Now Vale Officially Controls Fosfertil

(Outperform)
Fosfertil
PN
Agribusiness
Flash News
May 27, 2010
Now Vale Officially Controls
Fosfertil
Estimates and Valuation
Years
2008a
2009e
2010e
2011e
2012e
2013e
Net revenues (R$m)
3,429
2,461
2,709
3,030
3,178
3,345
EBITDA (R$m)
1,453
-174
792
1,040
1,086
1,155
773
-141
396
462
395
356
-1,317
-60
-80
388
855
1,244
Net income (R$m)
Net Debt (R$m)
EPS
1.8
-0.3
0.9
1.1
0.9
0.8
FCFE (R$m)
930
-855
153
-360
-395
-339
EV/EBITDA
3.3
-34.6
7.6
6.2
6.4
6.3
P/E
7.9
-43.2
15.3
13.2
15.4
17.1
15.3
-14.0
2.5
-5.9
-6.5
-5.6
FCFE yield
DPS (R$)
-0.6
0.0
-0.3
-0.4
-0.3
-0.3
Dividend yield
-4.4
0.0
-2.3
-2.7
-2.3
-2.0
3.2
3.4
3.0
2.6
2.4
2.2
P/BV
Source: Itaú Securities
Vale concluded the acquisition of a controlling stake in Fosfertil. Vale
announced today the conclusion of the acquisition of 58.6% of Fosfertil’s equity
Ticker (local)
FFTL4
Fair Value (10)
R$25.0
Ticker (ADR)
n/a
Fair Value (10)
n/a
Stock Data
Current price
R$
14.4
Upside (YE10)
%
73.6
52 Week high/low
R$
21.1/12.8
Share outstanding
th
422,473
Market capitalization
R$m
6,084
3-mth avg daily vol.
R$m
6.6
1m
12m
-11.7
-15.3
-4.5
n/a
Performance (%)
Absolute
Vs. Ibovespa
capital, corresponding to 72.6% of ONs and 51.4% of PNs. The stake was acquired
from Bunge, Yara, Heringer and Fertipar for US$3.0 billion, equivalent to a price
per share of US$12.02. Vale also stated that it will launch a mandatory offer to buy
0.19% of ONs held by the minorities of Fosfertil for US$12.02 per share, as
previously disclosed.
Vale also completed the acquisition of Bunge BPI’s fertilizer assets. The
portfolio of fertilizer assets was acquired from BPI for US$1.7 billion, and includes
phosphate rock mines and phosphates-producing units. The portfolio does not
include retail/distribution operations.
The acquisition of Mosaic’s stakes in Fosfertil is to be concluded in the
near future. Vale announced its intention to exercise in the near future its right to
acquire Mosaic’s direct and indirect stakes in Fosfertil for US$1.03 billion, at a price
per share of US$12.02. Mosaic’s stake corresponds to 27.27% of the ONs and
16.65% of the PNs, and to 20.27% of Fosfertil’s equity capital.
Good news for Fosfertil’s stocks. The acquisition of control in Fosfertil is good
news for Fosfertil’s stocks, in the sense that it reduces the risk of any delay in
Fosfertil’s investment plans. However, what really attracted our attention to Vale’s
press release was the statement about its intention to build a large, world-class
value creation platform, which reinforces our expectations that Fosfertil will be an
independent listed vehicle for Vale to play the fertilizer business.
We maintain our outperform recommendation for Fosfertil, with a YE10
fair value of R$25.0/FFTL4.
Cream of the Crop
Agribusiness Team
Paula Kovarsky, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3027
[email protected]
Giovana Araújo, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3036
[email protected]
Diego Mendes, CNPI
+55-11-3073-3029
[email protected]
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Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. is the securities arm of Itaú Unibanco Group. Itaú Securities is a brand name of Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A.
Fosfertil – May 27, 2010
DISCLAIMER
Itaú Securities is a brand name of Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A.
Ratings: Definitions, Dispersion and Banking Relationships (3)
Ratings
Definition
(1) (2)
Coverage
Banking
Relationship
(3)
(4)
Outperform
The analyst expects the stock to perform
better than the market average.
49%
35%
Market Perform
The analyst expects the stock to perform in
line with the market average.
42%
30%
Underperform
The analyst expects the stock to perform
below the market average.
9%
6%
1. Ratings reflect the analyst’s assessment of the stock price performance in the medium term compared
with the market average. Recommendations will be valid until the analyst changes the rating, which
may happen as a result of news or simply due to a change in the stock price (there is not a defined
time horizon).
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Financial Services, (ii) Consumer Goods & Retail + Food & Beverage, (iii) Healthcare + Education, (iv)
Steel & Mining + Pulp & Paper, (v) Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals + Agribusiness, (vi) Real Estate, (vii)
Telecommunications, Media and Technology, (viii) Transportation, Industrials and Logistics, (ix)
Utilities (x) Equity Strategy.
3. Percentage of companies under coverage by Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. within this rating category.
The ratings used herein (Outperform, Market Perform and Underperform) for purposes of the ratings
distribution disclosure requirements of FINRA and the NYSE, correspond most closely, respectively, to
Buy, Hold and Sell.
4. Percentage of companies within this rating category for which Itaú Unibanco S.A. or any of its affiliated
companies provided investment banking services within the past 12 (twelve) months, or may provide
investment banking services during the next 3 (three) months.
Third Party Disclosures
Companies Mentioned
Fosfertil PN
Ticker
Recent Price
FFTL4
14.4
Disclosure Items
1
2
3
4
5
1. Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliates have managed or co-managed a public offering for
the companies analyzed in this report in the past 12 (twelve) months, for which they have received
compensation.
2. Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliates have received compensation for investment banking
services provided to the companies analyzed in this report in the past 12 (twelve) months, and expect
to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services provided to the companies
analyzed in this report in the next 3 (three) months.
3. Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliates were making a market in the companies analyzed in
this report at the time this report was issued.
4. Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliates have acted as an underwriter of securities issued by
the companies analyzed in this report within the past 5 (five) years.
5. Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliates, funds, portfolios and securities investment clubs
managed by Itaú Corretora beneficially own, directly or indirectly, 1% (one percent) or more of any
class of common equity securities issued by the companies analyzed in this report as of the end of the
last month.
25.0
7-Apr
18-Jan
18-Sep
30.0
30-Oct
Fosfertil PN
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Underperform
UR
Source: Itaú Securities
Itaú Securities
-2-
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Market Perform
Stock Price
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Outperform
Fair Value
Fosfertil – May 27, 2010
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Luis Fernando Guido
Andre Farkas
Rogério Cunha
Felipe Almeida
Vinicius Pinho
+55-11-3708-8800
+55-11-3708-8800
+55-11-3708-8800
+55-11-3708-8800
+55-11-3708-8610
Sales - North America
[email protected] Douglas Chen
[email protected] Mario Bonilla
[email protected] Richard Cascais
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Alternative Investment Products
São Paulo
Marcelo Fatio - Head
Lizandro Arnoni
+55-11-3073-3505
+55-11-3073-3584
New York
Thomas DeCoene - Head
Roger Freitas
+1-212-710-6702
+1-212-710-6778
London
Mark Fenton - Head
Raquel Franco
Pedro Rafael
+44-20-7663-7845
+44-207-663-7838
+44-207-663-7841
Dubai
[email protected] Adriano Cantreva - Head
[email protected] Fernando Diez Notarnicola
Hong Kong
[email protected] Jack Xu - Head
[email protected] Caio Galvão
Charles Lin
Eduardo Bernardes
[email protected] Tokyo
[email protected] Kenichi Noguchi - Head
[email protected] Hiroyuki Shimizu
Itaú Securities' Global Offices
SÃO PAULO
Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A
Av. Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 3400 - 9º Andar
São Paulo, SP, Brazil, 04538-132
NEW YORK
Itaú USA Securities Inc.
540 Madison Avenue, 23rd floor
New York - NY 10022
LONDON
Itaú UK Securities Ltd.
6th Floor - 17 Dominion Street
London EC2M 2EF
HONG KONG
Itaú Asia Securities
TOKYO
Itau Asia Securities Limited Tokyo Branch
NBF Hibiya Bldg. 5F
1-1-7 Uchisaiwai-cho, Chiyoda-ku
Tokyo, 100-0011, Japan
DUBAI
Itaú Middle-East Securities
Regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong
29/F, Two International Finance Centre
8 Finance Street - Central, Hong Kong
Al Fattan Currency House (DIFC)
3rd floor – room 305 (P.O. Box: 65703)
Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Itaú´s Complaints Officer (Ouvidoria Corporativa Itaú) may be contacted at
0800 570 0011 (calls from Brazil), on business days, from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. (São Paulo, Brazil time) or P.O. BOX 67.600, Zip Code 03162-971.
The information herein is believed to be reliable but Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Banco Itaú S.A. may have a position from time to time. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale of any financial instrument. This report is prepared by Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A. and distributed in the United States by Itaú USA Securities Inc., and Itaú USA Securities Inc. accepts responsibility for its contents accordingly. Any US persons
receiving this research and wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so only with Itaú USA Securities Inc. Analysts who are not CNPI only provide the team with technical support, not issuing personal opinions.