-
ergy saving measures of the Second National
rope and an agreement between 27 member
Energy Efficiency Action Plan for Luxem-
states with 27 different action plans if we are
bourg, the energy saving goal is 9% by 2016.
to operate a joint European energy policy. I
It can be seen by the current value from 2010
am extremely pleased that a first dialogue ad-
that Luxembourg is well on track. At 7.6%, it
dressing this was started in Luxembourg.
has already significantly exceeded the aimed
for 3% target value of the interim goal. In all
likelihood, the 9% mark will also be exceeded
by approximately 5% in 2016.
It has become possible to increase energy
efficiency by combining a wide range of different measures at national level. The provisions
made in recent years include the introduction
and tightening of the energy efficiency directive which represents a milestone in energy
saving in residential and non-residential buildings. Alongside this, there has been a gradual
introduction of the energy pass for buildings to
increase transparency in the market by providing energy-relevant information. In addition, a
large number of incentives have been created
for the energy-related renovation of private
households, such as the recently increased
funding for the refurbishment of old buildings
and the construction of energy-efficient new
buildings. Trade, commerce, service providers
and industry can all increasingly exploit savings potential as well as claim further financ-
Etienne Schneider
6
foreword| romain becker
FOREWORD
“SMART” FUTURE FOR ENERGY GRID OPERATORS
Energy forms of the future, the development
of renewable energies, nationwide coverage
of the intelligent grids and electric vehicles,
advantages and benefits for the customer ...
Within the scope of the ENOVOS TRENDWATCH 2020, power distributor Creos has positioned itself as a forward-looking grid operator committed to sustainability when it comes
to designing the future energy landscape and
future objectives of the "smart" energy world.
The focus in this case is on the energy transition which will pose serious challenges for grid
operators in the future.
ROMAIN BECKER
CEO CREOS LUXEMBOURG S.A.,
LUXEMBOURG
The power generation industry is becom-
ing more and more important given that in
future the power grids will make a significant
contribution to the transition to renewable
energy sources. The production portfolio will
consist mainly of facilities for the production
of renewable energies. It is most likely that
there will then be a considerable increase in
fluctuations and decentralised feed-in points
although state-of-the-art, reliable and efficient grids will probably balance out these
fluctuations in production which arise in the
case of wind and solar power. Communications technology will assume a key role. In
future it will increase the intelligence of the
power grids.
Development is progressing rapidly, smart
grids and smart homes will become a reality
in the near future. A first step towards this
will be taken in Luxembourg from 2015 when
a new generation of meters, known as smart
meters, will be introduced. They will enable
bidirectional communication between grid
operators and consumers. In addition to this,
they should prompt customers to reduce their
electricity consumption and make it more en-
enovos trendwatch
vironmentally friendly. The aim is for the whole country to form a
single communication platform by 2020.
For environmental reasons, Creos is making huge efforts to lay
power cables underground. Nowadays, 94% of the low-voltage
electricity cables and 65% of the medium-voltage electricity cables already run underground. Compact, inconspicuous indoor installations will be used in future to integrate high-voltage facilities
into the environment.
Natural gas will also play an important part in the restructur-
ing of the power system. It will act as an alternative source when
the renewable energies are inadequate or as a storage solution for
excess renewable energy.
Creos is an important company economically. As a responsible
grid operator, the company safeguards the national power supply,
provides jobs and is a driving economic force in the Grand Duchy
of Luxembourg. The investments made by Creos stimulate the domestic economy and supply a whole series of local companies,
such as construction engineers and technicians, with contracts.
With a program of ambitious investments, Creos ensures an
extremely flexible and secure power supply while facing up to the
special challenges entailed in the massive development of renewable energies.
Romain Becker
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8
foreword | jean lucius
FOREWORD
Dear Readers,
The first ENOVOS FUTURE SUMMIT took place
in the “Tramsschapp” cultural centre in Luxembourg on 22 November 2012. The ENOVOS
TRENDWATCH 2020 you are just reading was
Jean Lucius
presented during this event.
ceo enovos Luxembourg s.a.,
LUXEMBOURG
Visions of the future have always inspired
not only futurologists and visionaries but have
also appealed to those of us who wish to take
a proactive role in shaping their future living
environment. Enovos, as one of the key eco-
• the idea of an intelligent house: how, for ex-
nomic and industrial players in the Greater Re-
ample, will we adjust to an ageing popula-
gion, has also asked itself the question about
tion both in Europe and the Greater Region.
our lives in five, ten or 20 years as well as the
In this respect, can a smart home become
trends which will have a significant effect on
part of the assistance infrastructure? When
the daily lives of private individuals, trade and
will this occur? In general terms, will it make
commerce, and society as a whole during this
the lives of its occupants easier?
period.
Our lives are all becoming increasingly
When analysing these topic areas, we realised
complex and this too is a trend which will prob-
very quickly that the correlation between eco-
ably continue uninterrupted for some time. It
logical, demographic, technological and social
is for this reason that, within the scope of our
aspects was extremely important and that it is
considerations and preparations for ENOVOS
therefore impossible to answer our questions
TRENDWATCH 2020, early on we set three
without considering it in great detail.
topic areas which we wished to pay special at-
tention to.
deemed it essential to conduct an expert sur-
They are as follows:
vey aimed not only at those experts who live in
Moreover, in a Europe without borders, we
the Greater Region itself but also at those who
• the possible future development of electro-
are based in Luxembourg, Germany, France
mobility, including the question of whether
and Belgium. We therefore approached the
electromobility will establish itself as the
well-known opinion poll institutes TNS Ilres
main means of transport in the future;
and TNS Infratest to conduct a comprehensive
• the energy mix of the future in 20 years’
time and the long-term consequences of
feeding renewable energies into an intelligent grid – the smart grid;
analysis. You have the results of that study in
front of you.
enovos trendwatch
Since we were able to draw on the specialised and highly competent assistance of the opinion poll institutes and experts for this
study, this free publication is our way of making a contribution
to the topic. It is aimed at specialists and decision-makers but
also more generally at interested parties in business, education
and politics and we hope that, thanks to it, the smart grid – smart
home – smart mobility trio will also be perceived as an important
area of local development.
As the study is intended to provide a stimulus for interaction
between the three topics, it is important to remember that we
consciously do not adopt only the view of the energy supplier as
we are convinced that only a holistic approach can do justice to
this group of topics.
In a world which is mainly troubled nowadays with the conse-
quences of the financial and debt crisis, it is all the more important
not to lose sight of the future because it is the only thing that has
new opportunities in store. In Luxembourg and the Greater Region
it is also becoming increasingly important to deal pro-actively with
creating a vision of the future that is worth living for everyone; a
vision of the future whose technological opportunities can be echoed in political concepts and can be reflected adequately in social
discussion so that we can address the challenges of our time.
As Enovos would like to facilitate this process, we hope to be
able to repeat the ENOVOS FUTURE SUMMIT – on interesting topics of the future – every two years. We also hope in this way to
create a platform within which both the country and the Greater
Region are inspired to conduct interesting discussions.
With this in mind, I hope you enjoy an interesting read.
Jean Lucius
9
management summary | dr. sabine graumann
10
MANAGEMENT SUMMARY
ENOVOS TRENDWATCH 2020
This ENOVOS TRENDWATCH 2020 report analyses four smart application areas of the energy industry. It is these above all that the
energy transition is supposed to promote. The key questions are
as follows:
“SMART ENERGY – THE ENERGY TRANSITION”: the market penetration of innovative options, services and business models on
the supplier’s side – the affordability of the new energy supply
system from the consumer’s point of view - the role of politics as
an enabler.
“SMART GRID – SMART METERS”: the achievement of the targets
set by the European Union – the penetration speed of smart grids
and smart meters – their future acceptance, drivers and barriers.
“SMART HOME – SMART BUILDING”: the conversion of private
houses and functional buildings towards greater energy efficiency
by 2020 - when will the successes of measures to increase energy
efficiency have fully offset the rising energy costs? What factors
have a promotional or obstructive impact? To what extent will new
ways of living and dwelling assert themselves? What new business
opportunities will emerge?
“SMART MOBILITY – ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND STATE-OF-THEART MOBILITY CONCEPTS”: the achievement of the targets set –
DR. SABINE GRAUMANN
SENIOR DIRECTOR
TNS BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE,
the penetration speed of electric vehicles by 2020 and beyond –
the future viability of the various drive technologies – the shaping
of future mobility concepts using electric vehicles.
MUNICH
GERMANY
TNS Business Intelligence, the specialist of the TNS Group for
global market analyses, together with TNS Ilres, Luxembourg’s
member of the TNS Group, has conducted 375 expert interviews
in Luxembourg, Germany, France and Belgium on the future of the
energy industry on behalf of the Enovos Group. The expert team
was asked at the same time to provide its estimations for various
scenarios up to 2030 and beyond.
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enovos trendwatch
1.
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THE ENERGY INDUS-
Smart Energy | The Energy Transition
TRY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR THE
RENEWABLE ENERGIES ARE BECOMING THE
ECONOMY AS A WHOLE.
CORNERSTONE OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY.
70% of the experts consider the energy in-
According to the experts, the energy supply
dustry in their countries to be an engine for
system of the future will change radically in
growth of the economy as a whole. 89% of the
the next 20 years. Greater use will be made of
experts are of the opinion that technical inno-
renewable energies. Two out of three experts
vations, particularly in the field of new storage
predict a reduction in the dependence on en-
technologies, are the determining variable for
ergy imports of up to 10% by 2020. 95% of the
the success of the energy transition.
experts argue in favour of developing wind
power. 81% advocate developing geothermal
NEW BUSINESS AREAS PROVIDE ECONOMIC
energy. 76% would like to see more use made
OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE ENERGY INDUS-
of photovoltaics in the next twenty years. Sur-
TRY AND NEW PLAYERS.
prisingly, considering the status of public dis-
The energy suppliers are planning to take over
cussion, geothermal energy was the source
the roles of “production manager”, “virtual
second most commonly advocated by the ex-
supplier” and “efficiency partner” and to offer
perts. According to Claude Turmes, Member of
their customers advisory services. A 10% share
the European Parliament and Vice-President
of turnover will be achieved from this in 2020.
of the green fraction in the European Parlia-
More than half the experts surveyed believe
ment, “Electricity from wind and sun will be
this. 48% think that the energy companies will
at the centre of Europe’s power distribution
not find any appropriate new business model
system.”
under the altered market conditions if the core
business is eroded in the areas of electricity
For 42% of all those surveyed, natural gas is
the only fossil energy source that will be devel-
production and gas extraction.
oped in the next 20 years. 37% of the experts
argue in favour of withdrawing from the nu-
communications companies will take over the
clear energy programme. On the other hand,
(increasingly complex) billing for energy sup-
61% of French respondents are in favour of fur-
pliers by 2030. The break-through of players
ther developing or maintaining nuclear power.
from outside the industry into the energy mar-
Moreover, 64% of French specialists consider
ket, for example Rewe, Google and Amazon, is
that full withdrawal from nuclear energy will
also considered probable by 2030.
probably never be achieved.
Six out of ten experts anticipate that tele-
Two thirds of the experts consulted are of
In the event of extensive dependence on al-
the opinion that the energy suppliers will ob-
ternative energies, 46% of the experts expect
tain at least 10% of their turnover from smart
a secure energy supply by 2030 and 40% for a
building service packages by 2030 at the lat-
later period.
est. In addition, 55% of the experts surveyed
could imagine that the energy suppliers will
lose around 10% of their turnover to the real
estate industry by 2030, made up of over a
12
quarter between now and 2020 and over a quarter in the period
from 2020 to 2030. For 69% of the experts, remote maintenance
will account for approximately 5% of the energy suppliers’ total
turnover in 2030.
WHO WILL PAY FOR THE ENERGY TRANSITION?
62% of the experts are convinced that the private end user will
pay for the energy transition. However, only 27% of those experts
surveyed believe that customers are willing to pay significantly
higher prices for “green products”. Finally, 86% of all respondents
consider price and convenience to be the determining factors for
buying decisions in the energy sector.
How efficient are the measures introduced by politicians?
83% of all the experts indicate that the measures introduced by
their respective national governments for implementing the energy transition are insufficient. For 80% of the experts, tax incentives represent an appropriate measure for promoting the energy transition. 70% of those surveyed consider strict government
regulations to be vital to implementation of the energy transition.
91% agree that there is a need for a widely applied marketing
campaign, particularly by politicians but also by grid operators to
convince consumers of the advantages of new technologies and
metering equipment.
2.
SMART GRID – SMART METER | INTELLIGENT GRIDS
AND METERS
RENEWABLE ENERGIES ARE ON THE RISE
In an energy supply system with a high proportion of renewable energies, this system must be able to deal with
completely
covering
the
load
using
renewable
ener-
gies. For this reason it is vital to develop intelligent grids.
87% of the specialists agree with the statement that high-performance grids can only be achieved with a consistent information
and telecommunications infrastructure.
55% of the experts think that intelligent grids will have been
introduced nationwide in their country by 2030. 15% believe that
nationwide equipment coverage will be achieved by 2020. 34%
expect such a development later than 2030 and 8% of the specialists ticked the “probably never” category. While the experts from
Luxembourg, France and Belgium believe in nationwide equipment coverage by 2030, 44% of the German experts consider this
will not be possible until after 2030 and 13% think this will "probably never" be possible.
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enovos trendwatch
The most important reasons for delays in the
surveyed believe that one in five homes will
development of intelligent grids are accept-
have turned into a “prosumer” by 2030.
ance problems on the public’s part, for exam-
In the opinion of the experts, the new func-
ple, and high investment costs. 55% of those
tionalities of the smart meters will gain ac-
surveyed think that sufficient investment and
ceptance with consumers at different speeds.
planning security will be created for the grids
62% think that proactive advance warnings
by 2020. At present, the governments are at-
by the energy companies with the aim of pre-
tempting to accelerate the licensing proce-
venting higher electricity costs will be wide-
dures for infrastructure projects. The experts
spread by 2020. 61% hold the view that 10%
are split, however, about when a significant ac-
of private households will reap cost benefits
celeration will have been achieved. 33% of the
from electricity prices based on the time of
experts believe in a shortening of the licensing
day or day of the week by 2020. 83% of the
procedures to three months between 2015 and
experts consider that by 2030 it will be possi-
2020. 56% are of the opinion that transparent
ble to control private energy consumption via
procedures for involving the public will be es-
the Smartphone. 44% believe that this service
tablished by 2020.
will already have been introduced by 2020. In
For the period after 2020, it will increas-
the view of 47% of respondents, direct load
ingly be a case of which sites and which tech-
control, where electricity suppliers will switch
nologies will be used to produce electricity
off household appliances to save the consum-
cost-effectively from renewable energies. In
er higher energy costs, will only gradually gain
the best possible case, it will be possible to
acceptance by 2030 or later in 50% of house-
cover Europe’s energy requirement complete-
holds – not least because not every household
ly using renewable energies. 53% of all the
wants to permit remote access to its appli-
respondents think that the super grids neces-
ances.
sary for this will not be in use until after 2030.
DRIVERS AND BARRIERS
SMART METERS WILL ONLY ASSERT THEM-
77% of the experts believe that smart me-
SELVES AND ADVANCE THE ENERGY TRAN-
ter services for end users are not yet attrac-
SITION WHERE OLD METERS ARE REPLACED
tive enough for suppliers to generate signifi-
FREE OF CHARGE.
cant turnover from them. In the view of 92%
The introduction of electronic metering equip-
of the experts in each case, smart meters will
ment, so-called smart meters in private house-
become popular because they reduce energy
holds, is an innovation.
consumption and energy costs. For 82% of
those surveyed, it is important for meters to
75% of the experts expect smart meters
will be used in more than 90% of private
be replaced free of charge.
households by 2030. Over half the French and
The two most important barriers which
Luxembourg experts consider that this thresh-
form an obstacle to the nationwide introduc-
old value will already have been exceeded by
tion of smart meters are monthly basic charg-
2020 because in their countries the old me-
es and acquisition costs that are too high. This
ters are being exchanged for new meters free
is the opinion held by 89% and 87% of the ex-
of charge. 79% of those surveyed are of the
perts. By comparison, questions about data
opinion that intelligent meters can only gain
protection (67%) and data security (66%) are
nationwide acceptance if they are replaced
stated considerably less frequently as barriers.
free of charge. Private households will feed
energy into the grid themselves. 73% of those
14
THERE IS NO FUTURE FOR THE NATIONAL ENERGY TRANSITION AS AN ISOLATED SOLUTION. IT SHOULD TAKE PLACE
WITHIN A EUROPEAN CONTEXT.
The share of renewable energies in the national energy supply is
increasing in all EU countries. However, specific targets are being
defined according to the individual member countries in the EU’s
climate and energy package.
While 83% of the German and 58% of the Belgian experts be-
lieve that the targets for their countries will be met, 67% of the
Luxembourg and 61% of the French experts disagree. 55% of the
experts think that at best over half the energy requirement in their
countries will be covered by renewable energies after 2030.
3.
SMART HOME – SMART BUILDING | ENERGIE EFFICIENCY IN
BUILDINGS
REDUCING ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY RENOVATING EXISTING BUILDINGS AND CONSTRUCTING ENERGY-EFFICIENT NEW
BUILDINGS.
More than 40% of the energy consumed worldwide is "consumed"
by buildings. Room heat and hot water account for 85% of this.
Buildings also cause a fifth of all CO2 emissions.
According to the EU Buildings Directive, a carbon neutral build-
ing stock should be achieved by 2050 and as early as the end of
2020 all new buildings should be what is known as " Nearly Zero
Energy Buildings". In this type of building, the almost zero energy
demand should be met primarily from renewable energies.
Luxembourg’s experts are the most optimistic about achieving
this target. At least half the experts believe that the EU Building
Directive will be implemented on time. 62% of respondents from
Luxembourg envisage that this will be implemented in their country by 2020. While the experts in France are divided as to whether
this can be achieved, the majority of Belgian experts (54%) do not
expect that this can be put into practice.
In their national action plans, the national governments are
aiming for ambitious targets to increase the share of renewable
energies in the supply of heat and cooling.
Luxembourg, for example, is aiming for an increase in the share
from 4% in 2009 to 8.5% by 2020. Half of those polled are also
convinced that this can be achieved. While just under three quarters (72%) of the Germans think that a 15.5% share can be achieved
by 2020, in France by comparison two thirds (67%) of the experts
do not believe that their supply share of 33% can be reached in
2020.
90% of all the experts consulted are in favour of state subsidy
programmes for energy-saving renovation of all existing buildings.
15
enovos trendwatch
83% of all those surveyed argue for a legally
binding obligation to use renewable energies
75% of the French and 71% of the Luxembourg
in existing buildings. With 70% of all the re-
experts anticipate that 30% of the energy pre-
spondents' votes, the apportionment of in-
viously consumed in functional buildings will
vestments to energy-saving renovation ranks
be saved by 2030 as a result of energy-saving
third after efficiency of the measures to be
renovations.
taken.
60% of experts think that all functional
89% of the German, 85% of the Belgian,
buildings will be completely controlled by
“ENERGY-PLUS HOUSES” AND NEW TECH-
building automation by 2030. Building auto-
NOLOGIES
mation includes heating, cooling, dehumidifi-
WILL
ONLY
WIN
THROUGH
GRADUALLY.
cation, ventilation, shading and lighting. 20%
An "energy-plus house" will generate more
assume that extensive building automation
electricity than it uses itself. 64% of those
will already be a reality by 2020. 40% of the
polled hold the view that by 2030 one house
experts do not expect this until 2030, 29% for
in five will be a plus energy house. The Bel-
the years following.
gians are the pioneers: 31% consider this possible by as early as 2020. In comparison, one
ONE IN FIVE PRIVATE HOUSES A SMART
in two Germans (56%), 42% of the Belgian
HOUSE BY 2030?
and 44% of the Luxembourg experts think this
In a smart home, all devices in the home au-
might not be possible until 2030. The French
tomation (e.g. heating, ventilation, lighting),
are more cautious: 42% only anticipate this
the household appliances (e.g. fridge, cooker,
scenario at a later date, i.e. after 2030.
washing machine), the consumer electronics
60% of experts anticipate the breakthrough
and the communication system are linked with
of new technologies for storing excess energy
each other. Intelligent homebox systems take
in buildings by 2030. 72% of the German, 69%
care of the energy management and control
of the Belgian, 45% of the Luxembourg and
the interaction of the devices.
34% of the French experts agreed with this
scenario. One expert in five polled expects the
each of the four countries are probably smart
breakthrough of intelligent control systems for
homes. 56% of the German experts, 47% of the
energy management in buildings by 2015.
Luxembourg and 27% of the Belgian experts
Currently, at best 1% of new buildings in
believe that an increase in the percentage of
SMART BUILDINGS: ENERGY EFFICIENCY
new buildings which are smart homes from
IS WORTHWHILE EVEN IN FUNCTIONAL
currently around 1% to 20% will be possible as
BUILDINGS.
early as 2020. France tends to be pessimistic
Functional buildings are, for example, offic-
in comparison with other countries: 33% of the
es, administration buildings, hotels, schools,
experts expect this change by 2020 and an-
swimming pools and accommodation for the
other third by 2030, however 25% also believe
elderly. Is it worthwhile to run functional build-
that this proportion can never be reached i.e.
ings efficiently in terms of energy? We had this
not even at a later date.
question assessed by the international expert
team.
experts expect to see home climate manage-
84% of the German and 76% of the French
According to calculations made by dena,
ment systems in use in one in five private
industrial enterprises could reduce their en-
households by 2030 at the latest. 72% of all
ergy costs by 4.4 billion euros by 2020 if they
experts believe that, by 2030, one in five pri-
optimise energy-consuming technologies and
vate households will have become a smart
introduce measures to deal with process heat.
home which can be controlled remotely. 83%
16
of the respondents think that automatic adjustment of the surroundings according to individual profiles regardless of their location will be possible by 2030 at the latest.
Electric vehicles could perform an important function in ad-
justing electricity supply and demand for private households as,
statistically, they are parked for between 95% and 98% of the year
and are therefore available as an energy storage device. 67% of
the experts believe that it will have become technically possible
to exchange energy between buildings and vehicles by 2030. The
German experts are particularly optimistic on this score: 86% think
it likely by 2030; 67% of French and 62% of Belgian experts agree
with this. Not even half (48%) of the Luxembourg experts surveyed
anticipate the integration of smart homes and electromobility by
2030.
THE RISE OF NEW WAYS OF LIVING AND DWELLING
In 2030 one in five Europeans will be 65 or older. Assistance systems make an important contribution to enabling older people to
lead a largely independent life at home. 92% of the German, 75%
of the French, 74% of the Belgian and 73% of the Luxembourg experts anticipate the use of age-appropriate assistance systems in
private households by 2030 at the latest.
71% of the experts believe that housing associations will gener-
ate 10% of their turnover from social housing management and
services in connection with care for the elderly by 2030 at the latest.
Health assistants are small mobile robots which look after peo-
ple in need of care in their own homes 24 hours a day. 75% of
the German experts anticipate the use of health assistants in private households by 2030. 56% of the Luxembourg, 50% of the
French and only 30% of the Belgian experts are anticipating this.
Two thirds of the experts believe that telemonitoring solutions will
have become established in at least 10% of private homes by 2030
at the latest.
18% of the experts believe that by 2020 at least 10% of the pop-
ulation will be living in a multigenerational household with dedicated apartments for different generations and additional rooms
that are used jointly. 61% of the experts think that this will have
happened by 2030 at the latest.
22% of all those surveyed expect that by 2030 one in four of
the population will live in a “network family”, that is one with new
care and relationship models which include not only the family
in the narrow sense, but also neighbours and friends. “Family is
where you can go the fridge without having to ask.”
17
enovos trendwatch
able energies by 2020. 30% anticipate this
In the view of the experts, the most impor-
quota between 2020 and 2030.
tant drivers for being able to progress the
The use of electric vehicles in company
penetration of smart home and smart build-
fleets may make a significant contribution to
ing solutions are 90% the reduction of the
their prevalence. In France, state and privately-
energy consumption and 85% the reduction
owned companies such as Air France, Areva,
of the energy costs. 85% of the experts also
Bouygues, EDF, France Telecom and the Post
consider the improvement of living comfort
intend to introduce a total of 50,000 electric
as an important incentive. 84% of the experts
cars. 11% of the French experts believe that
attribute the costs for intelligent building
the ten companies with the largest turnover
solutions as the main barriers to the imple-
have already undertaken to convert 50% of
mentation of smart home and smart building
their company vehicles to electric cars using
solutions, 77% attribute these barriers to lack
green electricity by 2015. 64% of all the experts
of standards and 76% to lack of expert staff
polled anticipate that by 2030 companies will
that are qualified to provide advice. 66% of
use predominantly electric vehicles operated
the experts also lament the lack of a system
with green electricity.
integrator.
The role of the energy suppliers in the field
of electromobility should not be underestimat4.
ed. 65% of the experts think that energy com-
SMART MOBILITY | ELECTRIC VEHICLES
panies will play an important role in the sale of
AND MODERN MOBILITY CONCEPTS
electric vehicles.
USING ELECTROMOBILITY TO ENSURE EN-
VIRONMENTALLY-FRIENDLY AND SUSTAIN-
global market leadership in electromobility by
ABLE PRIVATE TRANSPORT
2030.
Neither France nor Germany will achieve
Electromobility is a significant factor in the design of environmentally-friendly and sustain-
THE TRIUMPHANT MARCH OF ELECTROMO-
able private transport in the future.
BILITY WITH NEW DRIVE TECHNOLOGIES
The member countries of the European
Business and politics are investing heavily in the
Union have each set themselves ambitious
development of alternative drive technologies.
targets for penetrating the market for private
The intention is to reduce costs for the lithium-
transport with electric vehicles. 76% of all
ion batteries used at present. Completely new
those polled agree that the self-commitment
technologies which emit considerably less car-
of their respective national governments for
bon dioxide and can be used in electric vehicles
achieving a specific penetration rate for elec-
are also being developed. 75% of the experts
tric vehicles by 2020 is not realistic. Only 44%
polled are of the opinion that a completely new
of the French are confident that two million
battery technology will have become estab-
registered electric vehicles could be a reality
lished by 2030.
by 2020 because public facilities would be de-
pendent on switching to electric vehicles.
tric vehicles will mainly be equipped with plug-
51% of the experts believe that in 2020 elec-
Electric vehicles only protect the environ-
in hybrid drives. However, what we are dealing
ment better than cars driven by petrol or die-
with here is a bridging technology. 68% of the
sel if they are supplied with power from re-
experts expect that fuel cell technology will be
newable energies. In the view of the experts
technically mature by 2030 and will be offered
surveyed, this requirement is also not feasible.
at affordable prices. 67% of experts believe that
Only 23% assume that 70% of the electric ve-
by 2030 electric vehicles will have become mo-
hicles will be supplied with power from renew-
bile electricity storage devices in the smart grid.
18
85% of the experts are of the opinion that by 2030 there will be an
extensive infrastructure for electromobility equipped with charging stations on public car parks and in multi-storey car parks. 70%
of the experts think that fast-charging stations will be available nationwide by 2030. The charging process can be reduced to thirty
minutes at fast-charging stations. Over half the experts (53%) assume that by 2020 charging stations will mainly be operated by
energy utility companies.
PRIOR TO SETTING UP A NATIONWIDE INFRASTRUCTURE FOR
ELECTROMOBILITY IN BIG CITIES
The importance of owning your own car will decline particularly in
younger age groups. As a result, customised car sharing options,
intelligent solutions to public passenger transport and other mobility concepts using two and three-wheeled vehicles will become
more attractive. They will represent a reasonably priced alternative to buying an (electric) vehicle.
Nevertheless, 53% of the experts assume that in 2030 park &
ride systems in cities will be provided exclusively for electric vehicles. 72% of all those surveyed believe that “mobility on demand”,
i.e. car sharing with mobile and straightforward booking and invoicing systems, will have become established. The view of 38% of
the experts is that a scrapping premium for conventional vehicles
will have become established by 2030. In contrast, 64% believe
that by 2030 the financial incentives will be removed and electric
vehicles will only be rewarded with special parking zones and traffic lanes.
73% of the experts believe that electric vehicles will be more
environmentally friendly by 2020 than cars with internal combustion engines. 46% of the experts think that owning a car will
remain a status symbol for the younger generation. 52% believe,
however, that this will no longer be the case in 2020.
64% of those polled do not think that new mobility concepts
will lead to a 30% reduction in the sale of private vehicles by 2020.
53% are of the opinion that the introduction of congestion charges
will reduce the volume of traffic in towns by a quarter by 2020.
A competitive market price (95% of the experts), low maintenance
and operational costs (91% of the experts) and a country-wide
charging infrastructure (88% of the experts) are the most important drivers for the successful market development of electric vehicles.
59% of the experts believe that electric vehicles will be avail-
able to consumers in the market at an attractive competitive price
by 2020.
enovos trendwatch
High purchase costs (almost all experts, 99%),
short range (81%) and the limited battery life
in addition to other technical problems (78%)
count as important barriers.
AND IN FUTURE ...
On behalf of the TNS Group, a huge thank you
goes to all the experts from Luxembourg, Germany, France and Belgium who contributed to
this study and took part in the survey.
I am very pleased that the Enovos Group
has embarked with us on the pioneering path
of establishing a FUTURE SUMMIT for the energy industry which will be held every two
years. Thank you very much for the constructive cooperation.
Sincerely,
Dr. Sabine Graumann
19
CHAPTER A
SMART ENERGY
ENERGY TRANSITION
20
enovos trendwatch
21
fünf
und
neunzig
—
sechs
1.
und
A new energy supply system is
needed – but where to find one?
Changing energy supplies is more important than ever because
fossil sources are dwindling by the minute, and measures to protect the climate are urgently required. However, this can only happen if the politicians and industry agree on the further course of
action together – and consumers are included in the development.
How can we guarantee safe and affordable energy supplies and
improve climate protection, especially through new technologies,
the increased use of renewable energies and improving energy efficiency?
Unless the politicians act, average temperatures on the planet
will increase by four degrees by the end of the century. The European Union wants to press ahead with the energy transition by
setting “20-20-20” goals, which would commit all the EU Member
States to achieve the following by 2020:
• lower greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% over 1990;
• aim to increase energy efficiency by 20%, and
• increase the proportion of renewable energies in gross energy
consumption by 20%.
neunzig
22
This calls for a fundamental reconstruction of energy supplies,
which will be achieved primarily through three influential factors:
1. Increasing prices and risks for supply security as
the consequence of dwindling fossil energy resources: On the one hand, there is a global increase in the
demand for energy; on the other, there is an increasing shortage in fossil energy sources. The consequences are increasing
energy prices, especially for crude oil, a serious dependence on
the international markets for raw ingredients, and growing risks
with regard to the security of supply. The four countries being
analysed are still largely dependent on energy imports.
2. SMART GRIDS: The second influencing factor is that increases in energy consumption and prices result in more electricity
from renewable energy sources having to be integrated in the
electricity grid in an increasingly decentralised supply structure. This calls for maximum flexibility in grid voltage stability,
and efficient, intelligent load flow management.
3. DECOUPLING THROUGH RENEWABLE ENERGIES: Renewable
energies are to have become the supporting pillar of energy
supplies by the middle of the century. Their proportion of the
gross final energy consumption should have increased to up to
50% by then.
This means that electricity production, transfer and distri-
bution will be decoupled from the energy grid of the future. In
order for this to happen, the various players, consumers and
prosumers along the value chain must interact through shared
interfaces, communicate with each other and handle large
quantities of data in smart automated processes.
enovos trendwatch
These three driving factors also come into effect in a time when
there is a significant requirement for investment in the grids
in order to develop the capacities of the new energy supply
system. The centralised energy grid with predominantly unidirectional communication has to become a service-based, locally organised system.
This presents many different opportunities for established
and new companies and for the development of regional businesses.
Many questions currently remain unanswered with regard
to how energy supply should be approached. 158 experts answered the following questions in this chapter.
• How far have we already progressed along the path to a new
energy supply system?
• What new products or services will win through, and which
established products and services will be replaced by innovations?
• What do the providers’ new business models look like?
• How will this energy transition affect the consumer?
• How can politics make the framework conditions for the
new energy supply system more appealing on the investment and innovation level?
23
24
2.
THE ENERGY MIX OF THE FUTURE –
THE PROJECT OF THE CENTURY
Industrial countries are facing the project of a century with the
conversion of their energy supplies. It can certainly be compared
to the digitalisation of industry and society. It will be a serious risk
to the competitiveness of the industrial countries if the change
to a safe, economical and climate-compatible energy supply fails.
In the following, we question the continued dependence on oil
imports, the future development of the energy mix, the opportunities for suppliers offered by the energy transition, the required
features of an energy policy, and the consequences of the energy
transition for the consumer – all in relation to the developed energy markets of Luxembourg, Germany, France and Belgium.
THE USA WILL BE INDEPENDENT OF ENERGY IMPORTS, BUT
WHAT ABOUT EUROPE? Other energy sources such as shale are
currently being developed in the USA using new technologies. As
a consequence, the country requires more oil and gas. According
to calculations by the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2017
the USA will replace Saudi Arabia as the biggest oil-consuming
country, and will virtually be independent of energy imports. At
the moment, the prices for oil and “unconventional shale gas” are
in free fall in the USA. However, shale gas can only be obtained at
great expense, using toxic chemicals and water and energy inputs.
Worldwide, there is a 50% increase in the demand for natural
gas. By 2030, half of all gas trade will be handled by liquefaction of natural gas and subsequent transportation on special ships.
Changes in the transportation of fossil fuels reduce the importance
of the operators of major pipelines and the transit countries.
We asked our team of experts how dependence on energy im-
ports can be reduced in their countries, and what they think the
energy mix will look like in twenty years’ time.
25
enovos trendwatch
THESIS 1:
ENERGY IMPORTS
Dependence on energy imports will reduce by 10%.
A
RM
GE
8
NY
FRA
NC
E
18
33
29
38
22
48
36
5
4
30
25
15
28
M
19
IU
LG
LUXE
M
18
BE
BO
UR
G
13
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 3%
by 2020: 37%
by 2030: 29%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 69%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 12%
probably never: 17%
Slightly more than two out of three experts predict a 10% re-
≥ 40% of the experts
duction in the import figure by 2030 at the latest. Luxembourg,
30-39%
Germany, France and Belgium are largely dependent on energy
20-29%
imports. However, the actual figures vary. Luxembourg’s rate is the
10-19%
highest at 98%. It is followed by Belgium with an import rate of
< 10%
76.3%, and Germany with 60.6%. France’s use of nuclear power
Remainder for
means that its dependence on energy imports is the lowest at
100%: don't know
49.8%.
40% of those interviewed believe that there will probably be a 10%
reduction in energy imports by 2020, and of 29% by 2030. 12% of
the experts predict it will not be achieved until after 2030. 17% believe that a 10% reduction cannot be achieved without a time limit.
However, 5% of German and 4% of Luxembourg experts believed
that a 10% reduction in the import rate could be achieved by 2015.
Base: 158 respondents
26
THESIS 2:
THE ENERGY MIX OF THE FUTURE
What types of energy should be developed or re-
5%
coal 8.
1%
mineral oil 9.
ON
LO
PS
TR
VE
AB
DE
Overall comparison of all countries: Only the figures for the categories "develop strongly or develop". Coal: only "develop".
EL
Y
nuclear energy 7.
ET
10%
CO
MP
L
natural gas 6.
N
42%
E
biomass | biogas 4.
DO
70%
DU
C
hydropower 4.
AN
70%
RE
photovoltaics 3.
N
76%
MA
IN
TA
I
geothermal energy 2.
VE
81%
DE
wind energy 1.
GL
Y
95%
LO
P
duced over the coming 20 years?
enovos trendwatch
95% of the experts asked are in favour of the development of wind power – 81% want to see an increase
in geothermal energy.
We started by asking this question: “If you think about the energy
mix, which types of energy do you think should be developed and
which reduced over the coming 20 years?”
The experts all clearly agreed that renewable energy sources
should be developed over the coming 20 years. Natural gas is the
only fossil fuel that should continue to be developed. There should
be a reduction, at least proportionally, in mineral oils, coal and nuclear energy.
If we combine the experts’ responses to “develop strongly" and
“develop”, then the following results speak in favour of the development of renewable energy sources.
• 95% of the experts favoured a further development of wind
energy.
• 81% of the experts wanted an increase in geothermal energy.
• 76% of the experts would like to see a greater use of photovoltaics.
• 70% of the experts would like to see more use being made of
hydropower or biomass/biogas.
The results by country are:
Luxembourg: The Luxembourg experts’ opinions followed the
above ranking. Wind energy is in first place with 93%.
Germany: 98% of the German experts support the development
of wind energy in first place, and 71% put hydropower in second
place. The development of photovoltaics follows at 68%, and of
biomass/biogas at 54%.
France: The French experts favoured the development of wind
energy, geothermal energy and biomass/biogas at 86% each. 79%
wanted to see hydropower being developed, and 75% were in favour of the use of photovoltaics being expanded.
Belgium: In Belgium, wind power was in first place at 98%. 88% of
the experts were in favour of photovoltaics being developed (2nd
place); 85% of them wanted more used to be made of biomass/
biogas (3rd place), and 75% of geothermal heat (4th place).
27
28
Natural gas should be developed, and the dependence on other
fossil fuels and nuclear power reduced. The key results:
• 42% of respondents wanted to see the continued development
of natural gas. 11% of the experts were against this development.
• 37% of experts wanted the use of nuclear power to be stopped
altogether. Another 35% wanted to see a reduction in the dependence on nuclear energy. Only 10% of the experts wanted to
see an increase in the development of nuclear energy.
• 20% of the experts wanted the use of coal to be stopped. Another 56% would like to see a reduction in the dependence on
coal. 24% were in favour of coal being used more widely.
• 16% of the experts wanted the use of mineral oil to stop completely. 67% were in favour of at least a reduction in the dependence on oil.
Important results by country are:
Luxembourg: 26% of the Luxembourg experts wanted to see
an end to the use of natural gas, while 74% wanted it to be maintained or developed further.
Germany: 52% of the German experts were in favour of more use
being made of natural gas. 95% wanted to stop the use of nuclear
energy, 90% of oil, and 71% of coal.
France: 93% of the French experts want to stop the use of coal,
but only 36% want to back out of the nuclear energy programme.
61% were in favour of nuclear energy being developed or maintained. 25% were in favour of the development of natural gas.
Belgium: 73% of the Belgian experts wanted a reduction in the
dependence on mineral oil, and 72% also wanted to see a reduction in the dependence on coal. The same figure for nuclear energy was 60%.
29
enovos trendwatch
3.
Can energy producers and grid operators cope
with these challenges?
Energy supply has largely been centralised in
The energy industry, and in particular that for
the past, but will now face tremendous chal-
renewable industries, is one of the most im-
lenges as it changes over to renewable en-
portant growth industries in the four countries
ergies (including natural gas). This applies
where we interviewed the experts. In the fol-
equally to the energy providers, grid opera-
lowing, we explain current questions from the
tors, regional suppliers, municipal utilities in
energy industry as perceived by the experts.
Germany and the other players on the energy
This includes the future contribution by the
markets.
energy industry towards overall development,
The change in the energy industry is mul-
the future of gas and coal-fired power plants
ti-layered. Grids and sales are separate; for-
and the strategic and organisational / struc-
mer customers will become producers. In the
tural challenges for energy producers and grid
past, energy was produced ideally using major
operators.
technology in coal, gas and nuclear power stations. The experts that we interviewed in the
four countries are sure that localised forms of
energy production such as photovoltaics and
the production of gas in micro combined heat
and power plant stations or micro turbines will
become established by 2020.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is
expecting significant changes on the global
energy markets. Between 2015 and 2020, the
USA will replace Russia as the leading natural
DR. BERNHARD REUTERSBERG
MEMBER OF THE BOARD
gas-producing country.
OF E.ON SE,
European countries have no significant fos-
DÜSSELDORF,
sil energy basis of their own. However, their
GERMANY
industry includes energy-intensive industries,
and more energy will be consumed in their
households – as in all developed countries – in
the future. As the result, they are vulnerable
to increasing energy prices in the international
A
t E.ON, we assume that by 2020,
30 to 40% of the newly installed
production capacity will come from lo-
competition. The most promising options for
cal technologies. This will fundamental-
remaining competitive, apart from choosing
ly change the energy market, and will
renewable energies, are the measures for in-
challenge the energy suppliers’ tradi-
creasing energy efficiency, which are included
tional business models. We set up E.ON
in the EU policy for 2020. According to the
Connecting Energies to develop this
IEA, worldwide more than two thirds of the
business area.
current energy saving potential still remain
unused.
30
THESIS 3: CONTRIBUTION TO THE ECONOMY AS A WHOLE
THE ENERGY INDUSTRY IS BOOSTING INNOVATION, WHICH
WILL MAKE IT A GROWTH ENGINE FOR THE INDUSTRY AS
A WHOLE.
85%
Luxembourg
64%
France
65%
68%
BELGIUM
GERMANY
THESIS 4: INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES
INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES, AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STORAGE TECHNOLOGY IN PARTICULAR, ARE THE CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS FOR THE ENERGY TRANSITION.
100%
89% 84% 90%
France
Luxembourg
GERMANY
Percentage of agreement | Base: 158 respondents
BELGIUM
enovos trendwatch
70% of the experts see the energy industry as an overall
growth engine. Almost two thirds of the experts believe that
there will be an increase in the share of added value in the
gross domestic product generated by the energy industry. Furthermore, the energy industry will boost innovation in the user/
consumer branches, and so will become an overall growth engine.
There is very little difference in opinion among the experts of
the various countries. 68% of the German experts, 65% of the
Belgian and 64% of the French experts are of this opinion. In
Luxembourg, however, the number of experts who agree is
much higher at 85%.
89% of the experts are of the opinion that technical innovations, particularly in the field of new storage technologies,
are the determining variable for the success of the energy
transition. All the experts in France are of this opinion. In Luxembourg, the figure drops to 89%, in Belgium to 90% and in
Germany to 84%.
Renewable forms of energy will only be successful if they can
also be stored so they are available when they are needed.
31
32
THESIS 5: GAS AND COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS
IN VIEW OF THE PRIORITY OF RENEWABLE ENERGIES, GAS
AND COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS WILL NOT BE ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AFTER 2020 AND SO ARE NO LONGER BEING
BUILT.
36%
33%
France
Luxembourg
23%
40%
BELGIUM
GERMANY
THESIS 6: ERODING CORE BUSINESS
THE ENERGY SUPPLIERS’ CORE BUSINESS IN THE AREAS
OF ELECTRICITY AND GAS PRODUCTION IS ERODING. THE
MAJOR ENERGY COMPANIES ARE UNABLE TO FIND AN APPROPRIATE BUSINESS MODEL UNDER THESE CHANGING
CONDITIONS.
22%
Luxembourg
France
33%
GERMANY
68%
73%
BELGIUM
enovos trendwatch
61% of the experts believe that gas and coal-fired power
plants will be economically viable after 2020, and will still be
required. Despite the political will and high investments, developing renewable energy sources will not mean, in the short
term, that the traditional fossil fuel, environmentally harmful
energy production plants can be switched off. These plants will
continue to be needed and remain economically viable after
2020.
However, 40% of the German experts believe otherwise. In
France, this figure drops to 36%, in Luxembourg to 33% and in
Belgium to 23%.
The experts are not agreed on the sustainability of the energy
suppliers’ business models. 74% of the experts in Luxembourg
and 67% of the German experts are convinced that energy suppliers will continue to have a successful business model in the
future. 68% of the French experts and 73% of the Belgians do
not agree.
33
34
THESIS 7: SOCIAL AND ECOLOGICAL TARGETS
Companies in the energy sector integrate social
86%
83% 88%
and ecological targets in their strategies and
make them central components of their external
communication.
56%
Luxembourg
France
BELGIUM
GERMANY
THESIS 8: SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES
SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES WILL MEAN ADDITIONAL PROFITS FOR ENERGY COMPANIES IN THE MEDIUM
TERM.
74%
Luxembourg
75%
France
73%
GERMANY
68%
BELGIUM
enovos trendwatch
80% of the experts believe that social and ecological arguments will increasingly feature in the energy companies’
external communication. The Luxembourg experts are most
likely to disagree with this. Here, 33% believe that social and
ecological aspects will hardly figure at all in the future, not in
corporate strategies and not in communication. In other countries, there are fewer than half as many critical voices to be
heard on this subject.
72% of the experts believe that sustainable economic activities will pay off for companies in the energy industry. According to the experts, energy companies are already interested in
acting sustainably because it will already bring them financial
benefits in the medium term.
There are only minor differences between the countries. 75%
of the French, 74% of the Luxembourg, 73% of the German and
68% of the Belgian experts are of this opinion.
35
36
4.
ENERGY SUPPLIERS’ NEW BUSINESS MODELS
Energy suppliers will have to face declining
• As “efficiency partners to their custom-
sales over the coming years – if not slumps
ers”, they advise them on issues of energy-
in the traditional supply business. The energy
saving, sustainable and environmentally
markets of the future cannot just be about “ba-
friendly energy supplies.
sically” providing energy at market-appropriate prices. The energy industry has to include
“KNOWING YOUR CUSTOMERS” IS A SIG-
the following developments in its calculations
NIFICANT ADVANTAGE: The most important
for the development of new business models:
advantage for established energy suppliers
is direct access to end customers. The qual-
• the conversion of energy supply on the ba-
ity and differentiation of customer data is of
sis of renewable energies in combination
key significance. This will be complemented in
with conventional energies;
the future by detailed consumption data col-
• a shrinking market as a consequence of de-
lection by smart meters. This will result in op-
mographic developments and an increase
portunities for new providers in the fields of
in energy efficiency;
data processing and data mining. With regard
• more intense competition as non-indus-
to billing, energy data management, customer
try competitors enter the market, such as
contact management and functioning man-
offshore wind plants, or on the consumer
agement, smart metering will increase the re-
market;
quirements expected of energy suppliers.
• the development of new smart technologies.
In the expert survey, suppliers were postu-
lated by telecommunications companies and
independent retailers or online companies as
The following looks at just some of the more
new players because they are particularly suit-
likely business models as examples.
able for the efficient processing of comparable mass processes in the customer field.
CONSULTING: Energy suppliers are entering
the consulting market, and acting as “produc-
MINERAL OIL COMPANIES AS ENERGY SUP-
tion managers”, “virtual suppliers” or “efficien-
PLIERS: One example of a completely new
cy partners” to their customers.
business model is the likely commitment of
mineral oil companies as energy suppliers for
• In their function as "production manager”,
electromobility. They could be positioned ar-
the suppliers support their customers by
ea-wide on service station fuel pumps.
advising them on the options of energy
production, on funding, on the selection
ated the sustainability of selected new busi-
and use of technology, and on issues of
ness models.
maintenance.
• As “virtual suppliers”, the providers advise
on the use of energy-creating and consuming appliances and their combination to
create energy management systems, and
monitors the combination remotely to ensure that it is functioning efficiently.
In the following, the team of experts evalu-
37
enovos trendwatch
THESIS 9:
ENERGY CONSULTANTS
ENERGY SUPPLIERS GENERATE AT LEAST 10% OF THEIR SALES
FROM CONSULTING AND OTHER SERVICES.
A
RM
GE
6
NY
FRA
NC
E
14
11
48
11
19
22
6
57
11
22
10
45
30
8
8
M
LUXE
M
29
IU
LG
11
4
BE
BO
UR
G
10
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 11%
by 2020: 44%
by 2030: 24%
probably never
after 2030:
by 2030: 79%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 8%
probably never: 9%
More than every second expert believes that a 10% share in turn-
over for energy consulting will be achieved by 2020. 79% of the
40-49%
respondents believe that this will not be possible until after 2020,
20-39%
but will be before 2030.
10-19%
68% of the French experts think that a 10% share in turnover will
< 10%
be probably by 2020.
Remainder for
22% of the experts in Luxembourg expect a 10% share in turnover
100%: don't know
by 2015, and a further 22% by 2020.
38
THESIS 10:
TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANIES
AS COMPETITORS
TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANIES ARE TAKING OVER THE
INCREASINGLY COMPLEX ACCOUNTING FOR ENERGY SUPPLIERS.
NY
MA
R
GE
21
FRA
NC
E
18
29
41
7
19
30
29
8
7
11
3
25
28
13
20
M
LUXE
M
19
IU
LG
19
7
BE
BO
UR
G
5
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 7%
by 2020: 33%
probably never
by 2030: 23%
after 2030:
by 2030: 63%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 8%
probably never: 20%
Six of ten experts believe that this scenario will have become
the reality by 2030 at the latest. In view of their direct contact to
30-39%
companies in the energy sector and their expertise in the handling
20-29%
and processing of large quantities of data, telecommunications
10-19%
companies are almost imposing themselves as subcontractors.
< 10%
However, companies in the energy industry are asking themselves
Remainder for
whether their customer information really would be protected in a
100%: don't know
cooperation with telecommunications companies.
7% of the experts believe that the above scenario will become the
reality by 2015, a further 33% think it will happen by 2020, and yet
another 23% believe it will be so by 2030. However, 20% of the
experts believe it will never happen.
Almost half of the German experts believe that the scenario will
have come true by 2020 at the latest. Only 28% of the Belgian
experts are of the same opinion, which is shared by 41% of the
Luxembourg ones.
39
enovos trendwatch
THESIS 11:
NEW SALES CHANNELS
RETAILERS SUCH AS REWE AND ONLINE COMPANIES SUCH AS
GOOGLE AND AMAZON ARE ENTERING THE ENERGY MARKET,
AND WILL ACQUIRE EVERY FOURTH ELECTRICITY CUSTOMER.
NY
MA
R
GE
22
FRA
NC
E
25
29
13
19
4
26
7
2
7
11
25
43
13
15
M
LUXE
M
30
IU
LG
11
29
BE
BO
UR
G
29
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 4%
by 2020: 17%
by 2030: 29%
probably never
after 2030:
by 2030: 50%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 23%
probably never: 19%
According to 50% of the experts, the breakthrough by players
from other industries on the energy market will probably not
30-39%
happen in the medium term until 2030.
20-29%
23% expect that this scenario will not become the reality until af-
10-19%
ter 2030. 19% of the experts believe it will never happen. Every
< 10%
second German (51%) and 54% of the French believe that players
Remainder for
from other industries will not enter the market until some time in
100%: don't know
the distant future, i.e. after 2030 or never.
40
THESIS 12:
MINERAL OIL COMPANIES AS NEW SELLERS
MINERAL OIL COMPANIES ARE APPEARING AS ENERGY SUPPLIERS FOR ELECTROMOBILITY AND OFFERING "ELECTRICITY
FUEL PUMPS" AT SERVICE STATIONS NATIONWIDE.
NY
MA
R
GE
14
FRA
NC
E
14
32
3
15
26
48
36
2
4
30
40
23
8
M
LUXE
M
37
IU
LG
4
18
BE
BO
UR
G
44
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 1%
by 2020: 23%
probably never
by 2030: 35%
after 2030:
by 2030: 59%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 29%
probably never: 11%
Polarisation of the opinions between optimistic Luxembourgers
and sceptical Germans. The experts in the various countries have
30-39%
different opinions. Only 5% of the German experts believe that the
20-29%
above scenario will become the reality by 2020, which is shared by
10-19%
52% of the experts in Luxembourg.
< 10%
By contrast, 14% of the German experts, but only 4% of the experts
Remainder for
in Luxembourg, believe that this scenario will never come true.
100%: don't know
In Belgium, 40% of the respondents believe it will happen between
2020 and 2030; in France 36% believe it will come true by 2020,
and a further 32% think the year will be 2030.
41
enovos trendwatch
5.
WILL PRIVATE CONSUMERS BE PREPARED
TO PAY FOR THE ENERGY TRANSITION?
The price of electricity is going to go up because more use is going
to be made of renewable energy, and nuclear power stations are
being replaced by gas and coal-fired power plants. In Germany, the
change in the production mix will lead to a real increase in electricity wholesale prices by 2020; according to the calculations by A.T.
Kearney the rate may fluctuate between 4% and 23% a year.
Even before the EEG apportionment increases by 5.3%, Germa-
ny’s electricity prices are the highest at an average of 25.28 cents
per kwh in comparison with the rest of Europe. Only the Danes
pay more for their electricity – 29.08 cents. In comparison with the
major industrial countries in the European Union, France is at the
lower end of the price scale with 13.84 cents.
The following chapter focuses on the effects of the energy tran-
sition on the energy suppliers' private customers. We asked the
experts whether consumers will accept constant increases in the
price of electricity. We also wanted to know: Who will be paying for
the energy transition – the consumers or the major industrial customers? Will consumers be prepared to pay much more for “green
products” in the future? Based on which criteria will customers buy
energy?
I
t is clear that these goals can only be achieved if the implementation is advanced consistently. In order for the
energy transition to succeed, i.e. for the private end user
not only to be burdened with higher energy costs but to
make permanent changes to his energy consumption, the
energy producers and the politicians have to demonstrate
the costs and benefits of the change plausibly and transparently. The costs for the change must be distributed in
such as way that they remain viable for the end user and
for industry. The end user’s acceptance will largely be determined by the extent to which the financial burden is distributed.
As a general rule, we all have a duty to accept responsibility for future generations. The energy transition will not
come free; not today and not tomorrow.
Luc Biever
Managing Director
TNS Ilres,
LUXEMBOURG
42
THESIS 13: FINANCING THE ENERGY TRANSITION
PRIVATE END USERS WILL PAY FOR THE ENERGY TRANSITION, AND NOT THE MAJOR INDUSTRIAL CUSTOMERS AND
COMPANIES OF THE ENERGY INDUSTRY.
48%
Luxembourg
57%
France
55%
75%
BELGIUM
GERMANY
THESIS 14: “GREEN PRODUCTS”
CUSTOMERS ARE PREPARED TO PAY SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
FOR “GREEN PRODUCTS” AND ENERGY SERVICES.
22%
Luxembourg
France
44%
GERMANY
14%
13%
BELGIUM
enovos trendwatch
62% of the experts are convinced that the private end user
will pay for the energy transition. However, the level of agreement did vary tremendously among the countries. Whereas the
rate of agreement dropped to 57% in France, 55% in Belgium
and 48% in Luxembourg, in Germany it was 75%.
However, consumers in Germany are used to absorbing costs,
because the contribution for renewable energies is constantly
increasing although the production of green energy is becoming cheaper at the same time.
The experts questioned do not believe that customers are
prepared to pay much more for “green products” and energy
services. Here too, though, there are significant differences in
the various countries’ rates of agreement: 44% of German experts, but only 22% of the Luxembourg, 14% of French and 13%
of Belgian experts believe that consumers are willing to pay for
“green products”. There is therefore a different attitude and
mentality in Germany with regard to the willingness to pay any
additional costs for “green products” and energy services with
private money.
43
44
THESIS 15: PRICE AND CONVENIENCE
Price and convenience are the key factors when
100%
78% 83%
88%
private consumers in the energy sector make their
decision to purchase.
France
Luxembourg
GERMANY
BELGIUM
THESIS 16: DATA PRIVACY
CONSUMERS TRUST THAT THEIR PERSONAL DETAILS WILL
REMAIN CONFIDENTIAL.
56%
Luxembourg
64%
France
37%
GERMANY
65%
BELGIUM
enovos trendwatch
86% of the experts believe that price and convenience are
key factors in purchasing decisions in the energy sector. The
French experts were in complete agreement with this thesis,
while 88% of the Belgian, 83% of the German and 78% of the
Luxembourg experts were of the same opinion.
By contrast, the experts believed that principals and energypolitical convictions were of virtually no significance in the consumers’ decision to purchase.
Accordingly, in order for the energy transition to succeed, prices would have to be controlled politically. The experts believed
that energy prices without additional charges would not cover
any costs resulting, for instance, from the energy transition.
Large minorities, and a majority in Germany, have no confidence in the data protection assurances given by energy
suppliers. Expert opinion on this thesis varied tremendously
among the countries.
65% of the Belgian experts, 64% of the French, 56% of the Luxembourg, but only 37% of the German experts believed that
their personal details are adequately protected by energy suppliers.
45
46
6.
How efficient are the measures introduced
by politicians?
The new EU Energy Efficiency Directive
(2012/27/EU) came into force on 4 December
2012. Its aim is to achieve a 20% reduction in
primary energy consumption in the Member
States by 2020.
The Member States are to ensure that be-
tween 2014 and 2020, 1.5% of the average
annual final energy sale of the years 2010 to
CLAUDE TURMES
2012 is saved. It is up to the Member States
Member of the European Parliament
to decide how they are to achieve this target,
and Vice-President of the green fraction
in the European Parliament,
i.e. whether preference is to be given to the
Luxembourg
instrument of funding policy or tax policy.
From April 2014, and every three years af-
ter that, the Member States in the Commission
will submit national energy efficiency plans of
how they will further increase their energy ef-
T
he future of energy supply is clear.
Electricity from wind and sun will
be at the centre of the future electricity
ficiency. There will also be annual reports on
system in European, not least because
the successes that have been achieved so far.
they will keep becoming cheaper. Elec-
We asked the experts in the four countries
tricity from onshore wind farms is hard-
to evaluate the efficiency of the measures
ly any more expensive than electricity
preferred by their governments, for instance
from gas power stations. The costs for
in legislation, in their funding and incentives
photovoltaic systems have halved in
policies, and in their information policy for pri-
the past three years. With regard to
vate consumers. What level of agreement is
the core pair “wind” and “solar”, flex-
there in the European Union’s energy policy?
ible gas and biomass power stations are
To be more specific: do Luxembourg, Germa-
needed to provide the necessary back-
ny, France and Belgium tend towards different
up capacities.
energy policies?
The dominant position of wind and sun
will also have consequences for the design of the European energy market. Individual German and French electricity
markets will no longer exist. The German, French, Benelux and Austrian electricity markets will become far more cohesive as the “Central West European
electricity market”, along the lines of
the Scandinavian electricity market.
enovos trendwatch
The development of renewable energies is of key significance in
climate protection and the energy policy.
The development of renewable energies is controlled by EU Di-
rective 2009/28/EC. It provides Member States with binding targets for their share of energy from renewable sources in the gross
final consumption of energy. Twenty of the 27 EU countries have
introduced feed-in systems, i.e. priority feed-in for renewable energies in the grids with feed-in premiums. This also applies to Germany and Luxembourg. The quote model applies in France and
Belgium. This means that there is not a fixed price per kilowatt
hour set by the government for every type of energy, such as solar, wind or biomass, but only the requirement for every electricity
producer and certain large-scale consumers to obtain a minimum
quota of their electricity from a renewable source. The required
quota should increase annually in order to secure the further development of renewable energies.
47
48
THESIS 17: GOVERNMENT MEASURES
THE ENERGY TRANSITION MEASURES INTRODUCED BY THE
GOVERNMENT ARE SUFFICIENT.
11%
33%
Luxembourg
France
20%
8%
BELGIUM
GERMANY
THESIS 18: GOVERNMENT INCENTIVE POLICY
86%
78%
85%
TAX AND OTHER INVENTIVES ARE ESSENTIAL IF ENERGY
TRANSITION IS TO SUCCEED.
70%
Luxembourg
France
GERMANY
BELGIUM
enovos trendwatch
83% of the experts are of the opinion that their respective
governments’ measures for the implementation of the energy
transition are inadequate. The experts are agreed: the politicians have to act.
92% of the German experts, 89% of the French, 80% of the Belgian and 67% of the Luxembourg experts agree. Thus it is that
most experts believe that their respective governments are doing enough to facilitate energy transition in Luxembourg (33%).
For 80% of the experts, tax incentives represent an appropriate measure for promoting the energy transition. 86% of the
French, 85% of the Belgian, 78% of the German and 70% of the
Luxembourg experts believe that tax incentives are necessary.
The majority of experts are in favour of intervention by public
authorities, for instance with specific taxation measures, and
believe they are essential. Politics have to adopt a shaping role,
and create the legal framework to ensure that energy transition
is a success.
49
50
THESIS 19: STRICT GOVERNMENT REQUIREMENTS
EXTENSIVE GOVERNMENT REGULATION IS ESSENTIAL IN
ORDER TO ENSURE THE ECONOMICAL USE OF ENERGY RESOURCES.
63%
Luxembourg
57%
GERMANY
86%
85%
France
BELGIUM
THESIS 20: MARKETING CAMPAIGN
96%
89% 87% 93%
There is a need for a widely applied marketing
campaign by politicians and / or grid operators to
convince consumers of the advantages of smart
meters.
France
GERMANY
Luxembourg
BELGIUM
enovos trendwatch
70% of experts believe that “strict government regulations”
are essential. 86% of the French and 85% of the Belgian experts, 63% of the experts from Luxembourg and 57% of the
German experts call for “strict government regulations” in order to guarantee the economical use of energy resources.
The experts also call for stronger involvement by politicians
with regard to this issue. If their estimation is to be believed,
then there is little chance of a more careful use of energy resources on a voluntary basis.
91% of the experts agreed with the thesis "No informed consumers without marketing". 96% of the French, 93% of the
Belgian, 89% of the Luxembourg and 87% of the German experts are of this opinion.
Without a marketing campaign by politicians and/or the grid
operators, consumers will not know what the advantages of
intelligent meters are, and so will not be convinced that they
will help them to save energy and above all money.
51
Chapter B
smart grid −
smart meter
Intelligent grids
and meters
52
53
fünf
enovos trendwatch
und
neunzig
—
sechs
1.
und
neunzig
INTELLIGENT GRIDS AND METERS
AS THE BACKBONE OF ENERGY TRANSITION
Intelligent distribution grids are operated by information and communications technologies. In them, a large number of generation
plants communicate with the facilities of the electricity grids and
the devices that consume electricity. These activities are grouped
under the term "smart grid". Above all, “smart” stands for selfregulating electrical grids that maintain their stability, that is to say
their voltage and frequency, even under highly volatile feed-in or
feed-out changes. “Grid” refers to the entire grid areas, from obtaining the electricity to storing, transporting and distributing it to
the consumer, which have to remain permanently balanced within
the grid management.
Integration in the "smart grid" results in the optimisation of the
entire energy supply. Consumption becomes more homogeneous.
Electricity suppliers and distribution grid operators are improving
their planning. Energy sources with highly fluctuating yields are
being better integrated.
Energy supply is to be put on a new basis by the middle of the
century. Renewable energies will then become a supporting pillar in energy supply. The 158 experts gave their opinions of how
quickly the change would be completed in the future.
I
n order to achieve the energy-political goals, we need to
learn to think and act in systems. This includes a sensible
overall concept for the implementation of energy transition and greater agreement with our European neighbours.
Above all, though, we must synchronise the development
of renewable energies more closely with the necessary infrastructure.
Stephan Kohler
CHAIRMAN OF THE MANAGEMENT BOARD
OF THE DEUTSCHE ENERGIE-AGENTUR GMBH
(DENA)
BERLIN,
GERMANY
54
smart grid – smart meter | intelligent grids and meters
Luxembourg
Basic indicators
0.51 million
0.21 million
inhabitants
households
2,586 km2
territory
Energy figures
0.09 Mtoe
0.13 Mtoe
ENERGY PRODUCTION
ENERGY PRODUCTION
(2005)
(2010)
98.1%
98.0%
SHARE OF
SHARE OF
ENERGY IMPORTS
ENERGY IMPORTS
(DEPENDENCE ON IMPORTS)
(2005)
(2010)
2.8%
11%
SHARE OF RENEWABLE
SHARE OF RENEWABLE
ENERGIES IN GROSS
ENERGIES IN GROSS
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
(2010)
(2020)
Indicators smart grids / smart meters
500
300,000
9,883 km
smart meters
smart meters
ELECTRICITY GRID
(2011)
(2020)
(2011)
55
enovos trendwatch
GERMANY
Basic indicators
81.8 million
39.8 million
inhabitants
households
357,022 km2
territory
Energy figures
136.6 Mtoe
131.9 Mtoe
ENERGY PRODUCTION
ENERGY PRODUCTION
(2005)
(2010)
60.9%
60.6%
SHARE OF
SHARE OF
ENERGY IMPORTS
ENERGY IMPORTS
(2005)
(2010)
11%
18%
SHARE OF RENEWABLE
SHARE OF RENEWABLE
ENERGIES IN GROSS
ENERGIES IN GROSS
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
(2010)
(2020)
200,000
32,000,000
1,825,000 km
smart meters
smart meters
ELECTRICITY GRID
(2011)
(2020)
(2011)
56
france
Basic indicators
65.6 million
27.5 million
inhabitants
households
643,801 km2
territory
Energy figures
136 Mtoe
134.9 Mtoe
ENERGY PRODUCTION
ENERGY PRODUCTION
(2005)
(2010)
51.5%
49.8%
SHARE OF
SHARE OF
ENERGY IMPORTS
ENERGY IMPORTS
(2005)
(2010)
12.9%
23%
SHARE OF RENEWABLE
SHARE OF RENEWABLE
ENERGIES IN GROSS
ENERGIES IN GROSS
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
(2010)
(2020)
300,000
35,000,000
1,370,000 km
smart meters
smart meters
ELECTRICITY GRID
(2011)
(2020)
(2011)
57
enovos trendwatch
belgium
Basic indicators
10.5 million
4.65 million
inhabitants
households
30,528 km2
territory
Energy figures
13.8 Mtoe
16.5 Mtoe
ENERGY PRODUCTION
ENERGY PRODUCTION
(2005)
(2010)
79.4%
76.3%
SHARE OF
SHARE OF
ENERGY IMPORTS
ENERGY IMPORTS
(2005)
(2010)
5.2%
13%
SHARE OF RENEWABLE
SHARE OF RENEWABLE
ENERGIES IN GROSS
ENERGIES IN GROSS
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
(2010)
(2020)
4,200
2,500,000
201,549 km
smart meters
smart meters
ELECTRICITY GRID
(2011)
(2020)
(2011)
58
2.
RENEWABLE ENERGIES:
FROM CINDERELLA TO CENTRE STAGE
THESIS 1: EUROPEAN UNION TARGETS
THE TARGETS SET BY THE EUROPEAN UNION FOR INCREASING
THE SHARE OF RENEWABLE ENERGIES WILL BE ACHIEVED.
60% of the respondents believed that their countries would
achieve the targets set by the EU. The German experts were the
most optimistic with regard to the feasibility of achieving the requirements. 83% of them believed that EU requirements would be
implemented in their country by 2020. 58% of the Belgian experts
believed that their country would achieve the European Unit’s target.
67% of the experts in Luxembourg are of the opinion that the
share of renewable energies in their country would absolutely not
be increased to 11% by 2020.
61% of the French experts do not think that their country’s share
of 23% will be achieved by 2020. France’s national energy strategy
actually proposes a 27% increase in green electricity by 2020.
67%
60%
39%
30%
Yes
No
ALL COUNTRIES
Luxembourg
Differences due to rounding may occur.
Target 2020: 11%
Remainder for 100%: don't know
Actual 2010: 2.8%
59
enovos trendwatch
The Member States will all have different increases in the share of
renewable energies in the gross electricity consumption.
Luxembourg: In Luxembourg, the share of renewable energies
in the final consumption in 2010 was just 2.8%. A quota of 11% is
the target for 2020; this figure is the lowest of the four countries
in the analysis.
Germany: Germany wants to increase its 2010 share of 11% to 18%
by 2020.
France: Of the four analysed countries, France has the most ambitious target for the share of renewable energies in the final energy consumption of electricity, heat and fuels at 23%. In 2010 it
achieved a share of 13%.
Belgium: Belgium's share of renewable energy in 2010 was 5.2%,
and the figure is to increase to 13% by 2020.
83%
61%
58%
43%
39%
16%
GERMANY
FRANCE
BELGIUM
Target 2020: 18%
Target 2020: 23%
Target 2020: 13%
Actual 2010: 11%
Actual 2010: 13%
Actual 2010: 5%
60
THESIS 2:
ON THE WAY TO FULL SUPPLY FROM
RENEWABLE ENERGIES
50% OF THE ENERGY DEMAND WILL BE COVERED BY RENEWABLE ENERGIES.
A
RM
GE
3
NY
FRA
NC
E
18
G
52
3
33
19
7
8
20
65
8
M
LUXE
M
11
IU
LG
BO
UR
40
BE
33
68
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 0%
by 2020: 4%
probably never
by 2030: 26%
after 2030:
by 2030: 30%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 55%
probably never: 12%
The majority of experts believe that full supply from renewable
energies will not be achieved until after 2030. There has been
50-59%
a tremendous increase in the share of renewable energies in the
30-49%
gross final energy supply in recent years.
10-29%
55% of the experts expect the share of renewable energies in the
< 10%
final supply to be 50% for a period after 2030. 12% of the respond-
Remainder for
ents believe that a full supply by renewable energies will probably
100%: don't know
never be achieved.
Once again, the German experts are more optimistic than their
colleagues. 43% of them expect that by 2020, 50% of the supply
will be from renewable energies.
65% of the Belgian experts and 68% of their French counterparts
do not think the share of renewables can increase to 50% until
after 2030.
33% of Luxembourg experts do not think that renewables will ever
be able to provide a full supply.
61
enovos trendwatch
THESIS 3:
SUPPLY SECURITY DESPITE RENEWABLE ENERGIES
SECURE ENERGY SUPPLY CAN ALSO BE GUARANTEED IF THE
MAJORITY OF THE SUPPLY IS BY ALTERNATIVE ENERGIES.
A
RM
GE
6
NY
FRA
NC
E
4
14
8
30
26
7
18
10
7
4
3
20
28
38
5
M
LUXE
M
33
IU
LG
19
50
BE
BO
UR
G
41
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 6%
by 2020: 13%
by 2030: 27%
probably never
after 2030:
by 2030: 46%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 40%
probably never: 8%
46% of experts believe that the creation of secure energy sup-
plies in the event of a predominant dependence on alternative
40-49%
energies will be achieved by 2030; 40% believe it will happen
20-39%
later, and 8% think it will never happen. Renewable energies can
10-19%
only contribute in part to a “secure service”; in other words, they
< 10%
belong only to a small part of the service that will, with 99% prob-
Remainder for
ability, always be available. Photovoltaics cannot guarantee secure
100%: don't know
availability, and wind energy only to a low extent. Of all the alternative energies, water alone is the most feasible for secure supplies.
Half of the French experts believe that secure energy supplies in
the event of the predominant share of supplies being from renewable energies will not occur until after 2030. This opinion is shared
by 41% of the German and 38% of the Belgian experts.
62
THESIS 4:
WITHDRAWAL FROM NUCLEAR ENERGY
ALL NUCLEAR POWER STATIONS WILL BE DECOMMISSIONED BY 2020.
GE
Y
AN
RM
FRA
NC
E
64
3
29
30
22
48
2
4
3
10
50
13
25
M
51
U
LGI
18
36
BE
11
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 2%
by 2020: 17%
probably never
by 2030: 40%
after 2030
by 2030: 59%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 17%
probably never: 23%
64% of the French experts do not think it will be possible to
withdraw from nuclear energy. The decision regarding the desired
50-59%
energy mix lies with the Member States. Each country can choose
30-49%
the individual energy carriers’ share in the energy mix.
10-29%
The experts have different opinions with regard to the withdrawal
< 10%
from nuclear energy.
Remainder for
51% of the German and 50% of the Belgian respondents believe
100%: don't know
that withdrawal from nuclear energy will be completed after 2020,
and after 2030 at the latest.
36% of the French experts estimate that it will be completed in a
period after 2030. Furthermore, the lifetime of France’s nuclear
power plants has been extended to 40 years, which means that,
thanks to the existing nuclear and hydroelectric power stations,
the electricity mix in France will continue to produce the smallest
amount of greenhouse emissions in the world.
63
enovos trendwatch
THESIS 5: DEMOLITION AND DISPOSAL OF
NUCLEAR POWER STATIONS
THE DEMOLITION AND DISPOSAL OF NUCLEAR POWER STATIONS CAN BE FINANCED BY THE ENERGY SUPPLIERS.
33%
Luxembourg
29%
France
32%
GERMANY
35%
BELGIUM
61% of the experts questioned believe that the operators will not
be able to finance the demolition and disposal of the nuclear
power stations. One in three experts believes otherwise. 68% of
the French experts believe that the operators will not be able to
finance the demolition and disposal of the nuclear power stations.
64
3.
Upgrading the electricity grids
to smart and super grids
More and more local electricity producers with volatile production
profiles who are dependent on the transportation of large quantities of energy are coming onto the market. This calls for modernisation of the energy grids. Another challenge is the integration of
higher shares of renewable energies.
This requires the development of an intelligent control of pro-
duction and consumption using bi-directional data communication to operate between consumers, central and virtual energy
producers and various electricity storage facilities. This kind of
grid is called a "smart grid". It is more efficient and transparent
than conventional electricity grids, is cheaper to operate and more
reliable.
Only smart grids are able to feed in renewable energies economically and reduce the peak loads that are a risk to secure supply. These grids facilitate efficient load management of the electricity grid by offering flexibility in timing.
65
enovos trendwatch
S
mart grids are not only an important building block in energy tran-
sition, but also generate a tremendous
UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR
DR. MARION A.
WEISSENBERGER-EIBL
macroeconomic benefit – and not just
DIRECTOR OF THE FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE
when the information “update” for the
FOR SYSTEM AND INNOVATION RESEARCH ISI,
electricity grid is widely available, but
much earlier, during the construction
stage. In our study "Intelligent grids:
potentials and challenges" we established the future increases in efficiency and growth impulses that will be
achieved by having smarter electricity
grids in Germany. In the ten years between 2012 and 2022, the effects will
add up to at least € 64 billion. And once
smart grids, smart buildings, virtual
power plants and automated grids are
widely available, we expect an annual
overall economic benefit of € 10 billion
in Germany.
KARLSRUHE,
GERMANY
66
THESIS 6:
THE PENETRATION OF SMART GRIDS
THE RESPECTIVE COUNTRY HAS 100% SMART GRIDS.
NY
MA
R
GE
13
FRA
NC
E
4
G
44
25
43
LUXE
M
26
10
40
35
8
M
44
29
IU
LG
6
15
BE
BO
UR
37
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 0%
by 2020: 15%
probably never
by 2030: 40%
after 2030
by 2030: 55%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 34%
probably never: 8%
55% of the experts are of the opinion that smart grids will have
been introduced nationwide by 2030. 42% of the experts prefer
30-39%
the categories “after 2030” and “probably never” in this con-
20-29%
text. None of the experts believes that it will be possible to have
10-19%
a nationwide coverage of smart grids in their countries by 2015.
< 10%
The experts in France, Luxembourg and Belgium are more opti-
Remainder for
mistic than their German colleagues. 72% of the French experts,
100%: don't know
70% of the respondents from Luxembourg and 50% of the Belgian experts believe that smart grids will be in place nationwide
by 2030.
57% of the German experts believe that nationwide coverage will
not be available until after 2030, if ever.
67
enovos trendwatch
THESIS 7:
"SUPER GRID"
A "SUPER GRID" WILL BE SET UP AND USED TO COMPLEMENT REGIONAL PRODUCERS IN
EUROPE AND AFRICA SO THAT EUROPE’S ENERGY REQUIREMENTS WILL BE COMPLETELY
COVERED BY RENEWABLE ENERGIES – INCLUDING FROM AFRICA.
NY
MA
R
GE
37
FRA
NC
E
32
G
59
BO
UR
48
15
11
23
55
23
M
LUXE
M
11
IU
LG
22
14
BE
5
43
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 0%
by 2020: 4%
by 2030: 13%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 17%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 53%
probably never: 30%
Super grids will not be used until after 2030. Strong transporta-
tion grids called "super grids" are required in order to utilise the
40-49%
possible energy gains from climatic advantages in Europe and its
20-39%
neighbours to supply energy to the countries of this investigation.
10-19%
They are the higher solar radiation in southern Europe, stronger
< 10%
wind power off the northern European coasts and the privatelydriven and financed organisation Desertec, which is to feed elec-
Remainder for
tricity from renewable energy from Africa to Europe.
100%: don't know
53% of those interviewed believe that super grids will be used after 2030. 30% believe it will never be the case. 17% believe that,
by 2030, Europe’s entire supply of renewable energy will be from
super grids.
THESIS 8:
UNIFORM INFORMATION AND
COMMUNICATION STRUCTURE
A UNIFORM INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS STRUCTURE NEEDS TO BE INTRODUCED IN ORDER TO ESTABLISH
SMART GRIDS AND TO GUARANTEE SECURE ENERGY SUPPLIES.
96%
89%
78% 95%
France
Luxembourg
BELGIUM
GERMANY
87% of the experts believe that smart grids cannot work without a uniform information and communication technology (ICT)
structure. The development of a uniform ICT infrastructure for bidirectional data communication between consumers, central and
virtual producers and various electricity storage facilities is absolutely essential.
87% of the respondents agree with this statement. In France the
figure is 96% of the experts, and in Belgium 95%. To compare: 89%
of the experts in Luxembourg, and 78% of the experts in Germany.
68
69
enovos trendwatch
THESIS 9:
PLANNING AND INVESTMENT SECURITY
THANKS TO EUROPEAN DIRECTIVES AND LEGISLATION IN
THEIR OWN COUNTRIES, GRID OPERATORS HAVE SUFFICIENT
PLANNING AND INVESTMENT SECURITIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THEIR GRIDS.
NY
MA
R
GE
16
FRA
NC
E
11
G
5
25
44
19
37
19
11
7
10
40
23
13
3
M
7
43
IU
LG
BO
UR
14
BE
LUXE
M
4
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 13%
by 2020: 42%
by 2030: 19%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 74%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 7%
probably never: 9%
More than half of the experts believe that they will have sufficient
investment and planning security by 2020. European countries
30-39%
are agreed that the energy suppliers will sell their electricity grids
20-29%
and outsource grid operations to legally independent companies.
10-19%
Will this be enough of an incentive for the grid operators to then
< 10%
invest the required amounts in the politically desired development
Remainder for
of their grids?
100%: don't know
55% of the respondents believe that sufficient investment security
will be in place by 2020. 19% of the German experts believe that
this will actually be the case in 2015. 15% of the Belgian experts
believe that it will not be possible until after 2030.
70
THESIS 10:
APPROVAL PROCEDURES
THE APPROVAL PROCEDURES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GRIDS WILL BE ACCELERATED SO THAT APPROVALS ARE GIVEN WITHIN THREE MONTHS.
NY
MA
R
GE
41
FRA
NC
E
11
G
5
22
11
30
16
11
54
11
5
38
18
5
18
M
33
IU
LG
LUXE
M
4
BE
BO
UR
5
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 11%
by 2020: 33%
probably never
by 2030: 9%
after 2030
by 2030: 53%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 3%
probably never: 29%
Will there be an acceleration in the approval procedure? The
various experts are unable to agree for their countries. The de-
40-49%
velopment of renewable energies and of the grids should be coor-
20-39%
dinated. Speedy approvals are a prerequisite for this.
10-19%
11% of those interviewed believe that, by 2015, approvals for grid
< 10%
expansions will be granted within three months. A further 33% of
Remainder for
those interviewed do not believe this will be the case until 2020.
100%: don't know
Over half of the respondents in centralist France share this belief.
29% of those interviewed do not believe that the approvals procedure will never be shortened to three months. 41% of the respondents in Germany agreed.
71
enovos trendwatch
THESIS 11:
PUBLIC PARTICIPATION
TRANSPARENT PROCEDURES FOR PUBLIC PARTICIPATION
ARE REQUIRED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF INFTRASTRUCTURE MEASURES.
NY
MA
R
GE
18
FRA
NC
E
7
41
4
22
26
24
19
36
11
13
43
13
5
5
M
LUXE
M
21
IU
LG
4
11
BE
BO
UR
G
2
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 18%
by 2020: 38%
by 2030: 15%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 71%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 3%
probably never: 10%
Transparent procedures to involve citizens will be established
by 2020. Infrastructure projects not only fail as the result of long
30-39%
approvals procedures, but even more because of a lack of accept-
20-29%
ance by citizens. Under the new German Grid Expansion Accel-
10-19%
eration Act, grid operators are obliged to submit their expansion
< 10%
plans to the Federal Network Agency and the public.
Remainder for
65% of the German experts believe that transparent procedures
100%: don't know
for public participation will be introduced by 2020. This view is
shared by 56% of the Belgian and 47% of the French experts for
their countries. 25% of the experts from Luxembourg, France and
Belgium, respectively, do not yet have an opinion on this matter.
72
4.
How quickly will smart meters catch
on in private households?
The smart interconnection of energy production, distribution, storage and consumption via smart grids requires state-of-the-art information and communication technologies. Private households
are to be fitted with smart electricity meters – smart meters. The
grid operators are also to lay lots of grid connections for new electricity producers, some for the smallest feed-in quantities.
While industrial and other major companies have long been us-
ing smart meters, the introduction of electronic meters in households is a novelty.
The smart meter replaces the traditional mechanical meter
seen in houses and apartments. It is used to meter and to control
energy consumption. The basic version allows the remote reading of the current consumption via communication interfaces and
the display of the current and past electricity consumption as a
minimum. The next level of device will display the electricity costs
based on the current daily tariff, and remote switching on and off
of domestic appliances.
In the following, we asked the team of experts how quickly the
devices and their new functionalities would be accepted in private
households.
73
enovos trendwatch
THESIS 12:
PENETRATION OF SMART METERS
SMART METERS ARE BEING USED IN MORE THAN 90% OF PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS.
A
RM
E
G
3
NY
FRA
NC
E
4
G
22
21
24
33
44
11
7
15
50
30
5
M
4
50
IU
LG
BO
UR
51
BE
LUXE
M
7
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 3%
by 2020: 30%
by 2030: 42%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 75%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 18%
probably never: 3%
75% of the experts expect that by 2030, smart meters will be in
place in more than 90% of private households. 61% of the French
40-49%
experts expect that by 2020, smart meters will be in use in 90%
20-39%
of French households. 51% of the experts in Luxembourg share
10-19%
this opinion for their country. In both France and Luxembourg, the
< 10%
meters will be replaced free of charge.
Remainder for
A little over half of the German and Belgian experts predict that
100%: don't know
the threshold of 90% will be passed by 90% after 2020 and before
2030. 22% of the German experts and 30% of the Belgians believe
that this will not be the case until after 2030.
74
THESIS 13:
PROSUMERS
ONE IN FIVE PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS PRODUCES ITS OWN ENERGY AND FEEDS IT INTO THE GRID.
A
RM
GE
5
NY
FRA
NC
E
14
29
7
41
22
25
18
7
5
33
23
13
20
M
LUXE
M
25
54
IU
LG
11
14
BE
BO
UR
G
13
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 6%
by 2020: 28%
probably never
by 2030: 39%
after 2030
by 2030: 73%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 12%
probably never: 11%
By 2030, consumers will have become prosumers. Smart meters
will enable private households to feed energy into the grid them-
40-49%
selves and use self-produced energy for their own requirements.
20-39%
And so consumers will become "prosumers".
10-19%
39% of all experts believe that in the period 2020 to 2030, one in
< 10%
five households will have become a "prosumer". This figure was
Remainder for
54% for the German experts.
100%: don't know
25% of the French experts believe that this quota will be reached
around 2020, while a further 25% think it will be 2030.
41% of the experts from Luxembourg believe that one in five
households will feed its own electricity into the grid after 2020,
but before 2030.
38% of the Belgian experts believe that this quota will be met by
2020.
75
enovos trendwatch
THESIS 14:
ELECTRICITY EXCHANGE OPEN TO CONSUMERS
BECAUSE PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS HAVE BECOME SO IMPORTANT AS ENERGY SUPPLIERS, THE WILL BE GIVEN REAL-TIME
ACCESS TO THE ELECTRICITY EXCHANGE.
NY
MA
R
GE
33
FRA
NC
E
36
G
29
8
22
15
11
4
14
3
10
28
15
45
M
LUXE
M
36
IU
LG
BO
UR
30
BE
33
14
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 1%
by 2020: 10%
by 2030: 28%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 39%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 22%
probably never: 37%
Will the electricity exchange be opened for private households
in real time? The experts are divided on this. At the moment,
30-39%
energy trade on the electricity exchange is limited to only few
20-29%
players. However, it could be opened up in stages through to the
10-19%
consumer.
< 10%
39% of the respondents believe that this will happen by 2030. 50%
Remainder for
of the French experts believe this is so, and 38% of the Germans.
100%: don't know
22% of the experts do not think private households will appear on
the electricity exchange as dealers until after 2030.
37% of all experts do not think that the electricity exchange will
ever open up to private households in real time. Among the Belgian experts, this figure is an impressive 45%.
76
THESIS 15:
WARNING FUNCTION
CONSUMERS WILL RECEIVE WARNING SIGNALS FROM THEIR SMART METERS OR BY SMS
FROM THE GRID OPERATOR TELLING THEM TO SAVE ENERGY, FOR INSTANCE, IN ORDER
TO AVOID A BLACKOUT.
NY
MA
R
GE
18
FRA
NC
E
7
44
7
30
26
8
26
50
39
5
60
20
8
5
M
LUXE
M
24
IU
LG
4
4
BE
BO
UR
G
5
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 16%
by 2020: 46%
probably never
by 2030: 21%
after 2030
by 2030: 83%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 6%
probably never: 9%
Proactive advance warnings via smart meters will be implement-
ed by 2020. One of the key advantages of smart meters is in the
50-59%
direct communication between the electricity providers and their
30-49%
customers. We faced the experts with the scenario of a power fail-
10-29%
ure and the option of proactive information to the consumer via
< 10%
SMS.
Remainder for
62% of the respondents believe that these advance warnings will
100%: don't know
be technically feasible by 2020. Another 21% believe it will be
2030.
96% of the French experts envisage this scenario by 2030, and
half of them by 2015 to 2020. 65% of the Belgian experts believe
that it will occur by 2020.
A little over a quarter of the experts in Luxembourg think it is likely
by 2015 and to 2020, and some 30% by 2020 to 2030.
77
enovos trendwatch
THESIS 16:
TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS
SMART METERS ALSO MEASURE OTHER FORMS OF CONSUMPTION SUCH AS NATURAL GAS, WATER AND HEATING AS
STANDARD.
A
RM
GE
6
NY
FRA
NC
E
4
G
2
21
46
15
22
11
37
21
18
25
35
13
5
M
11
43
IU
LG
BO
UR
33
BE
LUXE
M
11
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 19%
by 2020: 36%
probably never
by 2030: 29%
after 2030
by 2030: 84%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 8%
probably never: 4%
The majority of experts believe that smart meters with expanded
functionalities will be introduced in their countries by 2020. Su-
30-39%
perior versions of the smart meter can also be used to remotely
20-29%
read the consumption of natural gas, water and heating.
10-19%
55% of respondents believe that smart meters with expanded
< 10%
functionalities will be in use nationally by 2020. 29% of the experts
Remainder for
believe that this will happen by 2030, and 12% that it will be after
100%: don't know
2030 or never.
64% of the experts from France, 59% of the experts from Luxembourg, 57% of the experts from Germany and 43% of the experts
from Belgium believe that the nationwide use of smart meters
with expanded functionalities will be achieved by 2020.
78
THESIS 17:
INTELLIGENT PRICING
AT LEAST 10% OF PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS ARE FITTED WITH
"Intelligent PRICING" METHODS.
A
RM
GE
6
NY
FRA
NC
E
4
11
51
11
19
22
57
8
21
26
5
55
25
8
8
M
LUXE
M
29
IU
LG
11
7
BE
BO
UR
G
6
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 13%
by 2020: 48%
probably never
by 2030: 23%
after 2030:
by 2030: 84%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 8%
probably never: 7%
Smart electricity pricing will be technically feasible by 2020.
Smart meters will also enable electricity providers to offer "dy-
40-49%
namic real-time processing". This refers to time-independent elec-
20-39%
tricity tariffs that are based on the time of day or day of the week.
10-19%
The electricity price will be calculated in real time for the consum-
< 10%
er. When demand is high, electricity will be more expensive, and
Remainder for
when there is a surplus of electricity the price will drop.
100%: don't know
61% of all experts believe that this functionality will be available by
2020. According to the experts from France, the relevant shares
will be 78%, the Belgian and German experts think it will be 60%,
and the Luxembourg experts say 48%.
A little more than one-fifth of the experts do not think these functionalities will be available until after 2020 but before 2030; 8%
think it will be after 2030, and 7% believe it will be "probably never”.
79
enovos trendwatch
THESIS 18:
SUPPORTING THE WILLINGNESS TO CHANGE
AT LEAST 10% OF PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS ARE ABLE TO OBTAIN
ELECTRICITY FROM VARIOUS ENERGY SUPPLIERS BASED ON
THE OFFERED PRICES.
A
RM
GE
8
NY
FRA
NC
E
4
29
37
15
15
37
29
6
15
18
43
18
18
23
M
LUXE
M
41
IU
LG
4
21
BE
BO
UR
G
8
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 8%
by 2020: 37%
by 2030: 29%
probably never
after 2030:
by 2030: 74%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 14%
probably never: 10%
Smart electricity pricing based on the time of day will be in place
by 2020. Consumers will be able to change their energy supplier
30-39%
on the basis of their prices and the time of day.
20-29%
45% of all experts believe that this functionality will be available by
10-19%
2020. 43% of the Belgian experts are of this opinion.
< 10%
A further 29% of the experts believe that smart electricity pricing
Remainder for
will be the reality by 2030. 10% do not think that smart electricity
100%: don't know
pricing will ever happen.
18% of the French experts, 15% of the Luxembourg, but only 6%
of the German experts expect this option to be available by 2015.
80
THESIS 19:
AUTOMATIC SWITCHING ON AND OFF
AT LEAST 50% OF PRIVATE CONSUMERS ALLOW THEIR ENERGY SUPPLIER TO SWITCH DOMESTIC APPLIANCES ON AND OFF
IN ORDER TO LOWER ENERGY COSTS.
NY
MA
R
GE
30
FRA
NC
E
14
32
16
7
33
37
39
5
11
5
23
40
15
18
M
LUXE
M
27
IU
LG
11
4
BE
BO
UR
G
22
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 5%
by 2020: 25%
probably never
by 2030: 32%
after 2030:
by 2030: 62%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 15%
probably never: 21%
"Direct load control" will take a while to become effective. Elec-
tricity suppliers can use smart meters to access various house-
30-39%
hold appliances with the relevant features to switch them off at
20-29%
expensive peak load times. However, “direct load control” is only
10-19%
suitable for household appliances that can be switched off tem-
< 10%
porarily. Furthermore, the household must allow remote access to
Remainder for
its appliances, and this is not something that everyone will want.
100%: don't know
One quarter of the respondents believe that the above scenario
will become the reality between 2015 and 2020. 39% of the French
and 37% of the Luxembourg experts believe it will probably come
true between 2015 and 2020. Only 15% of the experts believe that
direct load control will become effective after 2030.
21% of the experts in all countries and 30% of the German experts
do not believe that remote control of energy consumption will
ever really happen.
81
enovos trendwatch
THESIS 20:
"ENERGY APP"
AT LEAST 50% OF PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS USE A MOBILE DEVICE, AN "ENERGY APP", TO MONITOR, CONTROL AND OPTIMISE THEIR ENERGY CONSUMPTION.
A
RM
GE
11
NY
FRA
NC
E
4
32
7
33
30
54
5
25
7
8
25
50
13
5
M
LUXE
M
18
IU
LG
15
43
BE
BO
UR
G
10
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 10%
by 2020: 34%
by 2030: 39%
probably never
after 2030:
by 2030: 83%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 8%
probably never: 9%
Using a smart phone to control energy consumption is only slow-
ly coming into use. Energy suppliers can provide consumers who
40-49%
have a smartphone with an “energy app” to support them with
20-39%
their personal energy management.
10-19%
39% of all experts believe that this is likely to happen between
< 10%
2020 and 2030 (50% of the Belgian experts and 43% of the Ger-
Remainder for
mans).
100%: don't know
One-quarter of the French experts believe that an “energy app”
will be used to monitor energy consumption by 2015, and over half
believe it will be by 2020. None of the French experts believes this
scenario will come true after 2030.
9% of the experts do not believe that there will ever be an energy
app. In Luxembourg, 15% of the experts share this belief.
82
THESIS 21: FREE METER REPLACEMENT
Smart meters will only start to be widely used in
private households if there is no charge for re-
86%
placing the old meters.
78%
Luxembourg
86%
65%
France
GERMANY
BELGIUM
THESIS 22: PRICING
SMART METER SERVICES ARE SO ATTRACTIVE THAT
CONSUMERS ARE PREPARED TO PAY FOR THEM.
7%
33%
Luxembourg
France
14%
33%
BELGIUM
GERMANY
THESIS 23: REDUCED ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Energy consumption in private households is lower if smart meters are used.
56%
70%
60%
GERMANY
Luxembourg
BELGIUM
75%
France
enovos trendwatch
79% of the experts believe that the meters needs to be replaced free of charge so they will be used nationwide. The
mechanical meters will have to be replaced by the new smart
basic meters free of charge if they are to be used nationwide.
This opinion is shared by 79% of all the experts (86% of the German and French experts, 78% of experts from Luxembourg).
Only 65% of the Belgian experts agreed.
Smart meter services are not appealing enough to consumers
to generate significant turnovers. Smart meters were developed in order to facilitate remote reading. They give customers
significant advantages in the analysis of their energy data, better knowledge of their usage habits and the option to instantly
identify when an appliance is consuming too much electricity.
Only 21% of the respondents believe that smart meter services
are attractive enough for users to be prepared to pay for them.
93% of the French and 86% of the German experts categorically disagree with this.
Nor are the majority of experts in Belgium and Luxembourg of
the opinion that smart meter services are sufficiently attractive,
even though the Luxembourg and Belgian experts achieve the
highest quota in these countries at 33%.
63% of experts say: Yes, smart meters will help to reduce energy consumption. 75% of the French experts and 70% of the
experts from Luxembourg are convinced that using smart meters will help to reduce electricity consumption.
The Belgian (60%) and German (56%) experts generally share
this thesis.
83
84
5.
How smart are smart meters?
THE MAIN DRIVERS FOR SMART METERS IN
old meters with smart meters. This opinion
PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS
is shared by 93% of the respondents in Lux-
The experts believe that consumer acceptance
embourg, 84% of the German and 82% of the
of smart meters will be defined primarily by
French experts, and 73% of the experts in Bel-
the reduction in energy consumption and the
gium.
(associated) reduction in energy costs. Charg-
ing for the installation of smart meters would
perts believe that private consumers would be
be a significant barrier to their introduction.
prepared to pay for a smart meter. Only 14%
How many experts believe that certain driv-
of the German and 7% of the French experts
ers for the introduction of smart meters in pri-
share this view.
vate households are "very important" and "im-
LEGAL REQUIREMENTS: 79% of all experts
portant"? The following addresses this issue.
believe that legal requirements for the nation-
33% of the Belgian and Luxembourg ex-
wide introduction of smart meters are very
REDUCTION IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION:
important or important. However, the shares
92% of the experts believe that reducing en-
for the corresponding estimates are 84% for
ergy consumption and energy costs is an im-
the German experts, 82% for the French, 78%
portant or very important driver in achieving
for the Belgian and 67% for the Luxembourg
sufficient acceptance by the consumers.
experts.
ALL OF THE EXPERTS from Luxembourg
INDIVIDUAL CONTROL OF THE ENERGY
believe that reducing energy con-
MIX: Only 51% of the experts believe that an
sumption is a significant advantage
individual control of the energy mix is impor-
of smart meters. This opinion is shared by
tant. However, there is a great bandwidth of
96% of the French experts, 93% of the Belgian
opinions. 89% of the experts in Luxembourg,
and 87% of the German experts.
64% of the French experts, but only 38% of
REDUCTION IN ENERGY COSTS: The French
the German and Belgian experts believe that
experts all believe that reducing energy costs
individual control of the energy mix is an im-
is an important advantage of smart meters.
portant driver.
This view is shared by 93% of the Belgian and
Luxembourg experts and 89% of the German
experts.
INDIVIDUAL CONTROL OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION: 85% of respondents believe that
the individual control of the energy consumption is very important or important for the introduction of smart meters in private households to succeed. This thesis is shared by 93%
of the French and Luxembourg experts. 81% of
the German and 80% of the Belgian respondents are also of this opinion.
FREE REPLACEMENT OF OLD METERS: 82%
of the respondents believe it is important that
there should be no charge for replacing the
85
enovos trendwatch
LUXEMBOURG
GERMANY
france
belgium
100%
87%
96%
93%
92%
REDUCTION IN
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
92%
REDUCTION IN
ENERGY COSTS
93%
89%
100%
93%
85%
INDIVIDUAL CONTROL
OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION
93%
81%
93%
80%
82%
FREE REPLACEMENT
OF OLD METERS WITH
NEW SMART METERS
93%
83%
82%
73%
79%
LEGAL REGULATIONS FOR A
NATIONWIDE INTRODUCTION OF
SMART METERS
67%
84%
82%
78%
INDIVIDUAL CONTROL
OF THE ENERGY MIX
89%
38%
64%
38%
51%
All countries
Only the responses in the categories "very important" and "important"
86
6.
THE DILEMMA OF SMART METER EXPANSION
THE MAIN BARRIERS FOR SMART METERS
LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN GUARANTEEING
IN PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS
DATA PRIVACY: Would there be sufficient data
The two most important barriers preventing
protection if details of individual consump-
the nationwide introduction of smart meters
tions were passed on to the energy suppliers?
are the high monthly basic charges and the
66% of the respondents believe that consum-
high one-off procurement costs (if there is a
ers would not trust any reassurances that were
charge for replacing the meters). Questions of
given in this respect. 73% of the German ex-
data privacy and privacy policies are not quite
perts, 71% of French experts, 60% of the Bel-
so significant. However, at the moment con-
gian experts, but only 56% of the Luxembourg
sumers do not believe that installing a smart
experts believe this is so.
meter in their households would bring them
INSUFFICIENT GUARANTEE OF DATA SE-
any particular benefits.
CURITY: 66% of the respondents believe that
How many experts believe that unpopular
there would not be sufficient data security in
figures are barriers that would "impede" or
the transmission of individual consumption
"very much impede" the nationwide introduc-
details. This opinion is shared by 75% of the
tion of smart meters? The following addresses
German experts, 65% of the Belgians and 64%
this issue.
of the French experts. Half of the Luxembourg
experts (52%) feared that energy suppliers
MONTHLY BASIC CHARGE TOO HIGH: 89%
would not be able to sufficiently guarantee
of the respondents estimate that the month-
data security.
ly basic charge for a smart meter will be too
RESTRICTION OF ENERGY SUPPLY: If it were
high. The responses from the experts in all the
possible to switch household appliances on
countries were almost identical.
and off remotely, would this lead to restric-
PROCUREMENT COSTS TOO HIGH: 87% be-
tions in the households’ electricity supplies?
lieve that the one-off procurement costs for
This is feared by 70% of the Belgian experts,
smart meters (unless replacing them is free of
64% of the French experts and 52% of the ex-
charge) are too high. 91% of the German, 86%
perts in Luxembourg, but only by 29% of the
of the French, 85% of the Belgian and 82% of
German respondents. Overall, roughly half of
the Luxembourg experts are of this opinion.
the experts feared this (49%).
LITTLE SAVINGS POTENTIAL FOR CONSUMPTION: 67% of the respondents believe that
consumers’ potential for savings are too low.
75% of the French experts, 70% of the German
and 68% of the Belgian experts do not think
that investing in new meters is worthwhile.
However, only 52% of the experts in Luxembourg shared this opinion.
87
enovos trendwatch
LUXEMBOURG
GERMANY
france
belgium
89%
MONTHLY BASIC
CHARGE FOR SMART
METER TOO HIGH
89%
89%
89%
88%
87%
PROCUREMENT
COSTS TOO HIGH
82%
91%
86%
85%
67%
POTENTIAL FOR SAVINGS
IN ENERGY OR ELECTRICITY
CONSUMPTION TOO LOW
52%
70%
75%
68%
67%
LACK OF CONFIDENCE
ON THE PART OF THE CONSUMER
IN THE GUARANTEE OF
DATA PRIVACY ON THE PART OF
THE ENERGY SUPPLIERS
56%
73%
71%
60%
66%
INSUFFICIENT
GUARANTEE OF DATA
SECURITY
52%
75%
64%
65%
49%
RESTRICTIONS IN
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY
52%
29%
64%
70%
All countries
Only the responses in the categories
"very much impedes" and "impedes"
smart home – smart building | energy efficiency in buildings
chapter c
smart home −
smart building
Energy efficiency
in buildings
88
enovos trendwatch
1.
End of the energy guzzlers
in sight?
If the energy turnaround is to succeed, energy efficiency in particular must be significantly improved. Every kilowatt hour saved
means one less to produce in gas or coal-fired power plants or in
wind or solar parks. It does not need to be sent along overloaded
grids, some of which have not yet been built. Nor does it have to
be paid for through the levy on feed-in payments. There is great
potential for increasing energy efficiency both in private households and in trade, industry and commerce.
Buildings are major energy consumers. They use over 40% of
the energy consumed worldwide, of which 85% goes to space
heating and hot water. 30% of all operating costs for buildings fall
to expenditure on energy. This means that heat supply accounts
for a higher proportion of energy consumption than industrial
production and the transport sector. Buildings also cause a fifth of
all CO2 emissions. It is vital to curb energy consumption in buildings by energy-saving renovation of existing buildings and energy
efficient new buildings.
89
90
The targets are ambitious: according to the 2010 EU Buildings
Directive, a carbon neutral building stock should be achieved by
2050 and as early as the end of 2020 all new buildings should be
what is known as "low energy buildings". These are buildings in
which the almost zero energy demand is met to a major degree by
renewable energies. The member countries have specified targets
at a national level and supplemented these with programmes of
measures.
In private houses it is mainly existing buildings which require
energy-saving renovation. In functional buildings the emphasis is
on the use (or occupation) of large areas and the intelligent control
of consumption. The European Energy Efficiency Directive entered
into force in December 2012. From 2014 this provides for central
governments (excluding government buildings belonging to regions and districts) having an annual renovation rate of its public buildings of 3% of the total floor area of heated and/or cooled
buildings. In addition, only products and services with high energy
efficiency may be procured. At a national level it is easy to regulate
who pays the costs of energy-saving renovations, for example the
tenant or landlord.
A
s architects and engineering consultants we are involved with the design of our environment and our
buildings on a daily basis, always with a long timeframe
and forward planning which are prerequisites for its efficient execution. This means that we must always understand the importance of new developments. At the same
time we try to develop creative solutions under our obligation to the general public.
91
enovos trendwatch
Bob Strotz
President Ordre des Architectes
et des Ingénieurs-Conseils (OAI),
Luxembourg
The study shows real optimism for the implementation
of the EU Building Directives in Luxembourg by 2020.
Optimism comes from optimum, i.e. from confidence,
expert knowledge and systematic implementation. This
requires not only vision but also courage to implement it
and the willingness on the part of the public to develop
our future together.
In the following chapter we have asked 115 experts how realistic
they believe the EU Building Directive objectives and the targeted
increase in the proportion of renewable energies in the consumption of heating and cooling to be from their country's perspective.
Further, we have assessed how effective the measures for greater
use of renewable energies in the energy supply to buildings prove
to be.
Luxembourg
20
1
50
2.6%
2.3%
percentage of energy
costs in consumer
costs in consumer
spending (2007)
spending (2011)
0.278 million
electricity customers
(2011)
€ 16.45
€ 16.60
household electricity
prices
prices
consuming
consuming
> 2,500 KWh < 5,000 KWh
> 2,500 KWh < 5,000 KWh
€/ 100 KWh (incl. taxes)
(2007)
(2011)
€ 10.35
€ 10.57
industrial electricity
prices
prices
consuming
consuming
> 500 MWh < 2,000 mwh
> 500 MWh < 2,000 mwh
(2007)
(2011)
5,000
4,000
new-build housing
new-build housing
total
total
in newly constructed
residential buildings
(2007)
(2011)
70%
44.5%
and non-residential
and non-residential
buildings renovation
percentage (2007)
percentage (2011)
92
93
enovos trendwatch
germany
20
1
50
4.3%
4.5%
costs in consumer
costs in consumer
spending (2007)
spending (2011)
47.7 million
(2011)
€ 21.05
€ 25.31
prices
prices
consuming
consuming
> 2,500 KWh < 5,000 KWh
> 2,500 KWh < 5,000 KWh
(2007)
(2011)
€ 13.53
€ 16.62
prices
prices
consuming
consuming
> 500 MWh < 2,000 mwh
> 500 MWh < 2,000 mwh
(2007)
(2011)
185,300
161,200
new-build housing
new-build housing
total
total
(2007)
(2011)
67.8%
69.8%
and non-residential
and non-residential
percentage (2007)
percentage (2011)
france
20
1
50
3.5%
3.6%
costs in consumer
costs in consumer
spending (2007)
spending (2011)
37 million
(2011)
€ 12.22
€ 14.23
prices
prices
consuming
consuming
> 2,500 KWh < 5,000 KWh
> 2,500 KWh < 5,000 KWh
(2007)
(2011)
€ 6.86
€ 8.37
prices
prices
consuming
consuming
> 500 MWh < 2,000 mwh
> 500 MWh < 2,000 mwh
(2007)
(2011)
432,000
336,000
new-build housing
new-build housing
total
total
(2007)
(2011)
49.4%
54%
and non-residential
and non-residential
percentage (2007)
percentage (2011)
94
95
enovos trendwatch
belgium
20
1
50
4.3%
5.4%
costs in consumer
costs in consumer
spending (2007)
spending (2011)
5.55 million
(2011)
€ 16.83
€ 21.19
prices
prices
consuming
consuming
> 2,500 KWh < 5,000 KWh
> 2,500 KWh < 5,000 KWh
(2007)
(2011)
€ 11.49
€ 13.81
prices
prices
consuming
consuming
> 500 MWh < 2,000 mwh
> 500 MWh < 2,000 mwh
(2007)
(2011)
56,600
46,400
new building flats
new building flats
total
total
(2007)
(2011)
44.4%
50.2%
and non-residential
and non-residential
percentage (2007)
percentage (2011)
96
Thesis 1:
EU Buildings Directive
By the end of 2020 all new buildings will be carbon
neutral, i.e. "nearly zero-energy buildings" or "passive houses".
At least half the experts believe that the EU Building Directive
will be implemented on time. The EU Building Directive stipulates
that, from the end of 2020, all new buildings must be "nearly zero-energy buildings". Nearly zero-energy buildings are buildings
which are extremely energy efficient. The almost zero energy demand should be met primarily from renewable energies.
54%
62%
44%
32%
Yes
No
ALL COUNTRIES
Luxembourg
97
enovos trendwatch
The Luxembourg experts are the most optimistic about achieving
this target. 62% of those polled envisage that this will be implemented in their country by 2020.
Whilst the experts in France are divided as to whether this can be
achieved, the majority of Belgian experts do not expect that all
new buildings there will be nearly zero-energy buildings or passive houses by 2020. In contrast, 54% of the Germans are confident that the EU Building Directive targets will be reached.
54%
GERMANY
47%
50%
50%
FRANCE
46%
54%
BELGIUM
98
Thesis 2:
Percentage of renewable energies
in heating and cooling consumption
The targets set by the EU member countries on the
desired level of increase in the proportion of renewable energies on the heating market will be
achieved.
Over half the experts believe that their country's government
will meet the requirements for the heating market which they
have set themselves. In their national action plans, the national
governments are aiming for ambitious targets to increase the percentage of renewable energies in the heating and cooling supplies.
Luxembourg, for example, is aiming for an increase in the percentage from 4% in 2009 to 8.5% by 2020. Half of those polled are also
convinced that this can be achieved.
58%
39%
50%
41%
Yes
No
ALL COUNTRIES
Luxembourg
Target 2020: 8.5%
Actual 2009: 4%
99
enovos trendwatch
Whilst three quarters of the Germans are convinced that a 15.5%
share can be achieved by 2020, in France two thirds of experts
do not believe that the French supply percentage of 33% can be
reached by 2020. This is all the more surprising as, even in 2009,
France had the highest penetration rate of renewable energies of
the four countries with 16%.
According to the French experts, the most important reasons for
this are the negative effects of the financial crisis, the inadequate
incentive policy and the legal provisions which were not applied
stringently enough.
72%
67%
28%
58%
42%
33%
GERMANY
FRANCE
BELGIUM
Target 2020: 15.5%
Target 2020: 33%
Target 2020: 11.9%
Actual 2009: 8%
Actual 2009: 16%
Actual 2009: 5%
100
Thesis 3:
Renewable energies in the supply to buildings
Which of the following measures are best suited to increasing the
percentage of renewable energies in the energy supply to buildings?
luxembourg
germany
france
belgium
90%
modernisation incentives
94%
95%
83%
77%
83%
obligation to use
renewables –
new buildings
88%
75%
83%
88%
70%
investment
apportionment
68%
86%
58%
54%
68%
obligation to use
renewables –
existing buildings
77%
72%
42%
62%
61%
rent reduction entitlement
71%
63%
42 %
54%
All countries
Only data for the categories "very suitable" and "suitable"
enovos trendwatch
90% of all the experts consulted consider the modernisation incentives for energy-saving renovation
of all existing buildings through state subsidy programmes to be a suitable measure to increase the
percentage of renewable energies in the energy
supply to buildings.
The German (95%) and Luxembourg experts (94%) are particularly in agreement with this. The "suitable measures" are those which
the respondents judged to be "very suitable" or "suitable". One in
two Luxembourg experts and 37% of the German ones consider
the modernisation incentives to be "very suitable".
83% of all those polled argue for a legally binding obligation
to use renewable energies in existing buildings. Luxembourg and
Belgium lead the field in this with 88% each. 47% of the Luxembourg experts and 27% of the Belgian ones consider that this
measure is "very suitable" for raising the percentage of renewable
energies in the energy supply to buildings.
With 70% of all the respondents' votes, the apportionment of
investments in energy-saving renovation ranks third after efficiency. Whilst 86% of the German experts see this as a good measure,
only 54% of the Belgians agree with it. 24% of the Luxembourg
experts actually rate this measure as "very suitable".
68% of all experts view the fundamental requirement of in-
tegrating renewable energies into the existing building stock
through essential renovation measures as a suitable means of
raising the proportion used in these buildings. 77% of the Luxembourg experts but only 42% of the French ones believe this to be
the case.
The least suitable measure is the rent reduction entitlement.
61% of all experts nevertheless showed interested in this measure
and as many as 71% of the Luxembourg ones. However, 42% of
French experts argued against a rent reduction entitlement for
the tenant.
101
102
2.
The buildings of the future will be
self-supplying
With the decentralisation of the energy supply system, decentralised producers, for example operators of photovoltaic installations, will feed electricity into the public grid. Buildings will generate more electricity than they themselves use. Might they also
be able to store the excess energy?
Initial solutions for this are already available. One of the many
current European projects will be described below. In the centre
of Berlin from spring 2012 to 2013, a 130 square metre "energy
efficiency house plus" will be home to a family of four and will
be thoroughly tested as a laboratory for energy management in
buildings. The house comes with an electric car and a charging
station. The model house generates more electricity than it consumes and, what is more, all from renewable sources. Some of the
excess is fed into the public grid. The rest meets the household's
requirements for electromobility. The house is suitable for the elderly and fitted with accessible assistance systems which enable
an independent life in old age.
S
tugalux have built almost exclusively low energy and
passive houses for several years and three years ago
commissioned the first multiple dwelling unit with 44
flats to passive house standard in Luxembourg. This has
now grown to over 200 flats.
There is a great deal of interest amongst our customers
for energy-conscious construction, development is rapid
and we are getting ready for the zero energy house. We
constantly strive to integrate new kinds of technologies
and materials into our housing designs without this leading to significantly higher costs for the customer.
Fernand Hemmen
CEO Stugalux Construction S.A.,
luxembourg
After all, energy consumption for hot water and heating
in the flats has shrunk by more than half over the last ten
years.
enovos trendwatch
Combined heat and power plants can supply housing developments of two hundred houses and more and use batteries for
intermediate storage. The electricity generated now no longer
needs to be fed into the public grid. Rather, it can be used directly
for supplying households and functional buildings in the vicinity
of the building. The battery bank compensates for fluctuations in
the demand and keeps the electricity production and consumption of a region in balance. This enables regions to supply themselves with energy through their own efforts without having
to use the public grid and to make themselves independent of
the energy market. The first regions have already opted for a
decentralised grid.
Besides electricity storage, the storage of heat will play a
key role in the future. Biogas plants and combined heat and
power plants produce not only power but heat as well. New
technologies are set to change this: they will enable the heat to
be stored in the minimum of space and over longer periods of
time without losses and to be used when required.
We asked the experts when buildings for electricity pro-
duction and storage would be widely available.
103
104
Thesis 4:
Plus energy house
One in five buildings will produce more energy than
it uses and deliver this to the grid (related to the
annual average).
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
16
CE
17
19
LUXE
MB
9
21
44
18
8
31
42
23
4
M
6
33
IU
LG
OU
56
BE
RG
42
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 0%
by 2020: 17%
by 2030: 47%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 64%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 23%
probably never: 10%
64% of all those polled hold the view that by 2030 one house in
≥ 50% of experts
five will be a plus energy house. Only 17% envisage this happen-
40-49%
ing by 2020 and no one anticipates this in the short term by 2015.
20-39%
In future, well insulated buildings will be able to generate and
10-19%
store more heat than they use.
< 10%
Top of the list are the Belgians: one in three thinks this will be pos-
Remainder for
sible as early as 2020. In comparison, one in two Germans (56%),
100%: don't know
42% of the Belgian experts and 44% of the Luxembourg ones think
this will only happen between 2020 and 2030.
The French are more cautious: 42% only anticipate this scenario at
a later date, i.e. after 2030 and 17% cannot imagine it happening
at all.
105
enovos trendwatch
Thesis 5:
Energy storage
It will be technically possible for buildings to
store excess energy for longer periods.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
5
CE
8
23
LUXE
MB
30
38
24
18
17
12
3
4
23
42
27
4
M
12
17
IU
LG
OU
30
BE
RG
58
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 6%
by 2020: 24%
by 2030: 30%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 60%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 32%
probably never: 7%
60% of experts anticipate the breakthrough of new technologies
≥ 50% of experts
for storing excess energy in buildings by 2030 at the latest. The
40-49%
technological capacity to be able to store excess energy could
20-39%
increase the energy efficiency of buildings by several factors.
10-19%
Germany is the most optimistic with 72%, followed by Belgium
< 10%
with 69%. Luxembourg and France in particular are rather more
Remainder for
cautious. In these countries only 45% and 34% respectively be-
100%: don't know
lieve in a breakthrough by 2030.
106
Thesis 6:
Energy management
Intelligent control systems ensure that the customers first use the electricity they have generated
themselves and only then buy the energy from the
public grid.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
2
CE
8
2
LUXE
MB
44
12
35
24
33
15
50
8
19
23
39
8
8
M
6
25
IU
LG
OU
19
BE
RG
8
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 22%
by 2020: 34%
by 2030: 29%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 85%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 7%
probably never: 5%
One expert in five expects the breakthrough of intelligent
≥ 50% of experts
control systems for energy management in buildings by 2015.
40-49%
Households which themselves produce power want to ensure that
20-39%
they use this electricity first and only then buy energy from the
10-19%
public grid.
< 10%
96% of the German experts questioned assume that this option
Remainder for
can be guaranteed by 2030 and one in three believe it will happen
100%: don't know
as early as 2015.
Although around 15% of the Luxembourg experts expect it to be
implemented by 2015, when compared to the other countries
rather fewer (74%) expect it to be implemented by 2030. 12% can
only imagine this happening after 2030.
In both France and Belgium over 80% believe in intelligent control
systems for energy management in buildings by 2030. Over half
the French see this happening as early as 2020.
enovos trendwatch
3.
Functional buildings will become
smart buildings and will be able
to do more than increase energy
efficiency
Functional buildings are, for example, offices, administration
buildings, hotels, schools, swimming pools and accommodation
for the elderly.
It is well worthwhile running functional buildings efficiently
in terms of energy Case study Germany: according to calculations made by dena, industrial enterprises can reduce their
energy costs by 4.4 billion euros by 2020 if they optimise energy-consuming systems and introduce measures to deal with
process heat. The service sector including the public sector would
save as much as 5.5 billion euros.
The principal measures required include renovation of the ex-
isting building stock, highly energy-efficient buildings, energy-efficient lighting and building technology and better energy management.
The functional buildings of the future will have energy-con-
serving architecture, a well insulated external envelope and highly efficient equipment. Heating, ventilation, shading and lighting
will be activated and controlled by an intelligent building automation system using sensors and time switches as the specific time
of day demands.
Smart buildings will have a connection to external networks
such as the Internet. This will enable remote control of the devices in smart buildings.
The internal and external networks will make it possible to link
energy production and consumption. This will enable significant
reductions in the energy consumption and costs and therefore the
carbon dioxide emissions of functional buildings.
The following chapter focuses on how quickly and to what
degree intelligent solutions will be adopted in functional buildings.
107
108
Thesis 7:
Reducing energy consumption in
functional buildings
The energy consumption in existing functional
buildings will have dropped by 30% in comparison
with 2010 due to energy-saving renovations.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
2
CE
17
9
LUXE
MB
40
21
50
21
25
2
4
27
54
15
M
3
50
IU
LG
OU
47
BE
RG
8
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 2%
by 2020: 30%
by 2030: 50%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 82%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 14%
probably never: 4%
82% of the experts anticipate a 30% reduction in energy con-
≥ 50% of experts
sumption in existing functional buildings by 2030. The German
40-49%
experts are the most optimistic about the functional buildings
20-39%
i.e. offices and commercial buildings. 89% of those polled antici-
10-19%
pate that 30% of the former energy consumption can be saved by
< 10%
2030, 42% believe this is even possible by 2020.
Remainder for
85% of the Belgian experts are also confident of this being imple-
100%: don't know
mented by 2030, 31% as early as 2020.
The Luxembourg experts are rather more cautious. One in five
only expects a significant reduction in energy consumption in
functional buildings after 2030.
109
enovos trendwatch
Thesis 8:
Building automation
Building automation controls all heating, cooling,
shading, lighting and other electronic devices in
accordance with the daily routine in all functional
buildings.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
7
CE
17
30
LUXE
MB
23
27
35
21
17
15
42
35
8
M
9
50
IU
LG
OU
40
BE
RG
17
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 0%
by 2020: 20%
by 2030: 40%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 60%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 29%
probably never: 9%
60% of experts anticipate that all functional buildings will be
≥ 50% of experts
completely controlled by building automation by 2030. Eve-
40-49%
rything is regulated automatically and precisely tailored to the
20-39%
workplace if necessary: heating, cooling, dehumidification, venti-
10-19%
lation, shading and lighting. None of the experts consulted could
< 10%
imagine that this would be implemented across the board by 2015.
Remainder for
A fifth expect that coverage will be achieved by 2020, 40% antici-
100%: don't know
pate this in the period from 2020 to 2030 and 29% only in subsequent years.
Half the French experts believe that comprehensive use of building automation will occur in the period from 2020 to 2030.
110
Thesis 9:
Supply lines
50% of the supply lines for electricity, water, natural gas and heating in functional buildings will be
monitored and automatically controlled by intelligent grids.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
7
CE
33
29
35
21
3
17
8
19
46
19
8
M
LUXE
MB
26
3
50
IU
LG
OU
51
BE
RG
16
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 3%
by 2020: 22%
by 2030: 45%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 70%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 19%
probably never: 9%
70% of experts believe that 50% of functional buildings will be
≥ 50% of experts
monitored and controlled by intelligent grids by 2030. Only 3%
40-49%
of all experts anticipate this happening in the short term i.e. by
20-39%
2015, more than 20% by 2020 and 45% in the period from 2020
10-19%
to 2030.
< 10%
Whilst Germany (77%) and Belgium (73%) are very optimistic
Remainder for
about this by 2030, in France one in three experts believe that it
100%: don't know
will never happen, not even after 2030.
Almost one in three Luxembourg experts also take the monitoring of supply lines by intelligent grids for granted only after
2030, but 59% by 2030.
111
enovos trendwatch
4.
The private house, the smart home of the future –
lower energy consumption, greater convenience
Investments to increase energy efficiency for
trolled individually for each room, this saves as
private households pay off similarly. Accord-
much energy as insulation. Setting the room
ing to calculations by dena, smart home solu-
temperature adjustment at a later point costs
tions will save around 20% of energy for heat-
500 euros while insulating the outside walls
ing and 6% of energy for electricity supply by
costs on average 13,000 euros.
2020. In financial terms this amounts to eleven
billion euros.
Efficiency Magazine, French households could
The
measures
best
suited
to
achiev-
According to publications by the electrical
save over 1,000 euros annually by installing in-
ing this are: energy-saving renovation of the
telligent building and living solutions.
building stock, heating plant optimisation,
Networking and Smart Metering: In a
installation of energy-saving household appli-
smart home all devices in the home automation
ances and lighting, networking and smart me-
(e.g. heating, ventilation, lighting), the house-
tering (see Chapter B). Measures like these will
hold appliances (e.g. fridge, cooker, washing
not only improve energy efficiency but also in-
machine), the consumer electronics and the
crease comfort and safety.
communication system are linked with each
other. Intelligent homebox systems take care
The potential savings can be illustrated espe-
of the energy management and control the in-
cially well using Germany as an example:
teraction of the devices. This means the washing machine will only start when the electricity
Energy-saving renovation: The majority
is supplied at a particularly favourable price,
of the 18 million residential buildings in Ger-
the security system will sound an alarm if the
many were constructed before 1978, i.e. before
front door is not properly closed and the cof-
the first Thermal Insulation Ordinance came
fee machine will order beans from the online
into force. In terms of heating and electricity,
supplier when the need arises. Sensors such
between 30% and 50% of consumption can
as movement detectors identify changes and
be saved using suitable energy-saving renova-
send the appropriate instructions to the con-
tions. In very old buildings up to 80% savings
nected devices. For instance, the light will au-
can be made.
tomatically switch on when someone enters
Optimising heating systems: Heating and
the room and the heating system will raise the
hot water costs comprise 85% of the energy
temperature to what feels comfortable.
costs in private households. 75% of heating
systems in Germany are out-of-date. If all Ger-
vices checked and controlled remotely from
man households were equipped with the most
outside using laptops, tablet PCs and smart
up-to-date heating systems, then the final en-
phones.
ergy consumption in Germany would drop by
The following chapter illustrates from the ex-
15%. Energy-saving adjustments to the heating
perts' viewpoint how quickly and extensively
system is also significantly cheaper than insu-
the programme described will be adopted in
lating outside walls. If the temperature is con-
private households.
Added to this is the option of having all de-
112
Thesis 10:
Reducing energy consumption in
Energy consumption in existing residential buildings has decreased by 20% in comparison with 2010
thanks to energy-saving renovations.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
CE
2
12
18
59
42
21
31
46
23
M
LUXE
MB
40
50
IU
LG
OU
47
BE
RG
8
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 0%
by 2020: 32%
by 2030: 50%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 82%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 1%
probably never: 1%
82% of the experts have come to the conclusion that energy
≥ 50% of experts
consumption can be reduced by a fifth by 2030. One in three
40-49%
think this is even possible by 2020. Considerable savings in en-
20-39%
ergy consumption can also be made through energy-saving reno-
10-19%
vations in private residential buildings.
< 10%
The most optimistic here are the French: over 90% of French ex-
Remainder for
perts believe in a reduction of this sort by 2030, 42% even think
100%: don't know
it can happen by 2020. One reason for this might be that France
has recently extended its support measures, such as for example
the interest-free eco-loans of up to 30,000 euros per living unit.
400,000 renovations in France's housing stock are planned annually from 2013.
The Belgians in comparison are more cautious: 23% vote for the
targeted savings of 20% only in the period after 2030.
113
enovos trendwatch
Thesis 11:
Penetration of smart homes in new buildings
The percentage of new buildings which are smart
homes will have increased from the current maximum of 1% to 20%.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
CE
25
8
LUXE
MB
54
15
29
38
33
2
9
27
58
12
4
M
3
33
IU
LG
OU
28
BE
RG
16
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 4%
by 2020: 41%
by 2030: 36%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 81%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 14%
probably never: 4%
81% of all experts questioned see this as correct by 2030. Over
≥ 50% of experts
a quarter of all Belgians (27%) and over half of the Germans
40-49%
(56%) believe that an increase in the percentage of new build-
20-39%
ings which are smart homes from currently around 1% to 20%
10-19%
will be possible as early as 2020.
< 10%
In Luxembourg 9% of the experts polled anticipate that 20% of
Remainder for
their new buildings will be intelligent by 2015 and electrical de-
100%: don't know
vices, windows and heating will start to "think for themselves",
and a further 38% expect this by 2020.
France tends to be pessimistic in comparison with other countries:
a third of the experts expect this change by 2020 and another
third by 2030, however 25% also believe that this proportion can
probably never be reached i.e. not even at a later date.
114
Thesis 12:
Upgrading existing buildings
to smart homes
20% of existing buildings will have been upgraded
to smart homes.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
5
CE
25
26
19
32
44
25
18
19
42
23
15
M
LUXE
MB
8
IU
LG
OU
51
BE
RG
42
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 0%
by 2020: 19%
probably never
by 2030: 43%
after 2030
by 2030: 62%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 29%
probably never: 8%
62% of experts anticipate that 20% of the buildings in their
≥ 50% of experts
country will be upgraded to smart homes by 2030 at the latest.
40-49%
From an expert's viewpoint there is obviously greater incentive to
20-39%
erect a new building as an intelligent house than to suitably up-
10-19%
grade an existing building.
< 10%
Across all countries just 19% of all the experts questioned believe
Remainder for
that a fifth of existing buildings will be upgraded to smart homes
100%: don't know
by 2020. Around 43% anticipate this happening between 2020
and 2030.
Whilst Germany (70%), Luxembourg (62%) and Belgium (61%)
are at least reasonably optimistic that the relevant upgrading will
happen by 2030 at the latest, in France only 33% hold this opinion.
42% of French experts see this happening only after 2030 and
25% even believe it will never happen.
115
enovos trendwatch
Thesis 13:
Home climate control systems
Home climate control systems will be in use in 20%
of private households. These control the ventilation, heating and cooling subject to changes in individual requirements.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
2
CE
17
14
21
21
50
15
17
17
3
23
39
15
12
M
LUXE
MB
42
IU
LG
OU
63
BE
RG
8
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 3%
by 2020: 19%
by 2030: 51%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 73%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 16%
probably never: 5%
84% of German and 76% of French experts expect to see home
≥ 60% of experts
climate management systems in use in one in five private
50-59%
households by 2030 at the latest. These systems control the
30-49%
demand-based ventilation, heating and cooling in the home. The
10-29%
supply to individual rooms can be controlled using movement
< 10%
detectors and timer programmes, for example.
Remainder for
France comes top of the list for an early implementation: 17%
100%: don't know
anticipate this as early as 2015 and a similar number by 2020.
However, the percentage of those who assume that this will never
happen in France, i.e. not even after 2030, is also 17%, the highest
when comparing the different countries.
In Luxembourg half those asked expect this to happen between
2020 and 2030 and a fifth in the period after 2030.
In Belgium 39% of those questioned are of the opinion that the
20% figure will be reached between 2020 and 2030.
116
Thesis 14:
Networking
In 20% of private households the HVAC* appliances
are linked with each other in such a way that the
occupier can control them remotely at any time and
from any location.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
5
CE
17
12
LUXE
MB
33
24
21
35
58
2
42
31
19
8
M
9
17
IU
LG
OU
49
BE
RG
8
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 1%
by 2020: 38%
probably never
by 2030: 33%
after 2030
by 2030: 72%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 17%
probably never: 8%
72% of experts believe that, by 2030, one in five private house-
≥ 50% of experts
holds will have become a smart home which can be controlled
40-49%
remotely. Only a quarter of those polled think this will only hap-
20-39%
pen in the distant future or that it will never happen.
10-19%
The French are very cautious with regard to the idea of living in
< 10%
a networked home: 58% believe that one in five will be able to
Remainder for
remotely control their home at any time and from any location.
100%: don't know
The Germans are above-averagely optimistic with 84% agreement by 2030, but the Luxembourgers are comparatively cautious with 56%.
Nevertheless, 24% of the Luxembourg experts anticipate this
scenario in the distant future, in other words after 2030. 9% of
the Luxembourgers questioned rule this out completely from a
current perspective.
*Heating, ventilation and air conditioning
117
enovos trendwatch
Thesis 15:
Automatic energy manager
Automatic energy managers control the whole
energy balance.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
5
CE
8
16
LUXE
MB
30
27
27
21
26
3
33
8
4
27
54
8
8
M
12
25
IU
LG
OU
21
BE
RG
25
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 12%
by 2020: 27%
by 2030: 30%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 69%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 18%
probably never: 8%
69% of all those questioned anticipate the use of automatic en-
≥ 50% of experts
ergy managers in their private households by 2030 at the latest.
40-49%
The energy manager is a piece of software which monitors and
20-39%
controls energy management, thus helping to save energy costs,
10-19%
making optimal use of the owners’ electricity generator and stor-
< 10%
age device.
Remainder for
85% of Belgian experts anticipate the implementation of auto-
100%: don't know
matic energy managers in their private households by 2030. This
is followed by Germany with 77% in favour by 2030, of which 26%
even expect this in the very near future, i.e. by 2015.
Of the French experts, 66% still expect the implementation by
2030, a quarter after this date.
In a comparison of countries, Luxembourg is very hesitant: only
half of the Luxembourg experts expect automatic energy managers to be in use in households there by 2030, over a quarter later
than 2030 and 12% expect it never to happen.
118
Thesis 16:
Preferences in the cloud or on the smartphone
At least 10% of private end users will have saved their preferences for such
things as room temperature or lighting conditions in the cloud or on a
smartphone. Wherever the consumer goes, the surroundings adapt to their
preferences.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
CE
7
5
LUXE
MB
47
12
32
32
67
14
3
4
62
23
4
8
M
9
25
IU
LG
OU
28
BE
RG
8
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 7%
by 2020: 48%
by 2030: 28%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 83%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 7%
probably never: 7%
83% of all respondents think that automatic adjustment of the
≥ 60% of experts
surroundings according to individual profiles regardless of their
50-59%
location will be possible by 2030 at the latest. On entering a
30-49%
room a personal illumination switches on, the temperature ad-
10-29%
justs, the person's favourite music starts to play, pictures appear
< 10%
on the walls in digital frames and in the bathroom the water tem-
Remainder for
perature adjusts.
100%: don't know
92% of the French experts polled agree that this scenario will be a
reality for at least 10% of the population by 2030 at the latest, 67%
of these believe it will happen as early as 2020.
89% of both the German and Belgian experts can imagine this
happening by 2030, 14% of the German experts as early as 2015.
Likewise, two thirds of the Luxembourg experts are optimistic that
this will be adopted in their country by 2020 or between 2020 and
2030.
119
enovos trendwatch
Thesis 17:
Integration of the smart sectors
Intelligent smart home solutions and electromobility will have been integrated in such a way that it
will be possible to exchange energy between buildings and vehicles.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
7
CE
8
7
LUXE
MB
35
29
24
18
17
21
6
4
31
27
27
12
M
9
50
IU
LG
OU
30
BE
RG
25
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 10%
by 2020: 27%
by 2030: 30%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 67%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 20%
probably never: 9%
67% of all experts anticipate that smart home solutions and elec-
≥ 50% of experts
tromobility will have been integrated like this by 2030 at the lat-
40-49%
est, so that energy exchange between buildings and cars will be
20-39%
possible. Electric vehicles could perform an important function
10-19%
in adjusting electricity supply and demand for private households
< 10%
as, statistically, they are parked for between 95% and 98% of the
Remainder for
year and are therefore available as an energy storage device.
100%: don't know
The German experts are particularly optimistic on this score: 86%
think it likely by 2030, of which 35% anticipate it by 2020 and a
fifth of those polled as early as 2015.
Not even half of the Luxembourg experts questioned anticipate
the integration of smart homes and electromobility by 2030. Almost a third think it is likely only at a later period. This also applies
to around a quarter each of the French and Belgian experts.
120
5.
New ways of living and dwelling will also
become accepted in the private home
In 2030 one in five Europeans will be 65 or older. Smart home solutions make an important contribution to enabling older people
to lead a largely independent life on a continuing basis.
Amongst the age-appropriate assistance systems are those
which "age" alongside their inhabitants. Residents can select
exactly the personal services and technical measures from their
housing association which best suit their situation in life.
T
hese assistance systems will only be used if they result
in a noticeable cost-saving on the one hand and are
accompanied by an actual improvement in the quality of
life on the other.
I anticipate an unwillingness to accept something like the
robot assistant in the current 70 to 80 year-olds as this
generation is often not able to master complex technolo-
gies such as mobile phones or smartphones. However, I
see a large potential for the next generation, those who
are currently 50 to 60 years old.
The intelligent house concept is also of interest to young
people and is certain to gain acceptance quickly.
Other trends which benefit the new ways of living and dwelling
are the move towards single households and to patchwork families, plus the mobilisation of the world of work, for example with a
growing emphasis on home office solutions. Increasing numbers
of people are making the decision to live in multigenerational
households where they benefit from shared activities and from
care opportunities for children and older people.
The following chapter discusses the degree to which new liv-
ing arrangements and lifestyles are being adopted in the countries on which the trend study is based.
Françoise Folmer
Leader of team 31
Bureau d’architecture s.à r.l.,
Luxembourg
121
enovos trendwatch
Thesis 18:
Age-appropriate assistance systems
Assistance systems are in use in private households
which enable the elderly and those at a disadvantage to lead an independent life in their own home.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
CE
2
7
LUXE
MB
47
41
29
3
26
33
8
12
31
31
19
4
M
6
33
IU
LG
OU
19
BE
RG
25
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 14%
by 2020: 37%
by 2030: 30%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 81%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 11%
probably never: 2%
92% of the German experts and around three quarters of the
≥ 40% of experts
experts in France, Luxembourg and Belgium expect the use of
30-39%
age-appropriate assistance systems in private households by
20-29%
2030 at the latest. Age-appropriate assistance systems based
10-19%
on micro systems and communication technology support the el-
< 10%
derly in their own living environment. For example, technical aids
Remainder for
can undertake part of the daily household tasks, the HVAC can be
100%: don't know
controlled by a mobile device which is also Internet-enabled and
can be used for communication.
Whilst in Germany a quarter think this will happen by 2015 and a
further 47% by 2020, the French experts believe it will only occur
after 2030. The Belgian experts are equally cautious with 19% for
this time period.
122
Thesis 19:
Health assistants
Health assistants, which are small mobile robots,
enable many people who would otherwise be in need
of care to lead an independent life.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
12
CE
17
14
LUXE
MB
26
21
24
32
17
7
8
15
15
46
15
M
6
25
IU
LG
OU
42
BE
RG
33
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 4%
by 2020: 24%
by 2030: 29%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 57%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 25%
probably never: 11%
More than one in two experts anticipate that health assistants
≥ 40% of experts
will be in use by 2030 at the latest, a quarter only after 2030.
30-39%
11% of the experts believe this will not happen. Health assistants
20-29%
are small mobile robots which look after people in need of care in
10-19%
their own homes 24 hours a day. For example, they serve meals,
< 10%
drinks and medicines which have been prepared in advance by
Remainder for
care personnel, or they give reminders to drink enough fluids.
100%: don't know
Comparing the different countries, it is only the Belgians who are
rather hesitant about the use of health assistants in their homes.
Only 30% think this will happen by 2030 and over 60% believe this
will only happen in the distant future or even never. The Germans
are particularly optimistic: three quarters anticipate that health
assistants will have gained acceptance by 2030.
123
enovos trendwatch
Thesis 20:
Telemonitoring
Telemonitoring solutions will have become established in at least 10% of private households.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
2
CE
8
14
LUXE
MB
42
21
21
24
25
2
3
42
31
23
4
M
15
42
IU
LG
OU
37
BE
RG
25
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 2%
by 2020: 35%
by 2030: 31%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 68%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 19%
probably never: 7%
Two thirds of the experts believe that telemonitoring solutions
≥ 40% of experts
will have become established in at least 10% of private homes
30-39%
by 2030 at the latest. 37% expect this to happen as early as 2020.
20-29%
26% of those polled assume that this will only happen after 2030
10-19%
or will never happen.
< 10%
Telemonitoring is the ability to carry out remote examination, di-
Remainder for
agnosis and monitoring of the patient by the attending doctor.
100%: don't know
This is achieved by fitting the patient with equipment for measuring vital data such as blood pressure, heart rate etc.
44% of German and 42% of Belgian experts expect the spread of
these solutions in 10% of all households as early as 2020. In France
and Luxembourg it is only around a quarter of those interviewed.
124
Thesis 21:
Multigenerational households
At least 10% of the population will live in multigenerational households.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
9
CE
8
21
16
18
18
35
9
25
2
3
8
15
54
19
8
M
LUXE
MB
17
IU
LG
OU
49
BE
RG
42
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 3%
by 2020: 15%
by 2030: 43%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 61%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 22%
probably never: 11%
18% of the experts anticipate that 10% of the population will be
≥ 50% of experts
living in a multigenerational household by 2020 at the latest.
40-49%
61% believe that this will be the case by 2030 at the latest. Mul-
20-39%
tigenerational households provide a private flat and some rooms
10-19%
for communal use. The communal living is characterised by mu-
< 10%
tual help, for example in looking after children, doing shopping,
Remainder for
care, etc.
100%: don't know
With almost 70% in agreement, the experts in Belgium and Germany are more optimistic then those in Luxembourg and France
where around 50% of those polled expect this to happen.
18% of the Luxembourg experts questioned cannot imagine these
type of living arrangements even for only 10% of the population
in their country.
125
enovos trendwatch
Thesis 22:
New care and relationship models
Every fourth citizen will live in a network family.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
37
CE
25
40
LUXE
MB
5
21
6
9
4
19
31
35
M
29
33
IU
LG
OU
19
BE
RG
42
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 0%
by 2020: 5%
by 2030: 17%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 22%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 32%
probably never: 33%
22% of experts believe that every fourth citizen will live in a
≥ 40% of experts
network family by 2030 at the latest. A "network family" is one
30-39%
with new care and relationship models which includes not only the
20-29%
family in the narrow sense, but also neighbours and friends. The
10-19%
appropriate motto is: "Family is where you can go to the fridge
< 10%
without having to ask."
Remainder for
A third of all those polled think that this will only become reality
100%: don't know
after 2030 and the same number do not imagine this will ever
happen in their country.
In a national comparison, the percentage of those who do not believe in this at all is highest in Germany with 37%, followed by Belgium with 35%. After 2030, however, the French give this scenario
a chance with 42% and the Germans with 40%.
126
Thesis 23:
Social housing management
Housing associations will derive 10% of their turnover from social housing management and services
in connection with care for the elderly.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
CE
5
9
40
3
21
29
12
7
6
25
58
27
8
4
M
LUXE
MB
50
IU
LG
OU
35
BE
RG
17
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 4%
by 2020: 34%
probably never
by 2030: 33%
after 2030
by 2030: 71%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 13%
probably never: 4%
71% of experts believe that housing associations will derive 10%
≥ 50% of experts
of their turnover from social housing management and servic-
40-49%
es in connection with care for the elderly by 2030 at the lat-
20-39%
est. Increasing numbers of people live alone. Older people with
10-19%
limited mobility are particularly dependent on a well-functioning
< 10%
network. Housing associations have recognised this and have de-
Remainder for
veloped new business areas in line with this.
100%: don't know
85% of the Belgians expect this to happen by 2030 of which 58%
expect it as early as 2020. In Luxembourg comparatively few experts (47%) credit the housing associations there with being able
to achieve around 10% of their turnover from these new services
by 2030.
The German experts are the optimists in this: 46% believe that a
10% share of turnover in a period up to 2020 is possible.
enovos trendwatch
6.
Economic opportunities from new
business areas
Smart building and smart home solutions need be developed
jointly. They offer business opportunities for the provider in different sectors, for example energy suppliers, telecommunication
companies and building service engineers as well as for architects and tradesmen. There are also openings in additional business areas for new players such as companies in the real estate
sector.
Suppliers and consumers both look for comprehensive advice,
in other words for a system integrator.
System integrator: Customers want smart home provision
from one source. Energy suppliers therefore develop networks in
partnership with the manufacturers and operators of smart buildings/smart home solutions to be able to offer comprehensive support to their customers from advice via design to the execution,
installation and maintenance.
CONSULTING: The attraction of contracting solutions is increasing
for functional buildings. The model in which heating energy is supplied by the service provider at a fixed price is particularly popular.
The contractor installs an economical heating system for the customer at their own expense and takes care of the maintenance. At
the end of the term of the contract, which is usually between seven
and twelve years, the system passes into the client's possession. In
his own interest the contractor ensures the most cost-effective energy and carbon dioxide balance of the building in his care up until
then. The design and implementation of energy-saving measures
is routine for contracting providers, whereas the property managers do not usually have this expertise.
In the following chapter we have asked the experts to what degree the trends towards system integrators and contracting solutions will penetrate the market and which additional new business areas will be added.
127
128
Thesis 24:
System integrators
As system integrators, energy utility companies
generate at least 10% of their turnover with smart
building service packages.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
12
CE
17
LUXE
MB
33
6
27
18
42
5
3
4
39
31
4
15
M
12
42
IU
LG
OU
37
BE
RG
9
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 4%
by 2020: 30%
probably never
by 2030: 33%
after 2030
by 2030: 67%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 6%
probably never: 13%
Two thirds of the experts consulted are of the opinion that the
≥ 40% of experts
energy suppliers will obtain at least 10% of their turnover from
30-39%
smart building service packages by 2030 at the latest. When
20-29%
it comes to intelligent building solutions, customers would like a
10-19%
central contact for all their needs. Energy suppliers can develop
< 10%
networks with manufacturers and managers of smart building
Remainder for
technology and can enter the market as what are known as "sys-
100%: don't know
tem integrators" who provide an all-in service for their customers
from advice via design to the implementation and installation of
the solutions.
The French experts are particularly optimistic about this: 42% anticipate it as early as 2020 and a further 42% by 2030.
75% of the German experts can envisage this turnover percentage between now and 2030.
In Luxembourg not even one in two of those questioned (48%)
anticipate that this will happen.
129
enovos trendwatch
Thesis 25:
Energy and heating management
The energy suppliers will take on the energy and
heating management of buildings and generate at
least 10% of their turnover from this service.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
12
CE
8
2
LUXE
MB
30
6
32
27
9
33
12
8
8
39
39
M
12
42
IU
LG
OU
42
BE
RG
8
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 6%
by 2020: 31%
by 2030: 38%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 75%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 4%
probably never: 11%
Three quarters of the experts are optimistic that energy suppli-
≥ 40% of experts
ers will be able to achieve at least 10% of their turnover from this
30-39%
service by 2030 at the latest. The energy suppliers will undertake
20-29%
the energy and heating management both of private houses and
10-19%
functional buildings. In terms of solutions for companies this will
< 10%
include, for example, the implementation of an energy manage-
Remainder for
ment system tailored exactly to the technical and economic needs
100%: don't know
of the specific company. All processes which consume energy will
be optimised in line with demand and cost criteria.
Some experts in Germany (9%), France (8%) and Belgium (8%)
could imagine this happening even in the short-term, i.e. by 2015.
However, the majority of experts anticipate it happening in the
period from 2020 to 2030. 11% do not expect this to happen, not
even at a later date.
130
Thesis 26:
Housing associations as decentralised electricity producers
The energy suppliers will have lost 10% of their
turnover to the property industry.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
5
CE
8
26
LUXE
MB
35
9
21
12
17
2
8
4
27
35
12
19
M
18
25
IU
LG
OU
30
BE
RG
33
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 3%
by 2020: 24%
by 2030: 28%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 55%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 18%
probably never: 12%
55% of the experts questioned could imagine that the energy
≥ 40% of experts
suppliers will lose around 10% of their turnover to the real estate
30-39%
industry by 2030, made up of over a quarter between now and
20-29%
2020 and over a quarter in the period from 2020 to 2030. The
10-19%
housing associations could establish themselves as decentralised
< 10%
electricity producers and energy suppliers for their tenants.
Remainder for
The German and Belgian experts are in agreement about the es-
100%: don't know
timate for the period to 2030 with 67% and 66% respectively expecting this outcome.
Whilst around a quarter of the German experts believe that this will
happen after 2030, a fifth of Belgian experts assume that this will
never happen.
In France one in two experts assume that the energy suppliers will
lose 10% of their turnover to the housing associations by 2030 and
a third believe this will happen after 2030.
131
enovos trendwatch
Thesis 27:
Remote maintenance
Energy suppliers will derive 5% of their turnover
from remote maintenance.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
CE
9
40
9
15
29
18
5
3
25
17
4
39
39
4
15
M
LUXE
MB
58
IU
LG
OU
26
BE
RG
16
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 5%
by 2020: 31%
by 2030: 33%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 69%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 11%
probably never: 10%
69% of the experts polled can imagine that energy suppliers will
≥ 50% of experts
derive around 5% of their turnover from remote maintenance by
40-49%
2030, over a third by 2020 and a third by 2030. Remote mainte-
20-39%
nance solutions are optimally suited for dispersed properties and
10-19%
branch businesses such as supermarket chains, banks or munici-
< 10%
pal facilities. Typical applications are monitoring and optimisation
Remainder for
of systems for heating, air conditioning, ventilation and lighting in
100%: don't know
order to support the exploitation of energy efficiency potentials
of networked buildings.
All French experts agreed with the start of the scenario by 2030,
17% of them even assuming that this will happen in the short-term,
i.e. by 2015.
82% of the Belgian experts also believe that 5% of energy suppliers' turnover will be able to be derived from remote maintenance
by 2030.
132
7.
drivers for smart home and smart
building solutions
The most important drivers are the reduction of energy consumption (90%) and energy costs (85%). The improvement in
comfort is also considered an equally important driver with 85%.
How many experts judge particular drivers for the introduc-
tion of smart home and smart building solutions as "very important" and "important"? The following presentation focuses on
this.
Reducing energy consumption: 90% of experts believe decreasing energy consumption is an important reason to invest in
intelligent building solutions. All French experts are of this opinion.
Reducing energy costs: 85% of experts consider the decrease in energy costs – house management systems are expected
to produce energy savings between 17% and 40% – as an important driver. Again, 100% of all French experts are convinced of this.
Improvement of personal living comfort: 85% of experts
consider the improvement of personal living comfort as an important incentive for intelligent building renovations.
Short payback times: The short payback periods for the investments made are an important reason in the opinion of 77% of
the experts. 88% of German experts agree with this.
State support for intelligent building renovation.
75% of experts see state subsidy measures as an important incentive for smart home and smart building solutions.
Building and appliance safety: 68% of experts consider the
increased building and appliance safety to be an important reason to convert to smart home and smart building solutions. This
applies particularly to the Luxembourg (79%) and French (75%)
experts.
Demographic change: 60% of all experts view the demographic change as an important determining factor for intelligent
building renovation, the German experts with 70% more so than
the Luxembourg ones with only 47%.
133
enovos trendwatch
luxembourg
germany
france
belgium
90%
Reduction in
energy consumption
88%
88%
100%
88%
85%
Reduction in energy costs
82%
77%
100%
96%
85%
Improvement in personal
living comfort, daily organisation and communication in
private households
79%
88%
83%
88%
68%
88%
67%
73%
74%
74%
83%
73%
79%
58%
75%
65%
47%
70%
58%
62%
77% Short payback times for the
investments made
75%
State support measures
for both residential and
functional buildings
68%
Improved building and
appliance safety for
residential and functional
buildings
60%
Demographic change
All countries
Only data for the categories "very important" and "important"
134
8.
Barriers to smart home and
smart building solutions
The following presentations of the empiri-
Lack of partner and sales manage-
cal results summarise the expert opinions on
ment: 61% of all experts, but as many as 85%
barriers which are "a severe obstacle to" and
of the Belgian ones view the lack of partner
"an obstacle to" the implementation of smart
and sales management as a significant barrier.
building and smart home solutions.
However, only 38% of the Luxembourg experts
consider this to be the case.
Excessive costs: 84% of all experts polled
Lack of network structures: 57% of all
consider the costs of intelligent building solu-
experts, but 83% of the experts in France con-
tions to be too high. This opinion is held by all
sider the lack of network structures between
experts in France and 96% of those in Belgium.
manufactures and managers to be a signifi-
Lack of standards: 77% of experts identi-
cant obstacle to development. In Belgium less
fy the lack of standards as a significant barrier.
than one in two experts (42%) agrees with this.
The lack of industrial standards which would
guarantee the interoperability of the interfaces
The remaining barriers "high dependency on
are an obstacle to development for 86% of the
technology" (52%) and "Differing life cycles
German experts and 83% of the French ones.
of buildings and the devices to be integrated"
68% of experts in Luxembourg share this opin-
(46%) were named by significantly fewer ex-
ion.
perts as being significant barriers.
Lack of qualified personnel: 76% of ex-
perts and all the French experts view the lack
only seen as an obstacle by 37% of the Ger-
of qualified personnel as a key barrier to de-
man experts but around two thirds of the
velopment.
Luxembourg and French experts.
Lack of a system integrator: 66% of all
The differing life cycles of devices and
those questioned and as many as 81% of Bel-
buildings are also seen as an obstacle by only
gian experts agree that the lack of a system
30% of the German experts, but 67% of the
integrator is an significant obstacle to devel-
French and 62% of the Belgian ones.
opment. This is comparatively less important
in France (50%).
Lack of confidence in data protection: 63% of all experts but 75% of the French
experts believe that the public's lack of confidence in data protection is slowing down the
spread of smart building/smart home solutions.
The high dependency on technology is
135
enovos trendwatch
luxembourg
germany
france
belgium
84%
Excessive costs
82%
72%
100%
96%
77%
Lack of standards
and interoperability
between interfaces
68%
86%
83%
73%
76%
Lack of qualified
personnel
74%
72%
100%
73%
66%
Lack of a so-called
"system integrator"
56%
70%
50%
81%
63%
Lack of end user
confidence in guaranteeing
data protection
56%
68%
75%
62%
61%
Lack of cross-sector partner and sales management
38%
68%
50%
85%
57%
Established network
structures between manufacturers and operators
59%
56%
83%
42%
52%
High dependency
on the technology
68%
37%
67%
50%
46%
Differing life cycles
between buildings and the
appliances to be integrated
47%
30%
67%
62%
All countries
Only data for the categories
"severe obstacle to" and "obstacle to"
smart mobility | electric vehicles and modern mobility concepts
chapter D
smart Mobility
Electric vehicles
and modern
mobility concepts
136
enovos trendwatch
1.
The market for electric vehicles
Electromobility is set to make an important contribution to more
environmentally friendly and sustainable private transport. Even
though transport has become more energy efficient and environmentally friendly over the last few decades, in the EU it still
depends on oil or oil products for over 90% of its energy requirements. Traffic is therefore responsible for the air pollution in cities
to a significant degree. In Luxembourg transportation, which is
characterised by high commuter traffic and fuel tourism, accounts
for 60% of total energy consumption. In Germany transport causes 20% of the total CO2 emissions. 85% of this is due to road traffic and 15% to ship, train and air transport.
The terms "electromobility" and "sustainable transport sys-
tems" are used almost synonymously. This includes the technical and economic aspects of electric vehicles and new mobility
concepts such as mobility on demand and car sharing which are
given new impetus through electric vehicles.
New drive technologies and renewable energies will enable a
reduction in the CO2 emissions to zero in the end. However, most
of the technologies which this requires are not available. The same
applies to the necessary infrastructure comprising charging stations and intelligent park & ride systems.
137
138
In Europe there is an awareness of the importance of having a
resource-saving transport system, especially in view of the expected further growth in the numbers of passenger vehicles and
increasing urbanisation. Both the EU Commission and the individual member states are investing in numerous research and development programmes, some of which have very ambitious targets.
Both France and Germany are trying to achieve market leadership
in electromobility. The German automotive industry plans to invest ten to twelve billion euros in the development of alternative
drives by 2014/15. In May 2011 the German Federal Government
announced an additional billion euros for an R&D programme to
promote electromobility. The French government wants to invest
a total of around 1.5 billion euros in electromobility and the infrastructure required for it. It has ordered 50,000 vehicles for public
administration, for example.
The success of electromobility depends on many factors.
Some of the important drivers are a competitive market price, low
maintenance and operating costs and a country-wide charging infrastructure.
E
lectromobility is a strategic issue which no manufacturer can ignore these days.
The real question is, "how" and "when" to deal with the
issue.
"How": from the manufacturers' point of view this con-
cerns the decision about whether to change to electriconly vehicles or rather to pursue a gradual approach via
the hybrid drive. It would currently be highly risky to
concentrate on electric-only drives.
"When": the aims announced by some governments and
manufacturers for 2020 seem very optimistic.
139
enovos trendwatch
michel braquet
adal president
Association des Distributeurs
Automobiles Luxembourgeois
Luxembourg
The crucial factors for the development of electric
vehicles are, first, a rapid improvement in battery
technology (weight and volume) and a reduction in
costs and, second, acceptance by the public which
continues to be sceptical of an expensive means of
transport which still has an inadequate range.
In this chapter 102 experts from Luxembourg, Germany, France
and Belgium have assessed the market opportunities and new
mobility concepts. We asked the experts which technological
innovations would be required, which conditions would help
to promote the development of the market for electric vehicles and what the mobility of the future might look like. The
focus of the study is private transport.
140
Luxembourg
2.04%
10%
-20% target
percentage of
percentage of
ghg*-
renewable ener-
renewable ener-
emissions
gies in transport
gies in transport
(2020)
sector (2010)
sector (2020)
49
40,000
49,881
electric cars/
electric cars/
new registrations
electric vehicles
electric vehicles
of passenger cars
(2011)
(target 2020)
(2011)
47.3 %
52.1%
contribution of
contribution of
Greenhouse
transport and
transport and traf-
gas emissions
traffic to ghg*
fic to ghg* emissions
emissions (2005)
(2010 in comparison
*GHG
with 2005)
2,788 ktoe
2,571 ktoe
final consumption of
transport fuels
transport fuels
(2005)
(2010)
0.00 %
2.04%
percentage of bio fuels
in motor fuels
in motor fuels
(2005)
(2010)
1.02 €/litre
1.29 €/litre
petrol prices
petrol prices
Super 95 (inc. taxes)
(2005)
(2011)
141
enovos trendwatch
germany
5.73 %
10%
-14% target
percentage of
percentage of
ghg*-
renewable ener-
renewable ener-
emissions
gies in transport
gies in transport
(2020)
sector (2010)
sector (2020)
2,154
1,000,000
3,173,634
electric cars/
electric cars/
new registrations
electric vehicles
electric vehicles
of passenger cars
(2011)
(target 2020)
(2011)
15.6 %
16.5%
contribution of
contribution of
transport and
transport and traf-
traffic to ghg*
emissions (2005)
(2010 in comparison
with 2005)
58,978 ktoe
57,265 ktoe
transport fuels
transport fuels
(2005)
(2010)
3.70 %
5.73 %
in motor fuels
in motor fuels
(2005)
(2010)
1.22 €/litre
1.53 €/litre
petrol prices
petrol prices
(2005)
(2011)
142
france
6.10%
10%
-14% target
percentage of
percentage of
ghg*-
renewable ener-
renewable ener-
emissions
gies in transport
gies in transport
(2020)
sector (2010)
sector (2020)
2,630
2,000,000
2,204,229
electric cars/
electric cars/
new registrations
electric vehicles
electric vehicles
of passenger cars
(2011)
(target 2020)
(2011)
23.7 %
25.3%
contribution of
contribution of
transport and
transport and traf-
traffic to ghg*
emissions (2005)
(2010 in comparison
with 2005)
49,025 ktoe
46,541 ktoe
transport fuels
transport fuels
(2005)
(2010)
0.90 %
6.10 %
in motor fuels
in motor fuels
(2005)
(2010)
1.16 €/litre
1.50 €/litre
petrol prices
petrol prices
(2005)
(2011)
143
enovos trendwatch
belgium
4.33%
10%
-15% target
percentage of
percentage of
ghg*-
renewable ener-
renewable ener-
emissions
gies in transport
gies in transport
(2020)
sector (2010)
sector (2020)
990
1,000,000
572,211
electric cars/
electric cars/
new registrations
electric vehicles
electric vehicles
of passenger cars
(2011)
(target 2020)
(2011)
15.4 %
18.3%
contribution of
contribution of
transport and
transport and traf-
traffic to ghg*
emissions (2009)
(2010 in comparison
with 2005)
9,781 ktoe
9,787 ktoe
transport fuels
transport fuels
(2005)
(2010)
0.00 %
4.33 %
in motor fuels
in motor fuels
(2005)
(2010)
1.22 €/litre
1.54 €/litre
petrol prices
petrol prices
(2005)
(2011)
144
Thesis 1:
Penetration of electric vehicles
The countries reach their targets of getting a specific number of electric vehicles on the road by
2020.
76% of the experts evaluate the commitment of the national
governments to promote electromobility as unrealistic. The
governments' national objectives for electric vehicles (including
hybrid vehicles) are ambitious. In Luxembourg it is planned to have
around 40,000 electric vehicles registered by 2020, in Germany
one million and in France two million electric vehicles should be
on the roads.
The experts are unanimous, with three quarters believing that these targets will not be met. However, there are major differences
between the countries.
78%
76%
21%
13%
Yes
No
ALL COUNTRIES
Luxembourg
Target 2020: 40,000
145
enovos trendwatch
In Luxembourg and Germany more than three quarters of the experts take a pessimistic view. They view the quotas set as utopian.
Although in France only 2,600 electric vehicles were registered
in 2011, 44% of experts can envisage that the target of two million
vehicles could be reached by 2020. Because the public bodies are
required to switch to electric vehicles, the experts believe that a
significant increase in the numbers can well be expected.
The Belgian experts are rightly pessimistic if we compare the
current number of registrations (990 electric vehicles) with the
target of one million set in the survey. Realistic scenarios assume a
maximum of 300,000 to 500,000 electric and hybrid vehicles.
100%
77%
50%
44%
23%
GERMANY
FRANCE
BELGIUM
Target 2020: 1,000,000
Target 2020: 2,000,000
Target 2020:
1,000,000
146
Thesis 2:
Electric vehicles with power from
renewable energies
70% of the electric vehicles will be supplied with
power from renewable energies.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
3
CE
17
23
LUXE
MB
21
34
16
6
17
10
9
23
39
23
8
M
19
22
IU
LG
OU
44
BE
RG
33
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 7%
by 2020: 16%
by 2030: 30%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 53%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 28%
probably never: 11%
According to 53% of the experts, electric vehicles will be sup-
≥ 40% of experts
plied mainly with power from renewable energies only after
30-39%
2030. There will only be a clear environmental benefit from elec-
20-29%
tric vehicles when the necessary energy is primarily - 70% in our
10-19%
case - obtained from renewable energies.
< 10%
None of the Belgian and French experts polled can imagine that
Remainder for
electric vehicles will be supplied primarily with power from renew-
100%: don't know
able energies as early as 2015. In fact, only 23% of experts can
envisage this happening by 2020.
However a period after 2020 to 2030 seems more realistic. 30%
of all those questioned and as many as 44% of the German and
39% of the Belgian experts believe that this could indeed be the
case by 2030.
One in three French and Luxembourg experts can only see this
happening after 2030. 11% of respondents view the scenario as
totally unlikely.
147
enovos trendwatch
Thesis 3:
Electric cars for company vehicles
The ten companies with the largest turnover have
undertaken to convert at least 50% of their company vehicles to electric cars with green electricity.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
10
CE
11
18
LUXE
MB
15
9
34
19
39
11
6
31
23
39
M
16
28
IU
LG
OU
46
BE
RG
11
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 4%
by 2020: 22%
by 2030: 38%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 64%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 12%
probably never: 15%
By 2030 the fleets of the largest companies will mostly use elec-
≥ 40% of experts
tric vehicles with green electricity. Given the lack of interest in
30-39%
buying electric cars on the part of private individuals, their num-
20-29%
bers can be increased by using them in company fleets. This fu-
10-19%
ture scenario relates only to companies, not to public authorities.
< 10%
38% of those polled could envisage electric cars powered mainly
Remainder for
by green electricity in company fleets between 2020 and 2030.
100%: don't know
46% of the German, 39% of the Belgian, 34% of the Luxembourg
and 28% of the French experts agreed with this scenario. In France
39% of the experts could imagine this quota being reached in
companies as early as 2015 to 2020.
12% of all those questioned believe that this can only be expected
after 2030 and 15% believe these kind of targets to be completely
unrealistic. In fact, in Belgium 31% of the experts assume that this
will never happen.
148
Thesis 4:
Electric vehicles tied to electricity contracts
from energy utility companies (EUCs)
30% of the electric vehicles will be supplied tied to
electricity contracts from EUCs.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
21
CE
17
8
LUXE
MB
31
6
28
28
10
6
28
23
17
15
M
13
22
IU
LG
OU
26
BE
RG
6
46
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 11%
by 2020: 31%
probably never
by 2030: 23%
after 2030
by 2030: 65%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 6%
probably never: 18%
65% of the experts think that energy companies will play an im-
≥ 40% of experts
portant role in the sale of electric vehicles. The majority of the
30-39%
experts polled assume that, by 2030, a third of electric vehicles
20-29%
will be sold by energy suppliers as part of a contract between the
10-19%
energy company and the electricity customer. Energy suppliers
< 10%
could offer their customers attractive and straightforward credit
Remainder for
via ongoing electricity contracts. They would also be assigned
100%: don't know
greater authority for the necessary infrastructure for electric vehicles (e.g. charging points) than car dealers and manufacturers.
In Luxembourg 62% of the experts believe that by 2030 30% of
the electric vehicles will be sold through electricity contracts from
energy suppliers. In both Germany and France this figure is 67%
and in Belgium 61% of experts believe that this distribution channel will be in operation as early as 2020.
149
enovos trendwatch
Thesis 5:
Electric vehicles tied to electricity contracts
from car manufacturers
30% of electric vehicles will be sold as part of an
electricity contract from car manufacturers.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
26
CE
17
13
LUXE
MB
26
13
28
19
13
6
28
31
11
15
M
16
22
IU
LG
OU
21
BE
RG
11
23
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 11%
by 2020: 24%
by 2030: 21%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 56%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 11%
probably never: 22%
56% of the experts believe that, by 2030, the sales of electric
≥ 40% of experts
vehicles via electricity contracts will play an important role for
30-39%
car manufacturers It will be interesting to see which business
20-29%
models arise in connection with this. Will the customer set up his
10-19%
electricity contract directly with the car manufacturer or will the
< 10%
latter act as an intermediary?
Remainder for
In Luxembourg 53% of the experts assume that by 2030 30% of
100%: don't know
vehicles will be sold tied to an electricity contract from a car manufacturer. In France this figure is as high as 61%. Only the Belgian
experts are a little more cautious. 38% think that this will happen
by 2020 but 31% believe that it will never happen. None of the
Belgian experts see it happening in the years between 2020 and
2030 or after 2030.
150
Thesis 6:
Competitive price
Electric vehicles will be sold at an attractive and
competitive price in comparison with conventionally powered vehicles.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
CE
5
10
LUXE
MB
41
9
25
44
10
13
33
39
8
62
15
8
8
M
3
17
IU
LG
OU
33
BE
RG
6
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 16%
by 2020: 43%
by 2030: 26%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 85%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 9%
probably never: 4%
43% of the experts believe that electric vehicles will be available
≥ 60% of experts
at an attractive price by 2020. The main disincentive for buy-
50-59%
ing electric vehicles is their high purchase price. An attractive and
30-49%
competitive price is therefore essential in order to achieve wide-
10-29%
spread distribution amongst private vehicles.
< 10%
62% of the Belgian experts expect there to be attractively-priced
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models on the market between 2020 and 2030.
100%: don't know
In France 72% of the experts believe that attractive prices will be
on offer by 2020. In Luxembourg only 13% are convinced of this,
however 57% of those polled believe that competitive electric vehicles will be on sale by 2020. Interestingly, the German experts
take a more sceptical view: of these only 51% think that electric
vehicles will be available on the market at an attractive price by
2020.
151
enovos trendwatch
Thesis 7:
Market leadership
Germany / France
Both Germany and France are attempting to become
the world market leader in electromobility.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
62
CE
44
10
6
13
17
10
6
3
28
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 11%
by 2020: 9%
by 2030: 14%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 34%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 9%
probably never: 56%
Neither France nor Germany will have established themselves as
≥ 60% of experts
the internationally leading market for electromobility by 2030.
50-59%
France and Germany are leading car manufacturing nations. The
30-49%
governments have set themselves the aim of taking a pioneering
10-29%
role in electromobility worldwide. Both in France and Germany
< 10%
there are investment programmes at government and company
Remainder for
level running to billions of euros with the aim of becoming the
100%: don't know
world market leader.
In view of the increasingly difficult economic situation in the automotive industry, 56% of the experts polled expect that neither
country will become the world market leader in electromobility,
even after 2030. In Germany 62% believe that this will never happen, in France the figure is 44%.
152
2.
The key to success:
Advances in technology
and in the infrastructure
The success of electric vehicles will depend on the drive technologies employed and the charging infrastructure.
Hybrid motors present a bridging technology until an electrical
drive, ideally based on renewable energies, is ready for the market
in the longer term. According to a current study by A.T. Kearney,
in Europe just over 60% of all new vehicles will be fitted with an
electrified drive by 2025. However, with 12%, all-electric vehicles
will continue to comprise only a small percentage whereas hybrid
drives will power almost half of all new vehicles in Europe in 2025.
Plug-in hybrids will be integrated in over 20% of new vehicles,
particularly in the top-of-the range sector.
Taking the behaviour of an average German car driver (driving
less than 40 km on around 80% of days in the year) then, with a
plug-in hybrid vehicle with a battery with a range of 40 km, more
than half of the annual distance can in theory be travelled purely
electrically. The internal combustion engine would cover for longdistance journeys.
The range of an electric vehicle is determined by the ability to
store electrical energy. The battery therefore presents a particular
challenge for every electric vehicle. The difficulty lies in its operating range which is currently only about 150 to 200 km. This represents a considerable competitive disadvantage in comparison with
a fuel-driven vehicle. Developing the battery technology further is
therefore a key element of a successful market share for electric
vehicles.
W
e do not yet have perpetuum mobile, but the hybrid technology has a great deal of potential, also
Jean-Louis Rigaux
Managing Director
Lexus Luxembourg,
Luxembourg
bearing in mind the cleanliness of the automatic reloading system. Naturally it would be better if the combustion
engine and the electric hybrid could dispense with fossil
fuels completely. Hybrid combined with hydrogen could
definitely be a clean future technology.
Which technology will be adopted may depend on advances in a
research area which cannot even be foreseen at present. In order
to achieve reductions in harmful CO2 emissions in vehicles as well,
it is essential to optimise existing technologies and develop new
enovos trendwatch
drive types and fuels. However, the spread of
electric vehicles is also affected by external
factors such as the price of oil, demography
and changing values.
Besides the technology, a country-wide and
functioning infrastructure for charging electric
vehicles is crucial for their successful spread.
Charging stations must be available in a dense
network: ideally in outside car parks or multistorey car parks where the charging process
can take place quickly during normal parking.
Ambitious targets have been set for some aspects of this by the national governments of
the countries in the study. For instance, Luxembourg wants to invest ten million euros by
2020 in 850 public charging stations spread
over the country. In France 75,000 public and
900,000 private charging stations are to be
installed by 2015 with the aim of providing
4.4 million charging locations over the entire
country by 2020.
153
154
Thesis 8:
Battery technology
A completely new battery technology has made a
breakthrough, replacing the current conventional lithium-ion batteries.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
CE
6
21
9
9
47
50
5
17
13
46
31
15
8
M
LUXE
MB
22
IU
LG
OU
49
BE
RG
26
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 9%
by 2020: 37%
by 2030: 29%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 75%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 16%
probably never: 1%
75% of the experts polled anticipate that a completely new bat-
≥ 50% of experts
tery technology will have become established by 2030. 16%
40-49%
expect this to happen only in the distant future. However there
20-39%
are significant differences between the countries. Whilst in Lux-
10-19%
embourg 69% of respondents believe in the possibility of a new
< 10%
technology by 2030, in France 89% are convinced of this.
Remainder for
In Germany 75% of the experts think innovation is possible by
100%: don't know
2030 and in Belgium 77% do. A key point is where this new battery technology will be developed until it is ready for the market.
The Asian countries and the USA are also interested in further
development to increase market penetration of electric vehicles.
In addition, this new technology needs to be more cost-effective
in order to be viable for mass production.
155
enovos trendwatch
Thesis 9:
Fuel cell technology
Fuel cell technology, as it is called, is ready for the
market and affordable and increases the range of
electric vehicles.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
CE
13
18
LUXE
MB
31
13
31
25
28
8
6
39
39
15
8
M
13
44
IU
LG
OU
31
BE
RG
11
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 4%
by 2020: 29%
by 2030: 34%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 67%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 15%
probably never: 10%
67% of the experts expect that fuel cell technology will be ready
≥ 40% of experts
for the market and affordable by 2030. A third of the experts
30-39%
even think this is realistic by 2020 and 44% of the French experts
20-29%
between 2020 and 2030. As this technology significantly increas-
10-19%
es the range of electric vehicles, when it is ready for the market
< 10%
and if the price is competitive, it will be able to provide an impor-
Remainder for
tant alternative to lithium-ion batteries.
100%: don't know
In his study, A.T. Kearney does not anticipate a broad use of fuel
cells in passenger cars before 2030 unless hydrogen could become
a storage material for renewable energies.
In 2012, as part of the EU project MobyPost, ten electric vehicles
operated by hydrogen fuel cells were developed for the French
postal service and are now being tested.
156
Thesis 10:
drive technologies
In 2020 electric vehicles are mostly fitted with plugin hybrid drives.
13%
5% 8%
13%
22%
17%
36%
53%
Luxembourg
51%
GERMANY
Battery-only electric vehicle
Range extender*
28%
8%
17%
31%
62%
39%
belgium
france
Plug-in hybrid*
Other drive technologies
As confirmed by other studies, 51% of the experts consider plug-
*Range extender
in hybrids to be the preferred drive technology after 2020. The
Vehicles with electric motors
majority of experts (51%) anticipate that by 2020 the majority of
as the primary drive and a
electric vehicles will be fitted with the plug-in hybrid drive, while
small internal combustion
29% believe that the range extender will be the drive technology
engine which can be used to
used in electric vehicles.
recharge the battery during
Battery-only electric vehicles will not play any major role even in
the journey
the medium term. Only in France do 17% of the experts anticipate
that this will be the main drive in electric vehicles.
*Plug-in hybrid
Other drive types such as the fuel cell will only be of minor impor-
A full hybrid with a battery
tance even by 2020.
which can be charged from
the grid
157
enovos trendwatch
Thesis 11:
Electric vehicles as electricity storage devices
Thanks to optimised battery technology, electric
vehicles will also be able to be used as electrical
storage devices without any losses.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
13
CE
11
15
36
16
28
34
33
8
3
11
23
39
23
M
LUXE
MB
22
IU
LG
OU
26
BE
RG
22
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 6%
by 2020: 35%
by 2030: 26%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 67%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 15%
probably never: 10%
67% of experts believe that by 2030 electric vehicles will have
≥ 40% of experts
become mobile electricity storage devices in the smart grid. An
30-39%
important aspect of electric vehicles is the possibility of function-
20-29%
ing as an electricity storage device for renewable energies in in-
10-19%
telligent power grids which can deliver power back to the grid
< 10%
when required. Electric vehicles can therefore make an important
Remainder for
contribution to stabilising the grid and optimising the provision
100%: don't know
of electrical energy. However, this requires an efficient intelligent
control system which can precisely control and bill the bidirectional current flow.
Two thirds of the experts polled (67%) in all four countries think
that, by 2030, electric vehicles will also be able to be used as
power storage devices without losses. In Luxembourg 16% of the
experts expect this to happen after 2030, in France this is 22%
and in Germany 15%.
158
Thesis 12:
Charging stations in public car parks
Charging stations are installed in car parking areas
and multi-storey car parks across the country.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
CE
8
23
9
38
34
10
33
28
16
15
69
8
M
LUXE
MB
33
IU
LG
OU
44
BE
RG
13
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 16%
by 2020: 34%
by 2030: 35%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 85%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 8%
probably never: 3%
85% believe that charging stations will be installed in public car
≥ 60% of experts
parking areas and multi-storey car parks across the country
50-59%
by 2030. The expansion of the charging station infrastructure is
30-49%
evaluated very confidently by the experts. However, there are dif-
10-29%
ferences between countries.
< 10%
Whilst in Luxembourg 88%, in France 94% and in Belgium 92%
Remainder for
believe this to be so, those polled in Germany are somewhat more
100%: don't know
sceptical. 77% of German experts estimate that a country-wide
network will be available in public car parking areas and multistorey car parks by 2030 but 21% only see this being implemented
in the distant future or perhaps never.
159
enovos trendwatch
Thesis 13:
Fast-charging stations
Fast-charging stations which enable vehicle batteries to be charged while the owner is shopping or
visiting a restaurant are available nation-wide.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
8
CE
11
31
LUXE
MB
26
19
31
28
28
3
9
6
31
31
23
8
M
6
44
IU
LG
OU
33
BE
RG
6
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 9%
by 2020: 28%
by 2030: 33%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 70%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 20%
probably never: 7%
70% of the experts think that fast-charging stations will be
≥ 40% of experts
available nation-wide by 2030. The experts are also exception-
30-39%
ally optimistic about the spread of fast-charging stations which
20-29%
can reduce a charging process averaging six to eight hours to ap-
10-19%
prox. 30 minutes.
< 10%
Almost three quarters of the experts believe that modern fast-
Remainder for
charging stations will be available in their countries by 2030.
100%: don't know
However, 25% of the experts in Luxembourg and 39% in Germany
also believe that these fast-charging stations will not be available
country-wide by 2030.
160
Thesis 14:
Charging station operators
By 2020 will it be mineral oil companies, energy suppliers, car manufacturers or even the public sector
which have set up and are operating the most charging stations?
22%
13%
16%
5%
13%
11%
31%
22%
3%
67%
50%
39%
6%
Luxembourg
GERMANY
Mineral oil companies
Energy utility companies
Public sector
Other
france
By 2020 charging stations will mainly be operated by energy
utility companies. 53% of the experts think that by 2020 charging
stations will mainly be operated by energy utility companies. One
in two Luxembourg experts and as many as 67% of the German
experts polled are convinced of this. In France and Belgium 39%
and 38% of experts believe that the energy utility companies will
operate most of the charging stations.
But the public sector is also rated as an important market player
for 2020 by 17% of all the experts. 22% of the experts in Luxembourg and France even believe that the state will install the majority of charging stations.
12% of all experts still envisage the oil companies as being involved, but in Germany this figure is only 5% of those polled.
15%
17%
8%
38%
belgium
Car manufacturers
enovos trendwatch
3.
The change in private transport:
future mobility and transport
concepts
Private transport is facing its greatest change in decades. Demographic factors, a change of values in the younger generation
and the political and social pressure for environmentally friendly mobility lead to the development of new mobility and transport concepts which will have a decisive effect on the spread
of electric vehicles. The currently separate systems in vehicles,
road infrastructure and traffic control centres will cooperate in
the future. The vehicle connectivity which comprises GPS, video
entertainment, vehicle diagnostics and real time traffic data and
other information services will soon be a reality. As the importance of owning your own car declines, customised car sharing
options, intelligent solutions to public passenger transport and
other mobility concepts will provide a cost-effective alternative
to purchasing your own (electric) vehicle.
The countries studied have various projects and approaches
which contribute to implementing this change. These concepts
include not only electric cars but also two and three-wheeled
electric vehicles.
For example, in Luxembourg five municipal districts have
joined forces in a pilot project "Nordstad-eMovin" which provides
residents with an e-car and e-bike sharing system with the relevant network of charging stations.
In cities in Germany there are providers of flexible car sharing
systems which do not require fixed collection and return points
and provide the customers with a quick and simple booking system using mobile apps.
Financial incentive systems for electric vehicles are widespread in many countries. The French government only increased
the subsidy for buying electric and hybrid cars in July 2012. Tax
concessions have also been introduced. These financial incentives will remain in place in the medium term but in the long term
special parking zones and lanes could provide a privilege for the
owners of electric vehicles.
In the following section the experts assess the medium and
long-term implementation of these ideas.
161
162
Thesis 15:
Communicating with each other
Electric vehicles will be able to communicate
directly with other vehicles and the traffic infrastructure.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
CE
3
5
LUXE
MB
56
19
13
47
10
13
44
28
15
23
46
15
M
3
6
IU
LG
OU
23
BE
RG
17
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 15%
by 2020: 47%
by 2030: 20%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 82%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 13%
probably never: 2%
The ability of electric vehicles to communicate with other ve-
≥ 50% of experts
hicles or with the traffic infrastructure is anticipated by almost
40-49%
two thirds (62%) of the experts.
20-39%
Only in Belgium is this expected to be implemented by 2030.
10-19%
However, by this date it should be possible in all four countries,
< 10%
according to 82% of those polled. In Germany an impressive 89%
Remainder for
of experts are convinced that direct communication between the
100%: don't know
systems will be reality by 2030.
163
enovos trendwatch
Thesis 16:
Park & ride systems
The cities will have introduced a park & ride system
solely for electric vehicles.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
28
CE
39
LUXE
MB
26
13
22
9
22
3
6
15
39
8
31
M
34
28
IU
LG
OU
39
BE
RG
5
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 5%
by 2020: 18%
by 2030: 30%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 53%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 6%
probably never: 33%
53% of the experts anticipate park & ride systems by 2030. A
≥ 40% of experts
third of all experts believe them to be completely unlikely. The
30-39%
stock of electric vehicles in the public sector can be promoted
20-29%
by targeted measures (renewing fleets, etc.) or their use and
10-19%
spread in the commuter belt can be increased by implementing
< 10%
and encouraging park & ride systems.
Remainder for
In cities park & ride systems can be developed exclusively for
100%: don't know
electric vehicles. According to 53% of the experts questioned, this
model is realistic in the medium-term by 2030 in all countries, although it must be noted that a third assume that a system of this
kind is never likely to be available.
In Germany 68% of the experts can envisage a system like this by
2030 whereas in Luxembourg only 37% of the experts believe it
will happen. 39% of the French and Belgians think this scenario is
unlikely.
164
Thesis 17:
Saving profiles
Car-sharing users save their profile using intelligent systems and retrieve it in their electric vehicle.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
CE
5
13
54
3
6
25
41
18
9
50
15
11
8
54
15
M
LUXE
MB
11
IU
LG
OU
10
BE
RG
11
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 13%
by 2020: 49%
by 2030: 16%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 78%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 9%
probably never: 5%
62% of all the experts questioned believe that saving personal
≥ 50% of experts
profiles in car sharing schemes will happen by 2020. Whilst in
40-49%
Luxembourg one in two experts polled agree, in Germany 72%
20-39%
are convinced of this. Over half of all German, French and Bel-
10-19%
gian experts expect this option to be available as early as 2015
< 10%
to 2020.
Remainder for
The experts in Belgium are the most sceptical. 15% believe that
100%: don't know
this option is never likely to be available to the users of car-sharing
services.
165
enovos trendwatch
Thesis 18:
Mobility on demand
In cities "mobility on demand", i.e. car sharing with
mobile and straightforward booking and invoicing
systems has become established.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
8
CE
17
8
LUXE
MB
51
13
25
22
28
8
9
6
15
46
23
8
8
M
19
28
IU
LG
OU
26
BE
RG
11
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 9%
by 2020: 37%
by 2030: 26%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 72%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 10%
probably never: 13%
72% of experts anticipate the establishment of mobility on de-
≥ 50% of experts
mand by 2030, 46% by 2020. Mobility on demand systems differ
40-49%
from conventional car-sharing systems by offering the customer
20-39%
a straightforward booking system using a mobile app and there
10-19%
are no fixed locations for the cars. Instead, parking zones are pro-
< 10%
vided which usually cover several streets so that the user can park
Remainder for
the vehicle in a place which is most convenient for them.
100%: don't know
37% of experts anticipate that this will happen by 2020 and just
under three quarters that it will be in place by 2030. In Luxembourg and France the experts are a little more cautious. 56% and
62% respectively only envisage this happening by 2030.
166
Thesis 19:
Scrapping premium
A scrapping premium will be paid for cars with
internal combustion engines.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
36
CE
28
23
LUXE
MB
10
3
16
3
11
15
11
19
8
46
M
33
22
IU
LG
OU
26
BE
RG
11
15
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 10%
by 2020: 7%
by 2030: 21%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 38%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 13%
probably never: 33%
The experts are not unanimous about this. 17% believe a scrap-
≥ 40% of experts
ping premium for conventional vehicles by 2020 to be possible,
30-39%
21% in the period between 2020 and 2030. We also asked the
20-29%
experts whether a scrapping premium for cars with internal com-
10-19%
bustion engines will be introduced which would indirectly subsi-
< 10%
dise the purchase of electric vehicles. The experts believe this to
Remainder for
be unlikely, or only possible in the distant future.
100%: don't know
33% of the experts believe that a scrapping premium of this kind is
never likely to be introduced, while in Belgium this figure is as high
as 46%. 13% can imagine it happening in the period after 2030.
However, 38% do believe that there will be a scrapping premium
for cars with internal combustion engine by 2030. In France 44%
of the experts can envisage this happening.
167
enovos trendwatch
Thesis 20:
Free parking zones and special traffic lanes
Instead of tax incentives and purchase subsidies,
electric vehicles will only be rewarded with free
parking zones and special traffic lanes.
G
FRA
N
NY
MA
R
E
33
CE
11
13
23
13
16
31
33
17
22
15
15
46
23
M
LUXE
MB
17
IU
LG
OU
28
BE
RG
17
ALL COUNTRIES
by 2015: 12%
by 2020: 30%
by 2030: 22%
probably never
after 2030
by 2030: 64%
by 2030
by 2020
by 2015
after 2030: 8%
probably never: 21%
64% of all those polled believe that by 2030 the financial incen-
≥ 40% of experts
tives will be removed and electric vehicles will only be rewarded
30-39%
with special parking zones and traffic lanes. 29% of the experts
20-29%
only expect this to happen in the distant future or never.
10-19%
46% of the German experts only think this might happen in the
< 10%
distant future or believe it is unlikely. This is explained by the fact
Remainder for
that Germany is the only country of those under consideration
100%: don't know
where electric cars are not subsidised by the government.
This point is evaluated quite differently in Belgium and France.
Here 61% of the Belgian experts and 50% of the French ones think
it possible that special traffic lanes and free parking zones will be
available for electric vehicles by 2020.
168
4.
electromobility 2020
Thesis 21: Life cycle assessment
In 2020 the electric car will have a poorer life
6%
cycle assessment than the car with an internal
combustion engine.
31%
Luxembourg
France
15%
26%
Belgium
Germany
Thesis 22: Status symbol
44%
41% 67% 46%
In 2020 the car will no longer be a status symbol
for young adults.
France
Luxembourg
Belgium
Germany
Thesis 23: Private car ownership
In 2020, owning your own car will still be more
important for city dwellers than using new mobility concepts with electric vehicles, such as
car sharing or park & ride schemes.
50%
63% 54% 46%
France
Luxembourg
Germany
Percentage in agreement | Base: 102 respondents
Belgium
enovos trendwatch
23% of the experts do not believe that electric vehicles will
be more environmentally friendly by 2020 than cars with internal combustion engines, with above-average percentages
of Luxembourg (31%) and German (26%) experts holding this
opinion. Electric vehicles per se are not better for the environment than vehicles with petrol or diesel engines. Charging pillars
are not automatically supplied with electricity from renewable
sources and, if the calculations are based on the whole energy
combustion chain (well-to-wheel), then the CO2 emissions from
electric cars are currently a long way from being zero.
The experts are divided on this. 52% believe that the younger generation is changing, but 46% think the opposite and
believe that the car will remain a status symbol.The car has
served as a symbol of freedom and independence for decades.
Whether it will still be a classic status symbol for the generation of young adults in 2020 is viewed differently in the different countries.
In Luxembourg the majority of experts questioned (59%) think
that the car will remain a status symbol whereas two thirds of
the German experts anticipate that the new generation will no
longer view it that way.
In 2020 owning your own car remains more important for
55% of those polled. Even if the car itself becomes less important as a status symbol, private ownership continues to be
more important than using new mobility concepts.
Over half of all experts agreed with this, in Luxembourg as
many as 63%. Only in Belgium are the majority of experts (54%)
convinced that personal ownership will not be so important.
169
170
Thesis 24: Two and three-wheeled
electric vehicles
In 2020, although electrically driven two and
three-wheeled vehicles replace cars in towns
and cities they do not replace traditional bicycles.
34 %
Luxembourg
17 %
France
62 %
62 %
Belgium
Germany
Thesis 25: Drop in sales of private
vehicles
By 2020, new mobility options such as car sharing
or intermodal systems with a variety of modes of
transport will have led to a 30% drop in sales of
private vehicles.
28 %
Luxembourg
50 %
23 %
46 %
France
Germany
Belgium
enovos trendwatch
51% of the experts believe that electrically driven two and
three-wheeled vehicles will replace traditional bicycles but
not cars by 2020. Besides electric cars, electrically driven
two and three-wheeled vehicles will be in use. Two-wheeled
vehicles in particular, what are known as pedelecs, are demonstrating a growing demand. According to the Zweirad-Industrie-Verband e.V. (ZIV), there are now around one million
Pedelecs/e-bikes in Germany while almost 40,000 e-bikes
have been sold in France in the last few years.
45% of the experts anticipate that these electric two ad threewheeled vehicles will replace cars but not traditional bicycles
by 2020. In France only 17% agree with this whereas in Belgium
and Germany 62% of experts do so.
Only around a third of the experts polled (32%) in the four
countries think that new mobility concepts will lead to a 30%
reduction in the sale of private vehicles by 2020. This opinion
is held by 23% in Germany and 28% in Luxembourg. In France
and Belgium the experts are undecided as to whether new mobility concepts will have an effect on car sales or not.
171
172
Thesis 26: Urban congestion charge
Cities which introduce a congestion charge will
reduce the volume of traffic by 25% by 2020.
56%
Luxembourg
56%
France
69%
44%
Germany
Belgium
Thesis 27: Manufacturing costs
In 2020 the production costs of an electric vehicle will be 60% higher than those of a conventional vehicle.
28%
13%
Germany
Luxembourg
11%
France
39%
Belgium
enovos trendwatch
53% of the experts believe that an urban congestion charge
will noticeably reduce the traffic volume by 2020. The introduction of an urban congestion charge in cities and its anticipated effect on the volume of traffic is being discussed in
many places. In London, one of the first European cities with
a congestion charging scheme, the volume of traffic was reduced by 10-15%.
Half of the experts questioned believe that the volume of traffic in cities will be reduced by a quarter in 2020 through an urban congestion charge. The Belgian experts (69%), the Luxembourgers and the French (both 56%) are particularly convinced
of this. In Germany only 44% agree with this statement. The
majority (56%) cannot imagine this happening there.
69% of the experts think that the production costs of electric
vehicles in 2020 will no longer be 60% higher than those of
conventional vehicles. The respondents are optimistic about
the way that manufacturing costs for electric vehicles will develop. Only 22% believe that in 2020 the production costs of
an electric vehicle will still be approx. 60% higher than for a
conventional vehicle.
In France 89% expect there to be a change, in Luxembourg this
figure is 87% and in Germany 72%.
173
174
5.
drivers for electric vehicles and modern
mobility concepts
A competitive market price, low maintenance
Internationally harmonised stand-
and operational costs and a country-wide
ards and norms: 79% of all experts and
charging infrastructure are the most impor-
84% of the experts in Luxembourg believe
tant drivers for the successful market devel-
that internationally harmonised standards and
opment of electric vehicles.
norms contribute significantly to the market
How many experts assess particular driv-
development of electric vehicles. In France
ers for the large-scale spread of electric ve-
only 61% of the experts agree with this, where-
hicles as "very important" and "important"?
as in Belgium all those questioned do (100%).
The following presentation focuses on this.
Environmental compatibility: Although
the environmental compatibility of electric
Competitive market price: 95%
vehicles is currently an important issue and is
of the experts believe that a competitive mar-
cited as a decisive promotional aspect, in this
ket price for electric vehicles is a crucial driver
survey "only" 76% of the experts agree that
for electromobility. In Luxembourg 91% of the
this is an important driver. This aspect is more
experts agree with this, in France the experts
important in Luxembourg (84%) and Germany
are unanimous on this point (100%).
(82%) than in France (67%) and Belgium (46%).
Low
operating
Social acceptance and social recog-
costs: 91% of the experts polled think that
nition: Whilst at an international level 73%
low maintenance and operating costs are an
of the experts consider this aspect to be very
important driver for the market penetration of
important or important, in Belgium the figure
electric vehicles. The experts in Belgium rate
is as high as 85% whereas in France it is only
this factor as less crucial. 69% agree with it.
44%.
Country-wide
infrastruc-
Low noise pollution: The low noise pollu-
maintenance
and
charging
ture: 88% of the experts view a country-wide
tion of electric vehicles is only seen as an im-
charging infrastructure as an important driver.
portant driver by just over half of the experts
In Luxembourg this figure is as high as 97%,
(51%). In Belgium 54% of the experts and in
more than for the competitive market price or
Luxembourg 53% agree with this.
the running costs.
Low tax burden and insurance premiums: 81% of all experts questioned view low
taxes and insurance premiums as an important
driver. This factor is critical for all experts in
Belgium (100%), but only for 69% in Germany.
175
enovos trendwatch
luxembourg
germany
france
belgium
95%
Competitive market price
for electric vehicles
91%
97%
100%
92%
91%
Low maintenance
and operating costs for
94%
92%
100%
69%
electric vehicles
88%
Country-wide
charging infrastructure
97%
77%
94%
92%
81%
Low tax burden and
insurance premiums
88%
69%
83%
100%
79% Internationally harmonised
84%
74%
61%
100%
standards and norms
76%
Low or no carbon dioxide
emissions, i.e. very
environmentally friendly
84%
82%
67%
46%
73%
Social acceptance
and recognition
in society
72%
82%
44%
85%
51%
Low noise pollution
from electric vehicles
53%
49%
50%
54%
All countries
Only data for the categories "very important" and "important"
176
6.
barriers for electric vehicles and
modern mobility concepts
High purchase costs, short range and the limited life of the battery count as important barriers.
How many experts view disadvantages as barriers which are a
"severe obstacle to" or "obstacle to" the country-wide introduction of electric vehicles? The following presentation focuses on
this issue.
High purchase costs: Almost all experts (99%) view the currently high purchase costs for electric vehicles as a significant barrier to successful market penetration.
Short range: The short range of a maximum of 200 km is also
seen as an obstacle by 81% of all experts and as many as 94% of the
experts in Luxembourg.
Technical problems: 78% of all experts view the technical
problems, such as the limited battery life, as a significant barrier
for electric vehicles. 94% of the experts in Luxembourg assess
this factor as critical whilst in Germany and Belgium the figure is
69%.
Lack of harmonised technical standards: 70% of all experts but 84% of the experts in Luxembourg believe that a lack of
harmonised standards for interfaces and other technical components impede the further development of electric vehicles. 61% of
the experts in France agree with this.
Far fewer experts (51% and 38% respectively) assessed the inadequately resolved safety issues such as fire and explosion protection and the low maximum speed in electric vehicles as being
important obstacles.
It should be noted here that the experts from Luxembourg
had a tendency to assess these factors as more important than
those from the neighbouring countries.
177
enovos trendwatch
99%
high purchase costs
luxembourg
germany
france
belgium
100%
98%
100%
100%
81%
Short range
of maximum 200 km
94%
72%
78%
85%
78%
Technical problems,
for example limited
battery life
94%
69%
72%
69%
70%
Lack of harmonised
technical standards
84%
62%
61%
69%
51%
Inadequately resolved
safety issues, such as fire
or explosion protection
75%
33%
44%
54%
38%
Low maximum speed
59%
18%
45%
39%
All countries
Only data for the categories
"severe obstacle to" and "obstacle to"
APPENDIX
178
enovos trendwatch
survey fact file
authors and project team
Partners
bibliography
legal notice
179
180
appendix
survey fact file
Methods:
Structure of the expert interviews:
Telephone interviews
158 expert interviews on the topics of
in Germany and France;
Smart Energy | The Energy Transition and
in Belgium with the additional option of filling
Smart Grid – Smart Meter | Intelligent Net-
out an online questionnaire;
works and Meters
Luxembourg: only online interviews
115 expert interviews on the topics of
Language
Smart Home – Smart Building | Energy
Luxembourg: French and English
Efficiency in Buildings
Germany: German
France: French
Belgium: French and English
102 expert interviews on the topic of
Smart Mobility | Electric Vehicles and
Modern Mobility Concepts
Period of survey:
13 September 2012 to 12 October 2012
25% of the interviews were
carried out in Luxembourg,
Choice of experts:
39% in Germany,
We chose representatives from the fields of
15% in France and
business, government and academia from the
21% in Belgium.
countries and networks of the project partners
who were personally invited to participate
Survey topics:
based on their knowledge and experience in
27 theses and questions on the subject of
the areas under study.
Smart Energy | The Energy Transition and
Smart Grid – Smart Meter | Intelligent Net-
The team of experts is put together from the
works and Meters
following fields and organisations:
Energy industry, information and communi-
29 theses and questions on
cation technology, electrical engineering, real
Smart Home – Smart Building | Energy
estate and construction industry and facility
Efficiency in Buildings
management, key power-handling industries,
the automotive industry, research institutions,
22 theses and questions on
public agencies, government
Smart Mobility | Electric Vehicles
and Modern Mobility Concepts
authors and project team
Contacts:
Downloads and further information at:
Dr. Sabine Graumann
http://www.tns-infratest-bi.com
TNS Infratest Business Intelligence
http://www.enovos-future-summit.eu/
E-mail: [email protected]
Tel.: (+49) 89-5600-1221
181
enovos trendwatch
enovos luxembourg s.a.
PROJECT MANAGEMENT
erny huberty
head of Corporate Marketing
ENOVOS LUXEMBOURG S.A.
[email protected]
(+352) 2737-6711
RESPONSIBLE FOR
Enovos Trendwatch
RESPONSIBLE FOR
Enovos future summit
saskia marx
martine lorang
ProDUCT / PROJECT
Development & Management
[email protected]
(+352) 2737-6721
Marketing & Market Analysis
[email protected]
(+352) 2737-6714
tns infratest | tns Ilres
dr. sabine graumann
gerlinde mohr
nicola boyer
tns infratest
tns infratest
tns infratest
Martin Ebert
wiebke gümbel
charles margue
tns infratest
tns Ilres
tns Ilres
With the assistance of
Enovos International S.A
Creos Luxembourg S.A.
Dr. Peter Hamacher
Marc Adler
Michael Tomaszewski
Robert Graglia
Paul Hoffmann
Enovos Luxembourg S.A.
Daniel Peters
Yves Reckinger
appendix
Partners
enovos international s.a.
The Enovos Group was formed in 2009 from the fusion of three
companies and is managed by Enovos International S.A., an operational holding company with its headquarters in Luxembourg. It
coordinates the activities of the different incorporated companies.
As an important provider to selected Western European energy
markets and the holding company for the energy supplier Enovos
and the grid operator Creos, Enovos International's main aim is
to ensure the long-term competitive position of the group and its
healthy strategic development in the interests of its customers,
employees and shareholders. Enovos has the financial capability
to pursue ambitious investment projects in both conventional and
renewable energies.
As a leading energy company in Luxembourg, Germany, France
and Belgium, Enovos sees its role as the procurement, transmission and distribution of electricity, natural gas and renewable energies to public utilities, industrial enterprises and private households. Enovos aims to provide its customers with a real alternative
through integrated energy solutions based on an intelligent combination of energy products and services. Enovos is represented
along the entire value added chain from production to end client,
either directly or through subsidiaries and other holdings. The
company shareholders and management share a common vision
focused on innovation, sustainability and growth, and characterised by dedication to their customers, their employees and the
public. At Enovos past, present and future are united in one guiding principle: "Energy for today. Caring for tomorrow."
enovos luxembourg s.a.
Enovos Luxembourg S.A. and its subsidiaries Enovos Deutschland
SE, Enovos Energie Deutschland GmbH and LEO S.A. operate all
the business activities for the production, purchase and distribution of electricity and natural gas in Luxembourg and the adjacent
regions in Germany, Belgium and France.
Further information on Enovos is available on the company's website at www.enovos.eu
182
enovos trendwatch
Creos Luxembourg S.A.
Creos Luxembourg S.A. is the owner and operator of the natural gas and electricity grids in Luxembourg and also operates the
natural gas grid in Saarland and Rhineland-Palatinate via its subsidiary, Creos Deutschland GmbH. All the activities necessary for
developing the infrastructure for transporting and distributing
electricity and natural gas are divided between Creos Luxembourg
S.A. and Creos Deutschland GmbH.
Creos' objective is therefore to operate the grids in a non-dis-
criminatory manner for all current and potential suppliers and to
ensure access to the grid for all parties under equal conditions, as
far as the transmission and distribution of electricity and natural gas
are concerned. As the grid operator and manager, Creos is therefore responsible for the design, construction, expansion, maintenance and operation of electricity grids including high, medium
and low voltage power lines and natural gas grids including high,
medium and low pressure pipelines.
Further information on Creos is available on the company's website at www.creos.net
TNS Infratest and TNS ILRES
TNS Infratest is the German member and TNS Ilres the Luxembourg member of the TNS Group (Taylor Nelson Sofrès, London).
Both institutes are therefore part of the world's leading market
research and advisory company. TNS, which merged with Research International in February 2009, has been part of the Kantar Group - the world's largest network in the fields of research,
insight and consultancy - since October 2008. TNS Infratest and
TNS Ilres provide fact-based consulting for customers from the
energy, automotive and transport industries, the pharmaceuticals
market, information technology and new media, financial research,
consumer goods and media and policy and social research, thus
providing innovative management support for an information lead
and reliable decision-making.
Further information on TNS Infratest can be found on the company
website at www.tns-infratest-bi-com
Further information on TNS Ilres can be found on the company
website at www.tns-ilres.com
183
appendix
Kantar
Kantar is one of the world's leading market research and consulting
networks. Drawing on the combined expertise and competence
of its 13 specialised companies, Kantar aims to be the premium
global provider of strategic knowledge and inspiring insights for
its national and international clients. Over 28,000 staff in around
100 countries cover the entire spectrum of research and advisory
disciplines thus providing their customers with the most vital competitive information at every phase of the consumer cycle. Over
half of Fortune's top 500 companies are Kantar customers.
Further information is available at www.kantar.com
chambre de commerce
The chamber of commerce is a body governed by public law. As a
natural and independent advocate of the market economy and all
its participants, the chamber of commerce defends the interests
of the companies and supports their growth and development at
a national, European and international level. The chamber of commerce supports business interests by exerting an influence on the
development of new legal provisions. It participates in the preparation of numerous European and international surveys which relate
to both the economic trends and the structure of the Luxembourg
economy. In addition, the chamber of commerce sees itself as a
privileged service provider for its members and all those who are
interested in carrying out activities related to trade, commercial
services, finance and industry in Luxembourg. The Luxembourg
School for Commerce is the chamber of commerce's body responsible for further education which ensures top quality provision of
further training. The LSC initiates, develops and undertakes numerous training projects for initial training and further education,
including at university level.
Further information is available at www.cc.lu
184
enovos trendwatch
Fedil –
Business Federation Luxembourg
Fedil – Business Federation Luxembourg is the representative professional association for Luxembourg industry. It unites almost all
the large, medium and smaller industrial companies in the Grand
Duchy plus a steadily growing number of industrial service providers and companies in the information society (ICT). Currently Fedil
has around 550 companies and 17 sub-associations. At Community level Fedil belongs to the confederation of European industry,
BusinessEurope. It is involved in the activities of the international
work conference in Geneva in its capacity as representative of
Luxembourg's employers. Fedil is a member of the International
Organisation of Employers (IOE) and the Business and Industry
Advisory Committee (BIAC) to the OECD.
Fedil's objective is to protect and defend the professional inter-
ests of its members and to examine all economic and social issues
of relevance to Luxembourg employers.
Fedil performs tasks relating to information, support and ad-
vice for its members. These tasks take in all areas of economic
and social life: right of establishment, investment and innovation
assistance, employment law, wage agreements, social security, vocational training, export, etc.
Further information is available at www.fedil.lu
185
186
appendix
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enovos trendwatch
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