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The Need for International Weather Data and Related Products at the U.S. Department of Agriculture Presented to CoCoRaHS Weather Talk Webinar Series February 26, 2015 Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board WASDE Report Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board USDA Situation and Outlook Organizational Structure Secretary/Deputy Secretary OCE Chief Economist WAOB Chairperson Chief Meteorologist Interagency Agricultural Projections Coordinator USDA Contingent Joint Agricultural Weather Facility Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees Chaired by WAOB Senior Analysts Grains Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Livestock Fibers Oilseeds Specialty Crops USDA/JAWF’S Main Responsibilities • Routinely collect global agricultural weather information to determine the cumulative impact of growing season weather conditions on crops and livestock production prospects; • Provide information on weather-related agricultural developments to the Office of the Chief Economist and the Secretary of Agriculture; • Publish the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin; and • Provide crop-weather assessments for WAOB’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) lockup report. Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board U.S. Dept. of Commerce U.S. Dept. of Agriculture National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration Office of the Chief Economist Climate Prediction Center (CPC) World Agricultural Outlook Board National Weather Service/ National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Weather Data International Crop Information National Agricultural Statistics Service Agricultural Statistics Board Domestic Crop Statistics JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Source: USDA Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Source: USDA Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Price Impact of 2008 Argentina Drought Soybean prices up 40 to 50 percent: U.S. acreage up 1.5 million acres from intentions Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Sampling of Press Report Headlines - February 2015 Soaking rains to benefit Brazil coffee, sugar cane, grain crops ‐ RTRS Rain fosters soy and corn crops in Argentina ‐meteorologist ‐ RTRS Higher-than-normal temperature in north China favorable for wintering of wheat - XINHUN Hailstorm damages upto 20% wheat crops in Shahkot, Nakodar ‐ HINDUT UPDATE 1‐Cyclone threatens over 10 pct of Australian sugarcane ‐industry body ‐ RTRS 23‐Feb‐2015 11:05 ‐ MOROCCO COULD HARVEST RECORD CEREAL CROP ABOVE 10 MLN TONNES THIS YEAR AFTER FAVOURABLE RAINS ‐ FARM MINISTRY OFFICIAL + many others regarding weather impacts in other parts of the world Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Weather Data WMO Synoptic and Metar Observations • Weather has a significant impact on crop development from pre-planting to harvesting. • Weather events must be closely monitored in all crop areas as each crop is affected differently by heat, drought and other weather and climate extremes during the growing season. NWS NCEP CPC USDA Products Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board * Random sampling of available daily weather data Location of weather stations received daily via the WMO1 * Most have data since at least 1982 (many with normals) 1 Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board United Nations World Meteorological Organization Data, Products, and Services (in support of WAOB/JAWF) Secondary sources of weather data WMO (~70) Rain Gauge (900+) Data obtained by CPC from the Mexican weather bureau are incorporated into the weekly rainfall chart created for the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin and are provided separately to USDA analysts for their analysis of crop weather impacts. Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Data, Products, and Services (in support of WAOB/JAWF) Secondary sources of weather data Weekly Rainfall (mm) April 11-17, 2010 (WMO) Weekly Rainfall (mm) April 11-17, 2010 (Mexican Rain Gauge) 0-1 mm 1-10 mm 10-25 mm 0-1 mm 1-10 mm 10-25 mm 25-50 mm 50-100 mm > 100 mm 25-50 mm 50-100 mm > 100 mm The maps above highlight the differences that arise using WMO data, which are sparse in coverage, versus the supplemental rain gauge data, which provides a denser network of stations and a better representation of rainfall. Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Data, Products, and Services (in support of WAOB/JAWF) Validation using existing GIS products Estimated Rainfall (mm) April 11-17, 2010 (CMORPH) Lower (1-10 mm) Higher (~ 200 mm) Weekly Rainfall (mm) April 11-17, 2010 (Mexican Rain Gauge) Highest (> 400 mm) 0-1 mm 1-10 mm 10-25 mm 25-50 mm 50-100 mm > 100 mm Comparison with other sources of information, including satellite derived estimates (CMORPH), support the rain gauge analysis. Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Form. Salta Form. Salta Chaco Chaco Tu. Santiago del Estero Tu. Santiago del Estero Corrientes Santa Fe Cordoba Cordoba Entre Rios Entre Rios San Luis La Pampa San Luis Buenos Aires La Pampa * Corn Yields Stations in “Main Crop Area” Lower Buenos Aires * Soybean Yields Yields *Average (2005/06-09/10) Production Intensity *Source: SAGPyA Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Corrientes Santa Fe Higher 2009/10 2006/07 2014/15 Average Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Argentina Corn Yield Actual vs. Forecast MT/HA 9.00 8.00 2014 Forecast: 8.53 MT/HA, SE: 0.37 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Fcst Actual MinAg Yield Min Ag Yield f(trend, 2012 Dummy, Dec‐Jan Avg Temp, Dec‐Jan Total Pcp, Dec‐Jan Total Pcp^2 Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Soybean Production Brazil and Paraguay Para Maranhao Piaui Mato Grosso Rondonia Tocantins Bahia Soy: ~60% st 1 Corn: ~50% Goias Aw: Tropical wet and dry Cr: Subtropical Rain Soybean Production Mato Grosso do Sul Sao Paulo Paraguay Soy: ~40% 1st Corn: ~50% *Average (2005-09) Minas Gerais Minor Santa Catarina Soybean crop calendar for most of Brazil & Paraguay Planting Flower Fill Harvesting JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Major *Source: MINAG / IBGE Parana Rio Grande do Sul Production Intensity JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Brazil: Normal Daily Rainfall (mm) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Parana Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board MT Jun-18 May-27 May-05 Apr-13 Mar-22 Feb-28 Feb-06 Jan-15 Dec-24 Dec-02 Nov-10 Oct-19 Sep-27 Sep-05 Aug-14 Jul-23 Jul-01 0 April 8 Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board April 8 Mato Grosso *2nd Crop Corn Yields 2011: Above-normal rainfall, then early end to season Metric Tons Per Hectare (mT/ha) 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 Source: IBGE/CONAB 2.50 2.00 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2nd crop yield: 4.02 mT/ha (down 15.5%) Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Observed Predicted April 8 Mato Grosso *2nd Crop Corn Yields 2012: Near-normal rainfall, then unusual May / June rainfall Metric Tons Per Hectare (mT/ha) 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 Source: IBGE/CONAB 2.50 2.00 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2nd crop yield: 5.70 mT/ha (up 15.5%) Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Observed Predicted April 8 Mato Grosso *2nd Crop Corn Yields 2013: Above-normal rainfall, then scattered showers in May Metric Tons Per Hectare (mT/ha) 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 Source: IBGE/CONAB 2.50 2.00 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2nd crop yield: 5.78 mT/ha (up 13.4%) Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Observed Predicted Brazil Soybeans * State-Level Production (as % of total) Mato Grosso Parana Rio Grande do Sul Goias Mato Grosso do Sul Minas Gerais Bahia Sao Paulo Maranhao Santa Catarina Tocantins 30 19 13 12 8 5 4 3 2 2 2 Other ~2 Roraima Amapa Amazonas Acre Rondonia Santa Catarina JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Minas Gerais Sao Paulo i Rio Grande do Sul Soybean Production *Average (2005-09) Minor Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board h Parana Harvesting JUN Bahia Tocantins Mato Grosso do Sul Planting MAY e Goias Flower Fill APR c f Mato Grosso Soybean crop calendar for most of Center-South Brazil MAR b d Piaui Source: IBGE Brazil FEB a Maranhao Para * 2005 to 2009 Average JAN a – Ceara b – Rio Grande do Norte c – Paraiba d – Pernambuco e – Alagoas f – Sergipe h – Espirito Santo i – Rio de Janeiro Production Intensity *Source: IBGE Major Elements: Average Temperature, Days >=35°C, Precipitation, Days Between Rainfall Rio Grande do Sul: Jan, Feb, Mar (r2 = .99) Parana: Dec, Jan, Feb (r2 = .92) Estimated yield: 2.54 mT/ha Estimated yield: 2.78 mT/ha March Lockup: 2.45 mT/ha Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Comparison of Yield Departures From Trend Parana versus Mato Grosso do Sul 30 MGDS 20 Parana Perccent (%) 10 0 -10 -20 -30 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Pr %Diff Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board 2002 MS %Diff 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Blended Precipitation (CMORPH & WMO): Jan 1-21, 2015 Precipitation (mm) Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Blended Precipitation (CMORPH & WMO): Jan 1-21, 2015 Crop Mask (~50 mm or less) *Soy: 25% (2009-13) *1st Corn: 34% (2011-13) * Source: IBGE Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Precipitation (mm) Brazil Corn (First Crop) * State-Level Production (as % of total) Parana Minas Gerais Rio Grande do Sul Santa Catarina Sao Paulo Goias Bahia Mato Grosso Para Mato Grosso do Sul Ceara Sergipe Maranhao 23 17 14 10 10 9 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 Other States ~4 Roraima Amapa Amazonas Acre Rondonia Santa Catarina JUN JUL AUG Plant SEP OCT NOV Sao Paulo h i Corn Production *Average (2007-09) DEC In Northeast Brazil, 1st crop planted Dec - Jan (harvested May - Jul). Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Minas Gerais Parana Rio Grande do Sul MAY Bahia Tocantins Mato Grosso do Sul Harvest APR e Goias Period of Highest Intensity MAR c f Mato Grosso Corn crop calendar for most of Center-South Brazil FEB b d Piaui Source: IBGE Brazil JAN a Maranhao Para * 2007 to 2009 Average 1st a – Ceara b – Rio Grande do Norte c – Paraiba d – Pernambuco e – Alagoas f – Sergipe h – Espirito Santo i – Rio de Janeiro Minor Production Intensity *Source: IBGE Major Brazil Corn (First Crop) * State-Level Production (as % of total) Minas Gerais Parana Rio Grande do Sul Santa Catarina Goias Sao Paulo Bahia Maranhao Piaui Para Mato Grosso Mato Grosso do Sul Ceara 20 20 14 10 9 9 5 2 2 2 1 1 1 Other States ~4 Roraima Amapa Amazonas Acre Rondonia Santa Catarina JUN JUL AUG Plant SEP OCT NOV Sao Paulo h i Corn Production *Average (2011-13) DEC In Northeast Brazil, 1st crop planted Dec - Jan (harvested May - Jul). Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Minas Gerais Parana Rio Grande do Sul MAY Bahia Tocantins Mato Grosso do Sul Harvest APR e Goias Period of Highest Intensity MAR c f Mato Grosso Corn crop calendar for most of Center-South Brazil FEB b d Piaui Source: IBGE Brazil JAN a Maranhao Para * 2011 to 2013 Average 1st a – Ceara b – Rio Grande do Norte c – Paraiba d – Pernambuco e – Alagoas f – Sergipe h – Espirito Santo i – Rio de Janeiro Minor Production Intensity *Source: IBGE Major Other Climate Data / Information Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Australia Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board El Niño Source: PSD-Online Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (°C) Niño Region 3.4 2.50 1997/98 2.00 09/10 1.50 2002/03 06/07 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 -2.50 1950 1955 1960 Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board 1965 1970 La Niña 1975 1980 1985 1990 Neutral / non-Event 1995 El Niño 2000 2005 2010 1997/98 2002/03 El Niño Source: PSD-Online Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board 06/07 09/10 Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board Thank You ! 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