BR Pharma - Brasil Pharma

Brasil Pharma
Brazil | Outperform
May 15, 2013 | 1Q13 Review
1Q13 Weak on Lower Gross Margins
Our take: 1Q13 results were weaker than expected, fully explained by lower gross margins. Despite the
worries over SSS and top-line deceleration evident in these results and for other players in the sector, it
was the weak gross margin (28.6% vs. our 30.5% estimate) that was the main negative surprise.
Recurring SG&A was in line with expectations, although with a different mix (higher selling, lower G&A
expenses), but a disappointing recurring adjusted EBITDA margin of 3.9% (vs. our 5.5% estimate) was
driven by the lower gross margin.
Ticker (local)
BPHA3
Target Price - BRL(YE13)
16.9
Ticker (ADR)
n.a.
Target Price - USD(YE13)
n.a.
Stock Data
Current price
BRL
12.75
%
32.8
Upside (YE13)
The results: In a context of low demand and a tough calendar impact (three fewer working days), SSS
was weak as expected (10.8% total SSS vs. 11.3% estimate and mature store SSS of 4.3%). On the
positive side, the company reported a sizeable 12.6% increase in average ticket, with better mix as the
main highlight. As mentioned above, gross margin disappointed (28.6% vs. our 30.5% estimate).
Management did not fully pass through to end-consumers the reduction in industry discounts (mostly for
generics) because it did not want to put pressure on already weak sales performance. Management also
cited fiercer competition in specific markets, notably Brasilia and Salvador, as well as lower margins
associated with the strategy to increase the average ticket. SG&A expenses were in line with our
estimate despite a slightly different mix – higher selling expenses (rents, personnel and two new
distributions centers) and lower G&A (we expense stock options, not considering them non-recurring).
All in, adjusted recurring EBITDA reached BRL 31.9 million with a 3.9% margin, 28% and 1.6 pp below
our expectations. Lower operational results and much higher financial expenses (BRL 19 million vs. our
BRL 12 million estimate) drove adjusted net income materially below our estimates.
52 Week high/low
BRL
15.65/9.1
Shares outstanding
th
257,385
Market capitalization
BRL m
3,282
3-mth avg daily vol.
BRL m
12
Performance (%)
1m
12m
Absolute
-1.9
21.5
Vs. Ibovespa
-1.0
32.7
Company x Ibovespa
160
140
120
Gross Revenue
Gross Profit
Gross Margin
Adj EBITDA (recurring)
Adj EBITDA Margin
Adj Net income
1Q13A
1Q13E
A/E
1Q12
YoY
814.7
805.0
1.2%
699.3
16.5%
232.9
245.5
-5.1%
211.0
10.4%
28.6%
30.5%
(1.9) p.p.
30.2%
(1.6) p.p.
31.9
44.2
-27.7%
35.3
-9.6%
3.9%
5.5%
(1.6) p.p.
5.1%
(1.1) p.p.
-0.2
12.0
n.m
3.4
n.m.
BPHA3
Source: Itaú BBA
Conference Call Details:
Wednesday, 15 May 2013
English
15:00 am (Brazil) | 14:00 am (EST)
Dial In US: +1 516 300 1066
Source: Itaú BBA. Adjusted for non-recurring but expensing stock options.
Trading Multiples
Year
2012e
2013e
2014e
2015e
2016e
2017e
EV/EBITDA
18.7
12.4
9.7
8.1
6.7
5.5
P/E
46.9
24.5
18.0
15.0
12.5
10.2
FCFE yield (%)
-9.4
3.6
3.1
4.0
4.9
6.3
CONSUMER TEAM
Juliana Rozenbaum, CFA
+55-11-3073-3035
[email protected]
Source: Itaú BBA
Vitor Paschoal
+55-11-3073-3039
[email protected]
Please refer to page 2 of this report for important disclosures, analyst certifications and additional information. Itaú BBA does and seeks to do
business with Companies covered in this research report. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that
could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should not consider this report as the sole factor in making their investment decision.
Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. is the securities arm of Itaú Unibanco Group. Itaú BBA is a
registered mark used by Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A.
Read this report in:
4 min: Full
Apr-13
May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
IBOV
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Jun-12
80
Portuguese
11:30 am (Brazil) | 10:30 am (EST)
Dial In Brazil: +55 11 3301 3000
Brasil Pharma – 1Q13 Results
BRL m
100
May-12
Investment implications: We expect a negative reaction to the weakness in results. Along with the
1Q13 deceleration, the weak gross margins were the main negative highlight. However, we see no
macro reasons for the weakness to linger and expect sales to improve in 2Q13. With better sales,
margin expansion will likely be possible again, thus affording better visibility into the synergy gains that
underlie our positive view on the investment story. That said, the limited operational leverage and a
more cautious approach to integration given SAP implementation and lower margins in the last couple of
quarter provide room for a downward revision in our estimates. For now, we reiterate our outperform
recommendation and YE13 target price of BRL 16.9.
Brazil Pharma – May 15, 2013
DISCLAIMER
Itaú BBA is a brand name of Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A.
Ratings: Definitions, Dispersion and Banking Relationships
Ratings (1)
Definition (2)
Coverage (3)
Banking
Relationship (4)
Outperform
The analyst expects the stock to perform better than
market average.
43%
38%
Market Perform
The analyst expects the stock to perform in line with
market average.
41%
36%
Underperform
The analyst expects the stock to perform below
market average.
16%
15%
1. The ratings used herein (Outperform, Market Perform and Underperform) correspond approximately to Buy, Hold and Sell,
respectively.
2. Ratings reflect the analyst’s assessment of the stock price performance in the medium term compared with market
average. Recommendations will remain valid until the analyst changes the rating, which may happen as a result of news or
simply due to a change in the stock price (there is no defined time horizon). Companies are grouped into industries,
according to their similarities. The industries are: (i) Banking & Financial Services, (ii) Consumer Goods & Retail + Food &
Beverage, (iii) Healthcare + Education, (iv) Steel & Mining + Pulp & Paper, (v) Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals + Agribusiness,
(vi) Real Estate, (vii) Telecommunications, Media and Technology, (viii) Transportation, Manufacturing and Logistics, (ix)
Utilities, and (x) Equity Strategy.
3. Percentage of companies covered by Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. within this rating category.
4. Percentage of companies within this rating category, for which Itaú Unibanco S.A. or any of its affiliated companies
provided investment banking services over the last 12 (twelve) months, or which may be provided during the next 3 (three)
months.
Third Party Disclosures
Companies Mentioned
Ticker
BR PHARMA ON
Recent Price
BPHA3
1
X
12.75
Disclosure Items
3
4
X
2
X
5
6
-
1 Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliated companies have managed or co-managed a public offer for the
companies analyzed in this report in the last 12 (twelve) months, for which they received compensation.
2. Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliated companies received compensation for the investment banking services
provided to the companies analyzed in this report in the last 12 (twelve) months, and expect to receive or intend to seek
compensation for such services to be provided to companies analyzed in this report in the next 3 (three) months.
3. Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliated companies were acting as market makers for the companies analyzed in
this report at the time this report was issued.
4. Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliated companies have acted as an underwriter of securities issued by the
companies analyzed in this report within the last 5 (five) years.
5. Itaú Corretora S.A. and/or its affiliated companies, and funds, portfolios and investment clubs managed by Itaú Corretora
de Valores S.A. beneficially own, directly or indirectly, 1% (one percent) or more of any class of common shares issued by
the companies analyzed in this report as of the end of last month.
6. The analyzed issuer(s) have a relevant interest in companies of the Itaú Unibanco Group.
09-Aug
28-Mar
BR PHARMA ON
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
Underperform
Market Perform
UR
Apr-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Feb-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
Outperform
Aug-12
Jun-12
Apr-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Feb-12
Dec-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Jun-11
0.0
May-11
2.0
Fair Value
Source: Itaú BBA
Itaú BBA
2
Brazil Pharma – May 15, 2013
Relevant Information
This report has been produced by Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A (“Itaú BBA”), a subsidiary of Itaú Unibanco S.A., regulated by the
Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil (CVM), and distributed by Itaú BBA or one of its affiliates (altogether, “Itaú Unibanco
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2.
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3.
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5.
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6.
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7.
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* Cost of a local call.
1.
Relevant Information – Analysts
Analysts
1.
Disclosure Items
1
2
3
4
5
Juliana Rozenbaum
X
X
X
X
Vitor Paschoal
X
X
X
X
The investment analysts involved in the preparation of this report are related to an individual who works for the issuer
object of this analysis report. The nature of this relationship is ....
2. The investment analysts, their spouses or companions, have a direct or indirect stake, in their names, in the capital stock
and/or other securities issued by the companies object of their analysis.
3. The Investment analysts, their spouses or companions, are directly or indirectly involved in the purchase, sale, disposal or
trading of securities that are the object of this report.
4. The investment analysts, their spouses or companions, have a direct or indirect financial interest in the issuing company of
the securities analyzed in this report.
5. The investment analysts, their spouses or companions, deal with shares of mutual funds which concentrate their
investments in the analyzed company or in the company’s industry, or in which they can directly or indirectly influence
their management or administration
Itaú BBA
3
Equities
Christian Egan - Global Head of Equities & ETD
Research
Carlos Constantini, CNPI - Head
+55-11-3073-3001
Equity Strategy
Carlos Constantini, CNPI - Head
Florian Tanzer, CNPI, LatAm
Pedro Maia, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3001
+55-11-3073-3025
+55-11-3073-3065
North Andean, Chile & Argentina Research
Ricardo Cavanagh, CFA
+56-2-2834-6784
Chile Research
Barbara Angerstein
Gustavo Fingeret
+56-2-2834-6297
+56-2-2834-6295
Agribusiness
Giovana Araújo, CNPI
Antonio Barreto, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3036
+55-11-3073-3060
Banking & Financial Services
Regina Longo Sanchez, CNPI
Thiago Bovolenta Batista, CFA
Alexandre Spada, CFA
+55-11-3073-3042
+55-11-3073-3043
+55-11-3073-3004
Capital Goods
Renata Faber, CNPI
Thais Cascello
+55-11-3073-3017
+55-11-3073-3019
Consumer Goods & Retail
Joaquin Ley, Mexico
Juliana Rozenbaum, CFA
Barbara Angerstein, Chile
Vitor Paschoal
+52-55-5262-0676
+55-11-3073-3035
+56-2-2834-6297
+55-11-3073-3039
Food & Beverage
Alexandre Miguel, CFA
Felipe Cruz, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3020
+55-11-3073-3007
Healthcare + Education
Thiago Macruz, CNPI
Victor Natal
+55-11-3073-3034
+55-11-3073-3014
[email protected]
Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals
[email protected] Paula Kovarsky, CNPI
[email protected] Diego Mendes, CNPI
[email protected]
Real Estate + Cement & Construction
David Lawant, CNPI
[email protected] Vivian Salomon, Mexico & Colombia
Enrico Trotta, CNPI
Roberto Barba
[email protected]
[email protected] Steel & Mining + Pulp & Paper
Marcos Assumpção, CFA
André Pinheiro, CNPI
[email protected]
[email protected] Telecommunications, Media & Technology
Gregorio Tomassi, Mexico
Susana Salaru, CNPI
[email protected] Ricardo Cavanagh, CFA, Argentina
[email protected] Gustavo Fingeret, Chile
[email protected]
Transportation , Infrastructure & Logistic
Renata Faber, CNPI
[email protected] Thais Cascello
[email protected] Renato Salomone, CNPI
Vivian Salomon
+55-11-3073-3027
+55-11-3073-3029
[email protected]
[email protected]
+55-11-3073-3037
+52-55-5262-0672
+55-11-3073-3064
+52-55-5262-0671
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
+55-11-3073-3021
+55-11-3073-3028
[email protected]
[email protected]
+52-55-5262-0675
+55-11-3073-3009
+54-11-5273-3593
+56-2-2834-6295
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
+55-11-3073-3017
+55-11-3073-3019
+52-55-5262-0674
+52-55-5262-0672
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Utilities
Marcos Severine, CNPI
Mariana Coelho, CNPI
Gabriel Laera, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3011
+55-11-3073-3024
+55-11-3073-3062
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Economics
[email protected] Mauricio Oreng
[email protected] Luiz Gustavo Cherman
Luka Barbosa
+55-11-3708-2807
+55-11-3708-2713
+55-11-3708-8932
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected] Retail Strategy
[email protected] Lucas Tambellini , CNPI
Marcello Rossi, CNPI
Fábio Perina, CNPI
Julia Moraes, CNPI
+55 11 3073-3023
+55-11-3073-3006
+55-11-3073-3431
+55-11-3073-3038
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
North America
Sales - North America
Adam Cherry - Head
Kahlil Adam, CFA
Flavia Stingelin, CFA
Carina Cassab Carreira
+1-212-710-6766
+1-212-710-6767
+1-212-710-6768
+1-212-710-6790
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
+44-20-7663-7845
+44-20-7663-7845
+44-20-7663-7845
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Equity Sales & Trading
Latin America
Sales - Latin America
Carlos Maggioli - Head
Flavia Stingelin, CFA
Márcia Sadzevicius
Rodrigo Ache
José Henrique Sapag Arvelos
José Dezene (Macro)
+55-11-3073-3300
+55-11-3073-3162
+55-11-3073-3330
+55-11-3073-3330
+55 11 3073-3330
+55-11-3073-3350
Sales Trading - Brazil
Carlos Maggioli - Head
Alec Cunningham
Aureo Bernardo
Pedro H. Rocha Sauma
Carlos Faria
+55-11-3073-3300
+55-11-3073-3310
+55-11-3073-3330
+55 11 3073-3330
+55-11-3073-3310
Trading - Brazil
Carlos Maggioli - Head
Cristiano Soares
Bruno Campos
Pedro Feres
Marco Barros
+55-11-3073-3300
+55-11-3073-3330
+55-11-3073-3310
+55-11-3073-3149
+55-11-3073-3310
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected] Europe, Middle East & Asia
Sales - Europe
Mark Fenton - Head
[email protected] Aneli Gonzalez, CFA
[email protected] Pedro Villa
[email protected]
[email protected] Sales - Japan
[email protected] Masafumi Nishimura
Sales - Hong Kong
Caio Galvão
[email protected]
[email protected] Sales Trading - North America
[email protected] Kevin Hard - Head
[email protected] Eric Krall
[email protected] Fernando Lasalvia
Colin Heath
Brad Marra
+813-3539-3856
[email protected]
+852-3657-2398
[email protected]
+1-212-710-6780
+1-212-710-6780
+1-212-710-6780
+1-212-710-6780
+1-212-710-6780
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
+55-11-3073-3657
+55-11-3073-3657
[email protected]
[email protected]
+55-11-3073-3310
+55-11-3073-3310
+55-11-3073-3310
+55-11-3073-3310
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
+55-11-3073-3340
+55-11-3073-3340
[email protected]
[email protected]
+55-11-3073-3211
[email protected]
+55 11 3073-3148
+55-11-3073-3145
+55 11 3073-3297
+55 11 3073-3290
+55 11 3073-3110
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Futures, Derivatives & Stock Lending
Carlos Maggioli - Head
Futures Desk
Eduardo Barcellos - Head
Fabio Herdeiro
Alan Eira
Alexandre Rizzo
Celso Azem
Thierry Decoene
Hernan Livore
Bruno Giusti
Guilherme Michetti
+55-11-3073-3300
+55-11-3073-3320
+55-11-3073-3320
+55-11-3073-3350
+55-11-3073-3350
+55-11-3073-3350
+55-11-3073-3320
+55-11-3073-3320
+55-11-3073-3320
+55-11-3073-3320
[email protected] Commodities
Roberto Simonsen
Igor Petric
[email protected] Derivatives
[email protected] Fabiano V. Romano - Head
[email protected] Rafael Americo
[email protected] Marcio Caires
[email protected] Vinicius Alves de Pinho
[email protected] FX Spot
[email protected] Manoel Gimenez
[email protected] Haroldo Vasconcellos
[email protected] Stock Lending
João Victor Caccese
Private Banking Desk
Felipe Beltrami - Head
+55 11 3073-3292
[email protected]
Private Banking Sales
Caio Felipe Zanardo Val
Edgard Claussen Vilela
Frederico P. Bernardes
Guilherme Rudge Simões
Marcelo Ferri
+55 11 3073-3292
+55 11 3073-3291
+55 11 3073-3290
+55-11-3073-3150
+55 11 3073-3110
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Marco Antônio Gomes
Patrick Kalim
Ricardo Julio Costa
Robinson Minetto
Sergio Fonseca Rosa
Itaú Securities' Global Offices
SÃO PAULO
Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A
Av. Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 3400 - 10º Andar
São Paulo, SP, Brazil, 04538-132
NEW YORK
Itau BBA USA Securities Inc.
767 Fifth Avenue, 50th Floor
New York, NY 10153
LONDON
Itau BBA UK Securities Limited
The Broadgate Tower
20th Floor - 20 Primrose Street
London EC2A 2EW
HONG KONG
Itau Asia Securities Limited
TOKYO
Itau Asia Securities Limited Tokyo Branch
NBF Hibiya Bldg. 12F
1-1-7 Uchisaiwai-cho, Chiyoda-ku
Tokyo, 100-0011, Japan
DUBAI
Itau Middle East Limited
Regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong
29/F, Two International Finance Centre
8 Finance Street - Central, Hong Kong
Al Fattan Currency House, Level 3
Dubai International Financial Centre (or DIFC)
PO Box 482 034
Itaú´s Complaints Officer (Ouvidoria Corporativa Itaú) may be contacted at 0800 570 0011 (calls from Brazil), on business days, from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. (São Paulo, Brazil time) or P.O. BOX 67.600, Zip Code 03162-971.
The information herein is believed to be reliable but Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Banco Itaú S.A. may have a position from time to time. Past performance is
not indicative of future results.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale of any financial instrument. This report is prepared by Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. and distributed in the United States by Itau BBA USA Securities, Inc., and Itau BBA USA Securities, Inc. accepts responsibility for its
contents accordingly. Any US persons receiving this research and wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so only with Itau BBA USA Securities, Inc. Analysts who are not CNPI only provide the team with technical support, not issuing personal opinions.