Global Top 10 Greenhouse Gas Emitters

APOIO
AGOSTO | 2015
Coordenador
Mario Monzoni
Vice-coordenador
Paulo Durval Branco
Editora
Amália Safatle
Coordenador de comunicação
Ricardo Barretto
Gestora de Produção
Bel Brunharo
Produção do site
Milene Fukuda
Textos
Amália Safatle, Fernanda Macedo e Magali Cabral
Revisão
José Genulino Moura Ribeiro
Colaboração Bruno Toledo
Agradecimentos à equipe
do Programa de Política e Economia Ambiental (PEA) do GVces
P22_ON é um produto eletrônico da Revista Página22.
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(http://www.fgv.br/ces)
Conheça o GVces
COP 21 E DEFINIÇÃO DE METAS ACELERAM O
DEBATE SOBRE MECANISMOS DE PRECIFICAÇÃO
POR AMÁLI A SAFAT LE
O P r otocolo de K yoto tornou- se um marco histórico ao propor uma meta global para a
redução de emissões. Em que pesem as metas pouco ambiciosas e falta de adesão de
importantes países, como os Estados Unidos, K yoto serviu como passo inicial para
conscientizar líderes mundiais e a opinião pública sobre a necessidade de combater a
mudança do clima, no âmbito das Nações Unidas.
Como o primeiro período de compromisso de K yoto se encerraria em 2012, acordou- se em
2011, durante a COP 17, em Durban (África do Sul), que o tratado deveria ser prorrogado
em um segundo período, até 2020.
Na COP seguinte, em Doha (Catar), o acordo foi fechado mas teve baixas importantes –
ficaram de fora Japão, Rússia, Canadá e Nova Zelândia, além dos Estados Unidos, que já
não tinham participado do primeiro período de compromisso. As adesões, como da União
Europeia e Austrália, somaram aproximadamente 15% das emissões totais. Por isso, o
acordo ganhou o apelido de K yotinho.
Mas foram tomadas decisões importantes, por exemplo a de incluir países em
desenvolvimento – como Brasil, China e Índia – no rol de nações que precisam apresentar
metas obrigatórias de redução no próximo tratado.
Hoje todos os holofotes estão apontados para a chamada agenda pós 2020. A costura dessa
agenda é a grande expectativa depositada na 21a Conferência das Partes da ConvençãoQuadro das Nações Unidas sobre Mudança do Clima (COP 21), a ser realizada entre os dias
30 de novembro e 11 dezembro, em Paris.
Entre anúncios de peso já relacionados às metas que serão apresentadas para a COP,
destaca-se a dos Estados Unidos. No início de agosto, o presidente Barack Obama
anunciou que a Agência de Proteção Ambiental americana exigirá do setor de energia uma
redução de 32% nas emissões de carbono até 2030, em relação aos níveis de 2005.
Este, portanto, é o momentum: todas as luzes de emergência já foram acesas e já se sabe a
magnitude da tarefa: zerar as emissões até o fim deste século, de forma a evitar que o
aumento médio da temperatura global exceda 2 graus em relação ao nível pré-industrial e
leve a mudanças ambientais catastróficas.
Segundo a Nasa, agência espacial americana, junho foi o mês mais quente dos registros
históricos: a temperatura média global no mês foi 0,8°C maior que a média do período,
sugerindo que 2015 pode quebrar o recorde de temperatura (acompanhe o aumento da
temperatura na Terra em vídeo neste site)
Agora, o desafio é saber de que forma conseguiremos reduzir as emissões, e certamente
instrumentos de precificação como o mercado de emissões e a tributação terão papel
fundamental na empreitada.
Orçamento de carbono
Ao mesmo tempo em que já se tem informações sobre o tamanho da encrenca, batemos o
recorde histórico de emissões, atingindo a concentração 401 partes por milhão na média,
o que acrescenta a essa equação um imenso fator de urgência.
Para cumprir a tarefa dos 2 graus, temos uma quantidade limitada de gases de efeito
estufa que pode ser lançada na atmosfera até 2100 – é o que se chama de orçamento de
carbono. É como a família que vive de uma renda mensal doméstica de R$ 5 mil: se gastar
tudo nos primeiros dias, não terá um tostão no fim do mês. Quanto mais usarmos o
orçamento de carbono agora, mais abrupta terá de ser a descida na “curva” dos gastos.
A quantidade que é permitida “gastar” é chamada de cap (teto). Quem consegue reduzir
além do estipulado pode é possível vender (trade) esse “excedente” aos que não
conseguiram cumprir o orçamento. Com base nesse mecanismo, chamado cap and trade, o
mercado de emissões negocia o excedente a fim de que todos atinjam o teto máximo
estipulado.
Hoje, cada uma das partes da Convenção-Quadro (UNFCCC, na sigla em inglês) deve
escolher suas metas, bem como o ano-base que servirá de referência para os cortes, e as
formas como pretende implementá-los.
O Brasil ainda não apresentou metas desde que anunciou, em 2009, a redução voluntária
entre 36,1% e 38,9% das emissões totais em 2020 em relação ao que seria emitido até essa
data, em uma projeção que considera o cenário business as usual, ou seja, as formas
convencionais pelas quais se produz e se consome. A estimativa é que o governo brasileiro
anuncie até outubro metas oficiais para levar à COP 21.
No nível internacional, partes da Convenção-Quadro debatem sobre a adoção de
instrumentos capazes de ajudar os países a cumprir seus compromissos no período pós
2020.
Depois que o Protocolo de Kyoto foi pouco frutífero ao tentar centralizar metas globais e
colocar todos os países desenvolvidos no mesmo barco, o desafio agora é outro: costurar
essa colcha de retalhos mundial formada por compromissos distintos. E encontrar formas
de ligar sistemas de comércio de emissões de lugares diferentes, com a finalidade de
aumentar a eficiência dos mercados.
O acordo global em Paris deve ter o papel de não inibir todo esse movimento bottom-up,
que emerge de diversas iniciativas espalhadas no mundo, assim como apontar uma
direção única para tudo o que está acontecendo.
Enquanto se aguarda o acordo, o comércio de emissões gradativamente ganha espaço no
mundo, com destaque para o mercado europeu (EU ETS – European Union Emissions
Trading System) e o do estado mais rico dos Estados Unidos, a Califórnia (conheça as
principais iniciativas internacionais aqui).
Os volumes transacionados no comércio mundial de emissões ilustram um crescimento
expressivo desde o início da operação do sistema europeu. Em 2011, o quantum financeiro
transacionado representou US$ 176 bilhões (€ 126 bilhões), valor correspondente a 10,3
bilhões de tCO2e. Embora o preço dos títulos tenha mostrado trajetória decrescente, o
volume negociado mais que compensou a queda, e o valor total representou um
crescimento de 11% em relação ao ano anterior, segundo dados do Banco Mundial.
A expectativa é a de que um acordo global sirva para fortalecer os sistemas de comércio
existentes e mundo afora imprimir velocidade na criação de outros que possam de alguma
maneira estar interconectados.
No Brasil, embora o Mercado Brasileiro de Redução de Emissões (MBRE) esteja previsto
pelo artigo 9º da Política Nacional sobre Mudança do Clima, ainda não saiu do papel. Em
nível estadual, existem políticas sobre mudança climática que preveem o estabelecimento
de mercado de carbono, como no caso do Rio de Janeiro e de São Paulo.
Uma iniciativa voluntária promovida pelo Centro de Estudos em Sustentabilidade da FGVEaesp (GVces) é a simulação do mercado de emissões, realizada por meio da plataforma da
Bolsa de Valores Ambientais (BVRio) e que usa como base o inventário de emissões da
versão brasileira do GHG Protocol (saiba mais aqui).
Para que um mercado de emissões seja implementado e funcione no Brasil ainda faltam
aparatos importantes. Primeiramente é preciso haver um sistema robusto que meça os
gases de efeito estufa, o que exige um inventário de emissões das principais atividades
emissoras. Mais que isso, é necessário um sistema que relate as emissões com exatidão e
acurácia, dando transparência ao processo; e que as verifique, por meio de auditoria. É que
o se chama de MRV.
É também preciso que haja instituições fortes, aptas a fazer a regulação, e um Estado,
tanto no nível nacional como subnacional, suficientemente preparado para dar
credibilidade e robustez ao processo.
No setor agropecuário, todo esse processo é mais desafiador que nas atividades
industriais. Enquanto nestas últimas existe ao menos um CNPJ a partir do qual se pode
medir, relatar e verificar as emissões, o setor agropecuário brasileiro continua às voltas
com problemas de regularização fundiária. O Cadastro Ambiental Rural (CAR), sistema
criado para auxiliar no processo de regularização ambiental de propriedades e posses
rurais, ainda enfrenta problemas de implementação. Segundo o Ministério do Meio
Ambiente, até junho 57,27% da área passível de cadastro foi cadastrada, enquanto o prazo
de preenchimento do cadastro finda em 6 de maio de 2016.
Esse é um ponto que demanda atenção para um bom funcionamento da política de
mitigação de gases de efeito estufa no Brasil. Sendo o setor agropecuário importante
emissor e sorvedouro de carbono, a fragilidade institucional dificulta a implantação de
instrumentos que poderiam jogar a favor da conservação, como os de precificação.
Para saber mais
Para obter informações mais aprofundadas sobre o mercado de carbono, acesse a série
completa de estudos do GVces intitulada Elementos para o Mercado de Carbono no Brasil,
publicada em 2013, aqui.
Também está disponível o estudo preparado pelo Banco Interamericano de
Desenvolvimento (BID) e BM&FBovespa sobre o mercado de carbono brasileiro, que tem
como subtítulo Análise Legal de Possíveis Modelos Regulatórios, lançado em 2015.
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