BPK Nordex SE Analyst Call FY 2013

Transcrição

Nordex SE
Annual Results 2013
Frankfurt
24 March 2014
AGENDA
1.
Highlights 2013
Dr. Jürgen Zeschky
2.
Market success and operating milestones
Dr. Jürgen Zeschky
3.
Business development and key figures 2013
Bernard Schäferbarthold
4.
Market outlook
Dr. Jürgen Zeschky
5.
Key priorities for action 2014
Dr. Jürgen Zeschky
6.
Outlook 2014
Dr. Jürgen Zeschky
7.
Q&A
8.
Appendix (Shareholder structure; financial calendar)
Annual Results 2013 | Nordex SE | 24 March 2014
2
AGENDA
1.
Highlights 2013
Dr. Jürgen Zeschky
2.
Dr. Jürgen Zeschky
3.
4.
Market outlook
Dr. Jürgen Zeschky
5.
Dr. Jürgen Zeschky
6.
Outlook 2014
Dr. Jürgen Zeschky
7.
Q&A
8.
3
1. HIGHLIGHTS 2013
 Strategic reorientation concluded – successful implementation of
the turnaround
 Results 2013 fully in line with guidance:
 Record order intake: +19 % to more than EUR 1.5 bn
 Record production and installation volume: Output well over 1.2 GW
 Record sales: +33 % to over EUR 1.4 bn
 EBIT margin of 3 %
 Working capital ratio reduced further to 2.2 %
 Positive operating cash flow and free cash flow
 Further improvements in cost structure
 Successful launch of Generation Delta
 Financing optimized and secured to 2017
 Best share price performance in the Prime Standard segment
4
2. SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MARKET SHARES IN
IMPORTANT FOCUS MARKETS
Overview of onshore market shares 2013 (2012)
UK
Norway
Sweden
Finland
Market share: 14% (11%)
Market share: 52% (32 %)
Market share:17% (-)
Germany
Ireland
Market share: 19% (36%)
Poland
Netherlands
Market share: 26% (-)
Romania
Market share: 12% (-)
EMEA:
Market share: 10.5% (5,2 %)
France
Global:
Market share: 3.7% (2,1 %)
Turkey
South Africa
Focus markets
Uruguay
First 77.5 MW installed
First 50.4 MW installed
Sources: Installation figures 2013 GWEC and EWEA vs. Nordex installations
5
2. RETURN TO THE TOP 10 OEMS
Onshore
market
share
EMEA:
~10.5%
Onshore
Market
share
global:
~3.7 %
Return to
TOP 10
OEMs
(previously in
2008)
 Global TOP 7
without Chinese
manufacturers
 One of just two
Western OEMs
with gains in
global market
share
 Largest market
share gains
among OEM‘s in
Europe
Sources: Installation figures 2013 GWEC and EWEA vs. Nordex installations; MAKE Consulting, BTM Navigant
6
2. SERVICE BUSINESS AS MARGIN AND GROWTH DRIVER
Selected Service KPIs 2012/2013
Contract renewal rate in %
+6pp.
77
71
 Sales increase by 17 % to EUR 140
mn with above-average margin
 Increase in order book by 27 % due to
improved contract renewal rate (+6
percentage points (pp))
2012
2013
Order book Service in EUR millions
+27%
626
494
31.12.2012
31.12.2013
 Availability of turbines improved by
0.3 pp to ~98 %1
 Improvement to third place in the BWE
service survey of manufacturers
 Expansion of service network in new
markets (Finland, Uruguay, South
Africa)
Based on approx. 3.000 turbines serviced regularly by
Nordex
1
7
2. OUTPUT 2013 AT RECORD LEVEL
Production and Installations 2011-2013 in MW
Turbine production
+48%
1,342
779
909
 Increase in global production
efficiency as a result of concentration
on the Rostock plants
 Significant increase in operating
output:
 Increase in production by 48 %
2011
2012
2013
Installations
+36%
1,254
970
919
2011
2012
 Increase in installations by 36%
- 506 turbines in 16 countries
 Installation of first large projects in
Uruguay and South Africa
 Major share of installations EMEA with
1.177 MW (94 %); 50 MW (4 %) in
Americas and 27 MW (2 %) in Asia
2013
8
2. FURTHER DECREASE IN PRODUCT COSTS AND
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Operational Excellence
Reduction in product costs „CORE 15“
 Significant improvement in project
management and supplier management
(punctuality and quality)
 Measures to reduce the cost of materials
– savings programme „WTG 100“
(Reduction of materials costs by EUR
100,000/turbine) - fully implemented
 Halving of unplanned expenses compared to
the previous year
 Improved interface management with the
Global Planning Office (GPO) as coordinator
between all stages of the operating value
chain – working capital ratio of 2.2 %
(2012: 8.7 %) as a tangible result
 Important milestones in connection with the
„CORE 15“ cost reduction programme
(„Cost Reduction of 15% by 2015“)
reached – cost of main component nacelle
2-3 % below budget
 Stronger focus on components „blades“ and
„high towers“ in 2014
9
2. COMPETITIVE PRODUCT PORTFOLIO FOR ALL WIND
CLASSES
Launch: November 2013
First turbine: Q4 2014e
R&D phase
Rotor
diameter
131 m
Delta N131/3000
Launch: February 2013
First turbine: Summer 2013
In series production
117 m
Delta N117/3000
Gamma N117/2400
Launch: February 2013
First turbine: Summer 2013
In series production
100 m
Gamma 100/2500
Delta N100/3300
90 m
Gamma N90/2500
6,0
6,5
7,0
7,5
8,0
8,5
9,0
9,5
10,0
Wind speed [m/s]
IEC 3a
IEC 2a
IEC 1a
10
2. SUCCESSFUL LAUNCH OF GENERATION DELTA
9x
February 2013
Launch of the N100/3300 and the
N117/3000 for IEC 1+2 locations
June 2013
Installation of the first three turbines
IEC Design Evaluation (DECS)
DIBt type certification
24x
11x
20x
19x
January 2014
Start of series production
March 2014
Order intake of >300 MW from
seven countries
6x
Installation
Order intake
11
AGENDA
1.
Highlights 2013
Dr. Jürgen Zeschky
2.
Dr. Jürgen Zeschky
3.
4.
Market outlook
Dr. Jürgen Zeschky
5.
Dr. Jürgen Zeschky
6.
Outlook 2014
Dr. Jürgen Zeschky
7.
Q&A
8.
12
3. CONTINUING STRONG MOMENTUM IN ORDER INTAKE
Order intake 2011 to 2013 (in EUR mn)
Order intake 2013 by region
+19%
APAC
1.503
America
7%
11%
1.268
1.107
EMEA
82%
2011
2012
2013
 Record order intake of EUR 1,503 mn (+19 % yoy)
 82 % from the EMEA core region; main markets: Germany, Turkey, Scandinavia, South Africa
 N117/2400 a best seller (share of ~50 %) - Generation Delta with a share of >10%
13
3. ORDER BOOK STRONG BASIS FOR 2014
Development of the firm order book 2011 – 2013 (in EUR mn)
+20%
1,259
1.049
698
2011
2012
2013
 Firm order book EUR 1,259 mn (31.12.2012: EUR 1,049 mn) supports 2014 sales target –
approx. 80 % of the order book will become sales in 2014
 EMEA accounts for >80% of the firm order book – continuing low importance of the Southern
Eurozone states (<5% )
 Conditional order book of EUR 935 mn
14
3. GROUP INCOME STATEMENT 2013
In EUR millions
2013
1,429.3
1,502.3
(1,163.0)
339.3
20121
1,075.3
1,100.9
(865.3)
235.6
∆ in %
32.9
36.5
34.4
44.0
Personnel costs
(153.2)
(140.2)
9.3
Other operating (expenses)/income
(102.5)
(87.2)
17.5
83.6
8.2
>100
(39.3)
(69.3)
(43.4)
44.3
(61.1)
n.a.
(26.1)
(24.0)
8.7
EBT
18.2
(85.1)
n.a.
Tax
(7.9)
(2.8)
(>100)
0
(6.5)
n.a.
10.3
(94.4)
n.a.
Sales
Total revenues
Cost of materials
Gross profit
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
Net financial result
Net loss from discontinued op.
Net profit

Significant sales increase by just under 33 %, above industry trend

Increase in the gross margin to 22.6 %, increase in structural costs below increase in output

First group net profit in two years as evidence of successful management of the turnaround
1
Group net result 2012 including one time effects of EUR 75 mn
15
3. IMPROVEMENT IN GROSS MARGIN AND PRODUCTIVITY
Development of gross margin
2012 – 2013 / 2015e (in %)
Gross profit per employee (in TEUR)
+43%
+2.4pp
+1.2pp
21.4
2012
22.6
2013
133
25.0
+4%
Target 2015e
89
93
2011
2012
2013

Improvement in gross margin to the target of >22.5% through the year – further increase
as a result of reductions in the cost of materials, project management efficiency, new
products

Significant increase in value added measured as gross profit/employee
16
3. OPERATING CASH FLOW AND FREE CASH FLOW
POSITIVE IN THE LAST TWO YEARS
Key figures cash flow statement 2012
Key figures cash flow statement 2013
in EUR mn
in EUR mn
Cash flow from operating
activities
141.1
Cash flow from operating
activities
98.1
Cash flow from investing
activities
(56.1)
Cash flow from investing
activities
(74.3)
Free cash flow
Cash flow from financing
activities
85.0
(21.0)
Free cash flow
23.8
Cash flow from financing
activities
44.1

Operating cash flow and free cash flow positive in the last two years – despite reorganisation
(2012) and increased investment spending (2013)

Decline in operating cash flow by just under 31 % due to moderate w/c-ratio decline and lower
Q4 prepayments, compared to last year

Investment spending focused on product development
17
3. POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT OF INVENTORIES AND
WORKING CAPITAL RATIO
Development of inventories (in EUR mn) and working capital ratio (in %) 2010 – 2013
EUR mn
400
310
273
275
275
279
281
250
200
40
37.3
350
300
%
W/C ratio in %
25.2
35
293
+18%
27.7
227
267
235
205
264
257
224
228
240
30
25
20
150
15
8.7
100
10
2.2
50
0
5
0
FY
2010
FY
2011
FY
2012
FY
2013

Continuing stringent working capital management and growing establishment of improved
processes – further reduction in working capital ratio by more than 6 percentage points to
2.2 %

Increase in inventories by 17.7% due to high project volume in the first half of 2014
18
3. GROUP BALANCE SHEET 2013
In EUR millions
2013
2012
Liquid funds
333.0
274.8
Current bank borrowings
Trade receivables and future
receivables
214.0
245.9
Net inventories
263.9
224.3
88.6
68.8
899.5
813.8
117.4
103.0
Capitalized R&D expenses
94.3
77.5
Bond1
Deferred tax assets
50,9
42.6
Other non-current assets
29.3
29.2
291,9
252.3
Other current assets
Current Assets
Property, plant, equipment
Non-current assets
Total assets

1,191.4
1,066.1
2013
2012
8.4
27.5
Trade payables
190.3
189.4
Other current liabilities
386.5
338.2
585.2
555.1
16.9
25.3
167.6
169.5
Deferred tax liabilities
32,9
16.5
Other non-current liabilities.
20.7
20.7
Non-current liabilities
238,1
232.0
Shareholders‘ equity
368.1
279.0
1,191.4
1,066.1
Current liabilities
Non-current bank borrowings
Total liabilities
Balance sheet significantly strengthened:

Increase in liquid funds by 21.2 %

Equity ratio increased to 30.9% (31.12.2012: 26.2 %)

Net liquidity increased to EUR 119.4 mn (31.12.2012: 29.6 mn)
1
Bond incl. interest
19
3. REFINANCING CONCLUDED SUCCESSFULLY
Financing – successful conclusion of capital measures as an important basis for the
confidence of customers, suppliers and banks in Nordex
Syndicated credit guarantee facility
 14 Banks
 Volume:
 Term:
EUR 550 mn
30 June 2017
 Adjustment of available credit
facilities
 Optimisation of financial result
Other components
 Successful equity issue (gross
proceeds EUR 73.5 mn)
 Agreement for R&D loan with
European Investment Bank (EIB) of
up to EUR 100 mn
 Adjustment of KfW loan (EUR 25
mn) to March 2017
Equity ratio >30 %
Financial basis established for further growth
Financing secured up to 2017
20
AGENDA
1.
Highlights 2013
Dr. Jürgen Zeschky
2.
Dr. Jürgen Zeschky
3.
4.
Market outlook
Dr. Jürgen Zeschky
5.
Dr. Jürgen Zeschky
6.
Outlook 2014
Dr. Jürgen Zeschky
7.
Q&A
8.
21
4. STEADY DEMAND GROWTH SUPPORTS THE
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE STRATEGY
Regional development
(New installations in GW)
Market overview
 Global growth of ~5 % CAGR
48
46
41
9
15
14
51
14
52
11
52
8
21
10
2011
13
9
35
4
17
11
10
19
12
2013
21
12
24
11
27
11
29
13
30
14
2015e
32
15
34
16
Asia-Pac.
55
RoW Europe
60
Americas
64
+5%
 EMEA: market potential >12 GW p.a. –
highest growth rates in African markets;
Nordex focus markets stable overall (7-8
GW p.a.)
 APAC: China the largest wind market;
growth markets Pakistan, Vietnam,
Thailand or the Philippines pushing
forward increase in renewable capacity
 America: Significant increase in the US
(>10 GW under construction) in 2014;
strong growth in LatAm
 Onshore turbines will remain dominant
technology in the medium term – grid
parity at an increasing number of
locations due to more efficient turbines
2020e
Sources: GWEC; AWEA; MAKE Consulting Q1 2014 Forecast March 2014
22
4. GERMANY WILL REMAIN A VOLUME MARKET IN THE
MEDIUM TERM, DESPITE THE EEG REFORM
Onshore Installations 2000 - 2013 (in MW)
Comparison of European renumeration levels
(in EUR ct/kWh)
3.180
2.997
EEG expansion
corridor between
2,400-2,600 MW
Netherlands
9,0
Germany (new)
8,9
Italy
Finland
France
Ireland
2000
2005
2010
2013
10,0
UK (FiT) from 2017
8,7
8,4
8,2
7,8
Current starting renumeration Germany:
EUR 9,9 EURct/kWh incl. Repowering/SDL
Current UK renumeration depends on wholesale and
certificate prices
 The proposed expansion corridor between 2,400 – 2,600 MW has been significantly
exceeded only twice (in 2002 und 2013 with ≥3000 MW) since the introduction of the EEG
 A renumeration of approx. EUR 8.9 ct/kWh is in line with the levels in various Nordex
focus markets with a fixed feed-in tariff
Sources: DEWI; GWEC; Nx Research; GBP from 2017 = 90 GBP/MWh
23
5. CONTINUING STRINGENT IMPLEMENTATION OF THE
STRATEGY WITH A STRONG FOCUS ON COSTS
2012
•Introduction of a Project Management Office for a structured
approach to the operational implementation of strategy
•Transparency and efficiency
2013
•Successful implementation of measures
•Detailled management of turnaround
•Significant improvement in important KPIs
2014
•Continuation and optimisation of organisation
•Definition of more than 20 strategic initiatives along the value
chain
•Strong focus on earnings quality and „Operational Excellence“
Targets 2015
24
5. PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT AS THE BASIS FOR GROWTH
AND EARNINGS QUALITY
Research & Development – Reduction in the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) as the
basis for sustainable growth
€ /MWh
110
100
Measures
Cost of Energy
90
LCOE [€/MWh]
80
70
 Generation Gamma:
Light wind
IEC3a
Moderate wind
IEC2a
60
Target
Corridor
Corridor
„Grid
Parity“
Strong wind
IEC1a
50
40
 Further optimisation and cuts in
material costs
 Generation Delta:
 Start of series production
30
20
 Production and installation of the
N131/3000
10
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Lever for a further improvement in earnings quality
Focus of current and future investment
25
5. OPTIMISATION OF THE MANUFACTURING ORGANISATION
– BUSINESS UNIT BLADES
Centre for rotor blades
Blade assembly Rostock (GVZ)
Strategic Partners / Suppliers
 „Lead assembly“ to provide 20-30 %
of own requirements
 Development partners with skills in
carbon technology
 Focus on new generation blade types
as well as blades with the Anti-IcingSystem
 „Build-to-Print“
 Development of benchmark standards
for production, processes and quality
for inhouse and third-party
manufacturing
 Multiple supplier strategy with
international footprint to cover
regional requirements
Centralized responsibility for production, purchasing, quality management
and supply chain management
26
6. OUTLOOK 2014

Good start into the new year – strong order intake from various markets (Germany, Finland,
France, Netherlands, UK)

Installed capacity exceeded 10 GW for the first time in early March 2014

Strong focus on improvement in gross margin and earnings quality

Consistent implementation of strategic measures with respect to sales strategy,
Operational Excellence, „CORE 15“ and product development

R&D activities determine investment spending and secure medium-term targets
Order intake
EUR 1.4 – 1.6 bn
Sales
EUR 1.4 – 1.5 bn
EBIT margin
3.5 – 4.5 %
Operating cash flow
positive
Working capital ratio
5% [+/- 5 pp]
Investment
Slight increase
27
7. TIME FOR YOUR QUESTIONS
28
8. APPENDIX: SHAREHOLDER STRUCTURE NORDEX SE
SKion/momentum capital
22.79%
DWS 3.06%
BlackRock 3.02%
Free
float
71.13%
Based on 80.882.447 shares, as at March 2014
29
8. APPENDIX: FINANCIAL CALENDAR
As at March 2014
Date
Event
24 March
Annual results conference (Frankfurt) and analyst call FY 2013
25/26 March
Roadshow London, Zürich
14 May
Analyst call Q1 2014
3 June
Annual General Meeting (Rostock)
11-13 June
Deutsche Bank GSAC 2014 (Berlin)
13 August
Analyst call H1 2014
25 September
Macquarie Alternative Energy Conference (London)
13 November
Analyst call Q3 2014
30
DISCLAIMER
The targeted goals in this document reflect forward looking
statements which are based solely on estimates and not on
predictable risks.
Should the estimates with regard to the successful integration
of acquisitions and the future internal growth of the company
not to be realized or if other unpredictable risks should arise, it
cannot be ruled out that the actual financial results of the
company will differ substantially from the targeted goals as laid
out in this document.
In this respect Nordex SE is unable to give a guarantee that
the actual financial results of the company will not differ from
any forecasts or guidance given.
31
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION.
Nordex SE
Langenhorner Chaussee 600, 22419 Hamburg, Germany
Phone:
+49 (0)40 30030 1000
Fax:
+49 (0)40 30030 1333
eMail:
[email protected]
[email protected]
NDX1
ISIN:
WKN:
DE000A0D6554
A0D655
www.nordex-online.com
32

BPK Nordex SE Analyst Call FY 2013

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