Mobilität der Zukunft- Schlüsselfaktoren und Chancen - e

Mobilität der ZukunftSchlüsselfaktoren und Chancen
Future MobilityKeyfactors and Chances
e-mobil BW Technologietag
2. Oktober 2013, Stuttgart
Dr. Ulrich Eichhorn
Geschäftsführer - Managing Director
Why Mobility?
• Mobility is a basic requirement and basic right of
humans
• Mobility is clearly and strongly correlated to wealth and
economic performance
GDP Germany 1970-2010
3000
2500
GDP [B€]
2000
1500
1000
500
0
400
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500
600
700
800 900
s [Bkm]
VDA PowerPoint
1000 1100 1200
Seite 2
Mobility as a System
Inputs
• Energy
• Area
• Resources
• ….
Mobility
Effects
• Economic
• Social
• Personal
• …..
Side-Effects
• Emissions
• Accidents
• …..
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VDA PowerPoint
Seite 3
Passenger and Goods Traffic
in Germany
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VDA PowerPoint
Seite 4
Traffic in Germany until 2025
1.400
1.200
1.000
Luftverkehr
Air traffic
[B. Pkm]
169%
800
Railroad
Eisenbahn
600
Öffentlicher
Public transport
Straßenpersonen
verkehr
Passenger car
Pkw-Verkehr
400
200
0
1970
1980
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2025
(Source: DiW, BMVBS, BVU/DLR/ISL)
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VDA PowerPoint
Seite 5
Goods traffic in Germany until 2025
1000
900
800
[B. tkm]
700
227%
Barge
Binnenschiff
600
500
Bahnen
Trains
400
Lkw
Commercial
vehicle
300
200
100
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2025
(Source: DiW, BMVBS, BVU/DLR/ISL)
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VDA PowerPoint
Seite 6
The story so far
Then …
… Now
Particulate matter: old and newer passenger vehicle
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VDA PowerPoint
Seite 7
"Smog"- Catastrophe in London 1952
Nelson-column in London 1952
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Nelson-column in London 2012
VDA PowerPoint
Seite 8
"Smog" in Los Angeles 1956
Smog in Los Angeles 1956
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Los Angeles Skyline 2009
VDA PowerPoint
Seite 9
"Smog" in Peking 2005
Beijing
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VDA PowerPoint
Seite 10
Achievments over the years
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Basis
2012
Dr.-Ing. Ulrich Eichhorn, VDA
Seite 11
Challenges & Chances
PM & NO2
„Vision Zero“
Emissions
Safety
CO2
Mobility
Efficiency
Energy
Partners
Car2X
Networking
Petrol/Diesel
CNG
Car2Car
Electricity
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VDA PowerPoint
Seite 12
Which is the right way?
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VDA PowerPoint
Seite 13
The fan-strategy of the
German automotive industry
Source: VDA
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VDA PowerPoint
Seite 14
Potentials for CO2-Savings:
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VDA PowerPoint
Seite 15
Electric Mobility – What is that?
Battery EV / BEV
Scope of Electric Mobility
according to NPE
Range Extender /
REEV
i.e. re-chargeable
from grid
Plug-in Hybrid /
PHEV
Full Hybrid /
HEV
Mild Hybrid /
HEV
Start/Stop
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VDA PowerPoint
Seite 16
Future Drive Trains
Tailored solutions on the market:
Long distance
Interurban
City
Internal Combustion Engine
Hybridisation
Plug-in/ range Extender
Battery electric
Fuel Cell
Quelle: Daimler AG
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VDA PowerPoint
Seite 17
Die Anfänge …..
Dr.-Ing. Ulrich Eichhorn, VDA
Total Cost of Ownership –
Risiko oder Chance für die Elektromobilität?
Seite 18
Porsche Panamera Sport
Tourismo
Audi A3 e-tron
Opel Ampera
BMWi3
Smart fortwo
electric drive
Ford CMAX
Dr.-Ing. Ulrich Eichhorn, VDA
VW e-Up
Elektromobilität heute Zwischenbilanz auf dem Weg zur
Marktdurchdringung
VW e-Golf
Seite 19
Networking & Communication
Smartphone
on Wheels?
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VDA PowerPoint
Seite 20
Car2X-Communication
Car2X- Communication between traffic
Danger Warning Message warn all vehicles
lights, Roadside-Units and vehicles
for upcoming obstacles on the road
Source: Vogel Business Media
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VDA PowerPoint
Source: simTD
Page
Seite 21
simTD – Sichere Intelligente Mobilität
Testfeld Deutschland
Obstacle Warning
Traffic Light Phase
Assistant
Traffic Light Circuit
Car-to-CarCommunication
Road Weather
Warning
Location based
Services
Building Lot
Informationen
Emergency Vehicle
Warning
Electronic Brake lights
Traffic Sign Assistant
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VDA PowerPoint
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Mobility Concepts: Car-Sharing &
Intermodality
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VDA PowerPoint
Page
Seite 23
Chances & Remaining Challenges
Inputs
• Energy:
„Fuels“ &
Drive for the
Future
Mobility
Value
• Mobility Concepts
• Networking
Side-Effects
• Particulates & NO2
• Accidents
• Remaining Accidents
• CO2
• Congestion
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VDA PowerPoint
Seite 24
Mobility as a System: Goal-Scenario
Inputs
•
Energy
•
Area
•
•
Resources
….
Mobility
Nutzen
 Economic
 Social
 Personal
 …..
Side-Effects
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VDA PowerPoint
Seite 25
Summary
• Many former problems are solved with
the latest generations of cars
• Areas for further progress are
•
•
•
•
•
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Last remaining pollutants
CO2-Reduction
Sustainable Energy-Sources for Transport
Networking and Car2X Communication
Mobility Concepts
VDA PowerPoint
Seite 26
Visions!
… and my own!
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VDA PowerPoint
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Not a Conflict!
… and my own!
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VDA PowerPoint
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