Introdução à Economia II João César das Neves
Transcrição
Introdução à Economia II João César das Neves
Introdução à Economia II João César das Neves 1 Central bank achievement? «Many economists in fact credit central bank monetary policy as the key factor in the last decade’s reduction in inflation worldwide. I would like to believe that. I do not deny that we adjusted policy to be consonant with global disinflationary trends as they emerged. But I very much doubt that either policy actions or central bank anti-inflationary credibility played the leading role in the fall of longterm interest rates in the past one to two decades.» Alan Greenspan (2007) The Age of Turbulence, Adventures in a new world, The Penguin Press, New York, p. 390 Introdução à Economia II João César das Neves 2 The new economic world «The end of the cold war (…) has little to challenge it as the second half of the century’s most significant geopolitical event (…) Soon well over a billion workers, many of them well educated, all low paid, began to gravitate to the world competitive marketplace from economies that had been almost wholly or in part centrally planned and insulated from global competition (…) Many hundreds of millions of people, mainly in China and India, have yet to make the transition. This movement of workers into the marketplace reduced world wages, inflation, inflation expectations, and interest rates, and accordingly significantly contributed to rising world economic growth.» Greenspan (2007) op.cit., p. 382 Introdução à Economia II João César das Neves 3 Return to the old world? «The rate of flow of workers to competitive labour markets will eventually slow, and as a result, disinflationary pressures should start to lift (…) Accordingly an easing of disinflationary pressures should foster a pickup of price inflation and wage growth in the United States. (…) How the Federal Reserve responds to a reemergence of inflation and expected falling world savings propensities will have a profound effect not only on how US economy of 2030 turns out but also, by extension, on our trading partners worldwide.» Greenspan (2007) op.cit, p. 477-478 Introdução à Economia II João César das Neves 4